~ April 2022 Mid-Month Update ~

Later than normal this month, due to gathering of informatin from wizards price increase

GENERAL INTRO - 2022 is showing its true colors as a TOUGH year compared to 2021. Today, the US released GDP numbers that were actually NEGATIVE for Q1. Remember, 2 consecutive quaters of negative GDP = recession "officially" This confirms what i have been telling everyone, about the bear market in all asset classes. I personally do not believe we are headed towards a "crash" in all categories. But i expect things to remain weak. The average Stock/Equity Mutual fund is down between -10% to -20% Year to date. I believe we will continue to see big swings up and down, but i personally dont believe collectibles and equites/real estate decline much further from here. I believe we are closer to a bottom than we are a top. These are the most important times to collect/invest and not be fearful.

Magic The Gathering - MAJOR PATRON CHANGES - I am evaluating all options moving into the future at this time regarding the draft boxes on the monthly list.

I estimate with the 11% wizards price increase, this will raise my cost towards $90 and i  think it would be stupid to offer draft boxes at $95 when wizards direct (amazon) sells boxes at a normal $95-$99 all the time.

Simliarly, Paying $95-$97 for a set box and selling it for $110 doesnt feel as "exciting" anymore when Wizards direct (amazon) is normally at $110-$115.

BUT...i have had conversations with patrons regarding the idea of running more frequent magic sales on set boxes + collector boxes + supplemental items + out of print magic IN PLACE of having the draft boxes listed. This idea has been recieved very positivly.

Of course i will still be offering all magic releases at each products release date. (Set/Draft/Collector) but...post release i will focus on older items or items going out of print.

Magic the Gathering - Market Conditions - Magic is very strong in 2022. I expect this to continue all year long. I feel  they have become more aggressive with the threat of FaB in 2021 taking some market share. I feel magic will dominate this entire year. I would be surprised if any magic releases dont perform well. Even with the softer overall economy/inflation of the world, i expect all sealed product to hold up and do well. Yes the 2021 era sealed product (AFR/Stric/Hunt/Crimson) is a "bad year but those are still good products that will perform well moving forward.

Magic the Gathering's POWERHOUSE LINEUP  in 2022 

- Kamigawa

- Streets

- Double Masters 2

- Unset

- Jumpstart 2

- Commander legends 2

- Dominaria United

- Brothers War

Metazoo - Market Conditions - I have no concerns about metazoo and future releases. The fan base for this game is very loyal and they love the product and culture around it. I expect continued name recognition to expand around the world. The next set with UFO / Space them is going to be a home run set. The company refuses to increases print runs as the game continues to grow. I expect market prices will hold strong and the market will be stable. Having no 2nd edition on product lines is a very smart move. Only have reprints in big box stores or promotional events is a great move. This will hold the value and uniqueness of each release as something special. Well played.

Flesh and Blood - Market Conditions - Markets remain in a bear market with all categories of FaB showing no growth at all. Uprising will need to be a home run and i expect the set to be good and the market to be happy. BUT...Flesh and bloods future hinges on the distribution model and trust in some of its partners actually doing the correct things needed for the game to survive and have confidence in the secondary market. I remain skeptical. WHEN THE MONEY DRIES UP, STORES,COLLECTORS,INVESTORS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE WITHOUT CORRECTION ACTION TAKEN. PARTNERS NEED TO BE FIRED.

Flesh and Blood - Channel Fireball / CardShopLive - I do not know whats going on between LSS and CFB, but i suspect conflicts continue to take place between them. CFB continues to cause severe damage to consumer confidence and MANY STORES SIMPLY DO NOT WANT TO CARRY FAB due to the lack of trust from CFB and random product dumps on the market from CFB. I know multiple stores who have stopped ordering FAB from dsitribution and simply buy on "FAB DUMPS" from CFB instead.

Conclusion, FaB is an incredible game that will stand the test of time. BUT, people who jumped in and make quick money and stores who picked up the game due to profit have left and feel burned. Expansion for the game will continue internationally, while the USA market will slow and remain "stable" until corrective action is taken. This may already be taken care of with FaB 2.0 we dont know yet but the market will show us how it reveals after Uprising is released.

Pokemon - Not much to say....Junk pokemon graded slabs and third party grading companies are everywhere and they all suck and wont matter in the long run.

Pokemon - Sealed Product - I remain very bullish on all sealed pokemon even Battle Styles/Chilling Reign etc...with weaker economic conditions, i expect less product hording in pokemon. This is great news for stores and competition when product goes out of print.

Force of Will TCG - No news, print runs are the same, Most sealed boxes are appreciating and performing very well. Yes the market is thin and doesnt have huge growth, but it remains a great CCG, i think everyone should have exposure to. Cheap booster boxes at release and small print runs lead to great futures.

Weiss - Probably the most surprising market segment. Every sale i have ran has increased buyers and order size. Box sales + single sales on tcgplayer + ebay continue to increase on a monthly basis. Hololive is the next release, slightly delayed for a few weeks, but it is coming and i expect huge demand.

6.9 Year Anniversary Boxes - This is probably the product many patrons are most excited about. I have put so many months into making this thing, i hope it is successful and enjoyed by everyone. It will be fascinating to see what the secondary market will value the sealed boxes at. Many updates will come as we get 30 days out from release date. Targeting Mid June 2022.

Overall Conclusion - The public remains on edge due to Covid / Politics / wars / Bubbles / Crashes / Inflation / Step Sisters getting stuck etc....

I remain an optimist about the state of 2022 and the future. I believe more positive forces will overtake the bad things in modern times.

Many patrons are addicted to social media, and find themselves scrolling and browsing for no reason due to a secondary addiction to smart phones. Swiping non-stop on youtube shorts and tik-tok videos, your brain gets LAZY. You stop thinking critically and never have "time to get things done". Step away from the news media and think about whats important.

I dont believe things would feel as "BAD" if 2021 wasnt so successful for all assets.

The contrarian side of me, actually thinks we are better now than last year due to lack of competition. When it comes to collectibles, almost everyone is negative and bearish, which means very few people are going to build "sealed" product positions in post 2020 era products.

I dont know any large whales adding to sealed FaB / new magic / new pokemon right now.

Things are never as bad as they seem.

People who stay the course will be rewarded in a post 2020 world. 

Thankful as always

-Rudy 🐈