~ May 2023 Mid-Month Updates ~

It's that time again~!

Sit back and listen to what Rudy is seeing in the market right now

Lets start with the overall Economy in the USA. The overall vibe is fear and concern about more bank failures coming and another 2008 style crash. With juicy interest rates on cash, the wealthy are doing very well while the working class is getting crushed with inflation and cost of living. Why buy Stocks/real estate when cash is paying 5%...!? 

In the CCG world Magic continues to be plagued with anger and negativity towards HAS/Wotc. While the companies stock price has stabilized and recovered off the lows. They are enemy #1 online in the Card world.

The fact Magic is holding up this well in this economy with this kind of bad public image is almost mind blowing.

The newest Magic the Gathering set "aftermath/Epilogue" is the weakest set of the year....SO FAR. Compared to 2022 / Baldurs gate, it is still very successful. The print run is lower and many cards have decent value.

When it comes to old magic A/B/U and sealed product of all eras, i believe we are in a time that has the LOWEST NUMBER OF PEOPLE BUYING / INVESTING i have seen in my 7 years on youtube. Collectors/investors remain angry at Magic30 and the Mark Rosewater lies about reprinting a CE/ICE product. Newer MTG fans have no trust in todays sealed product. So Magic is weak on all fronts.

I still do NOT see any upticks/buyouts or solid returns in any Vintage Magic product or sealed product in the short term. I do believe the market will return to slow and normal appreciation in the coming years, but no one wants that after the COVID BOOM of easy money.

SUMMARY - MTG - Negativity remains very high, Patron skepticism on new product remains very high. Has/Wotc continues to make terrible moves that causes the brand damage. (Magic30/FiresideChat/Pinkertons/EndlessVariants/SecretLair)

In my entire life of handling MTG cards, there has never been another time with this much anger in Magic the Gathering. 

This is Peak negativity. 

This makes me Bullish.

I have been quietly deploying large amounts of capital on buying Sealed product of all eras and collections of vintage single cards. I havent spent this much since 2020 on vintage cards and sealed product.

Lord of the Rings - MTG - I believe this is going to be the most successful magic set in history. The hype towards this product is off the charts. I am hearing that allocations on this product will be tighter than normal.

Lord of the Rings - MTG - I will be offering the Collector and Commander product at release. I will be waiting a couple weeks after release before carrying the draft / set boxes. I want verification that the regular product will hold strong.

Commander Masters - MTG - No matter the high price, its going to be a crazy product and i expect it to do very well.

Pokemon - Scarlet / Violet - So far...the new block was over ordered by stores and "collectors" with the expectations that it would come out and spike to $150+. This is clearly not happening right now with prices down a modest 10% since release. This used to be normal in the pokemon world, but with the demand of the "Sword.Shield" era so high, everyone thought it would spike immediatly. Sit tight, it will age well. It needs 1-2 years to stabilize and flush out the short term timmys

Pokemon  - SWORD/SHIELD ERA - Probably the most shocking revelation is....we are in MID MAY with NO RESTOCKS / REPRINTS at any decent levels. Everyone expected huge reprints and prices crashing. Stores sold everything attempting to dodge the price drop on reprints. If we go another 90 days with no reprints....its gonna get wild. Because at that point in time, Sword/.Shield era is long gone.

Flesh and Blood - Overview - To everyones surprise, FaB has led the 2023 recovery with the largest percentage gains and growth in all CCG's. After 2022's bear market and crash, prices are now up between +20%-200% across the board in one of the wildest recoveries ever seen in modern CCG history. Truely breaktaking. In addition, i dont believe it is a bubble and i think it is due to player base growth around the world...especially in Japan. (spoke with multiple store owners/vendors about insane orders shipping to Japan)

Flesh and Blood - 10th Set Release - Dusk Till Dawn - With the announcement of the 10th FaB set having hand drawn / serialized / SKETCH cards. The market is going to be very aggressive towards this product. I expect Dusk till Dawn to be the hottest FaB set in a very long time. I expect extreme demand and sell outs worldwide on release. LSS will have multiple waves to keep the market stable. 

Flesh and BLood - GEMKEEPER - ARMPIECE - LSS/James have surprised me and stated the next cold foil fear is alreay completed and printed. I have not seen or handled the promo yet. I dont know anything about the name or art....so yes...that was a surprise. They are wanting to move forward with the next peice of exclusive gear on the 10th set release of Dusk Till Dawn. So we might be getting 2 Cold foil Rudy pieces this year. Not offical yet....but i was surprised.

Metazoo - Overview - This CCG continues to reiceve the highest amount of threats and hate in history for a card game. I will never fully understand why. THe game remains stable but the overprinting of Wilderness/UFO in 2022 did a lot of damage to the brand and trust of everyone. The company continues to adjust and tighten print runs starting with Seance to create more stability. THis appears to be working. In addition the organized play "Castors Cup/Towers" have shown solid growth and large prize pools for players. 

Metazoo - Native - This is the first set i have seen that shows solid secondary market value with "dual land/Resource" aura cards and serialized/secret rare type chase items. Seance has held solid, and if Native can perform post release for many months this is going to be a huge shift in Metazoo for the next release "WAR". Native gives me a lot of confidence in pushing forward with the zoo. i Believe the company made a lot of mistakes and has adjusted to a more polished product with Native. Very good sign.

Disney's Lorcana - I dont have much infomration on this product, but it will be offered to patrons at release. I remain skeptical on print runs/waves and true value compared to people flipping the product.

Sorcery BETA - This new game will be offered to the patrons around September as we launch the Beta Promo kits for the patrons. The demand and excitement for this CCG is very high and a lot of people are in love with the artwork and play style so far. This package will include 3 x Booster boxes + 1 x Precon Box + 1 Nude Exlucsive Promo card + 1 playmat. I dont have pricing or quantity on these items yet, but i wont have enough for all the patrons or even a quarter of the patrons.

Exclusive Arabian Night Artwork / Playmat hand drawn / sketched - This item will be offered in a small Magic the Gathering bundle as a promo item for later this year. I paid a lot of money to have this custom artwork drawn for a fun patron promo.

Weiss - Overview - Usually going in to the summers We have a lot of Weiss set releases with low quantities. I have the same 1 pallet on each release requested. Some sets sell slowely and others sellout immediatly. I would keep an eye on these.

Weiss - 2022 Recovery - I would be watching many of last years sealed boxes/sets that releases during the summer crash. These items are drying up very quickly with supply dissappearning. I think many of these boxes that crashed down to $40-$50 bucks will easilt be $100-$200+ within the next 1-2 years.

Force of Will TCG - I still love this brand and i always will, but it is so difficult to actually get the sealed product for the patrons. It has to be requested 3-6 months in advance and i dont always get the 360-500 boxes i request. In addition, looking at the last 6 releases on tcpglayer many of the boxes are almost gone from the internet completly with high prices. I have no idea whats goning to happen with this brand. I am going to stick with it, becuase i feel the risk is low and the reward is unknown.

Overall conclusion - I am probably one of the only people who remains positive in the stock market, the economy, and the CCG world. While i do  recognize the problems in everything, i dont feel enough credit is given to the Human spirit of pushing forward and figuring things out. There will always be problems and short term stress in the system. I assure everyone, we will make it, life will go on, and the world is not ending. 

My entire life people have pitched me about doomsday, global collapses, mayan calendars, Y2K, Pandemics, everything goes to zero, zombies and bunkers.

I sat at Merrill Lynch as a Broker in 2008 and everyone thought this was the end.

The S&P500 hit "666" and i saw employees have heart attacks right next to me and hauled out of the building on a stretcher.

99% of all orders in the system were selling everything.

1% of the buyers became legends.

And yet....guess what!  

In 5 years, almost every product today will have appreicated at different percentages and all the Timmy's will still say "sealed product is dead" History repeats.

Obsessed with fear and the world ending, 

The wheel in the sky will keep turning and most people will miss out...like always. 

Life is short, you better pay attention.

Thanks for staying with me

-Rudy 🐈