~ June 2021 - Market Updates ~
Added 2021-06-27 04:32:11 +0000 UTCThe infamous Rudy Rambles Market update is here~!
I firmly believe we have entered a BEAR MARKET as of 6/1/2021. The Crypto crash in May was the tipping point to shift momentum across the board. This means the expectations that all new releases in the short term will have limited upside price increases.
These time periods are usually when new collector/investors start to walk away and deleverage. This will cause an increase supply hitting the market.
I expect this to impact ALL cateogries.
I expect this weakness to last between 3 months - 12 months.
I dont expect to see a market "Collapse" or free fall.
But 10%-30% price drops are to be expected from the all time highs.
MTG - Reseved List - If you missed out on building a position in these golden era cards due to price appreciation. This is probably going to be the best time to SLOWELY start buying as prices soften. I dont expect much price decline, maybe 10%-20% but its better than nothing if you missed out. Cards from this era are becoming impossible to get. I expect supply to continue to decline as the years go by.
MTG - Modern Horizons 2 - I expect collector boxes to stay flat compared to todays prices. Everyone is waiting to see what restock and supply comes for the draft/set boxes in the coming months. No matter how you feel about the price, it is the most value packed item i have seen in a very long time. I dont expect much price movement unless wizards hits the market with tons of supply on draft/set. This will be a monster long term product once out of print +5 years.
MTG - Sealed product - I have noticed ALL sealed product in MTG has flattened out with flat to negative growth. I dont expect to see huge price drops but 5%-25% drops are possible with most products with some items experiencing larger percantage moves. This will be a good point to slowely buy on a weekly/monthly basis to build a position over the next year. Be patient, go slow....dont be a hero.
MTG - Modern - I expect to see GROWTH continue in this small segment. Modern cards and sealed master boxes have been on the rise. This is a strange outlier compared to the overall market.....go figure.
MTG - RISING PRICES - I expect wizards to continue to raise prices to record level in the coming 1-2 years. This is causing many people to walk away from mtg and move to FaB and other categories. Unfortanetly, the data shows no signs of sales slowing down even with the higher prices. I expect big price jumps moving into 2022. I expect record money for hasbro....it is what it is.
MTG - GOLDEN(90's) / SILVER(00's) BOXES - Sealed boxes from this era, i believe, will take the biggest hit in price drops. These items had the LARGEST price increase recently so i expect a substantial price drop. We could see a 30%-50% drop. Use Caution.
Pokemon - Vintage - old school pokemon cards continue to see weakness with huge percentage price drops from the all time highs on many single cards / graded cards / sealed boxes. But again...when an item goes up +900% and then drops down -200% and is still up a net +700% i dont see any concerns for long term.
Pokemon - Sealed Product - All new pokemon sealed boxes are still fantastic items. History now shows up even during eras of overprinting (XY ERA) patience is rewarded and huge gains are still possible. Data shows all pokemon sealed boxes after 3-4 years become extremly sought after.
Pokemon - Singles - This is the HIGHEST risk area right now, with millions of pokemon cards sitting at BGS / PSA for grading, the danger is higher than era for price drops. As stated a couple months ago, use extreme caution buying graded singles until the market rebalances with the coming supply wave of graded cards.
MetaZoo - We are about 3 weeks from the big MetaZoo Launch. It is going to be a big deal for the game. This is a high risk new launch product. These Alpha launch bundles contain exclusive cards and playmats with 1st edition boxes, the future value is unknown. It will be a wild ride.
Force of Will TCG - For the 1st time in 3 years, the player base and demand for sealed product and singles is growing. One of the previous distributors who dropped FoW as a game in 2018 has now started back up to expand distribution. This a very bullish indicator. Combine that with sealed product has been performing incredibly well for the last few releases. I expect this to have a very good future in the coming years.
YuGiOh! - No plans to cary the product line at this time.
Digimon CCG - No plans to cary the product line at this time.
Final Fantasy CCG - No plans to cary the product line at this time.
Dragon Ball Super - No plans to cary the product line at this time.
Weiss - My personal favorite new CCG to continue to expand into. I feel this is the most underappreciated and misunderstood product. With tiny print runs and tough to get sealed boxes. I am still going big on every new release moving forward.
FaB - Monarch Unlimited BUNDLE - I have delayed this bundle until AFTER the MetaZoo launch in mid July. This bundle will be cheap at a couple hundred bucks and loaded with multiple boxes + blitz decks + welcome decks + promo card + playmat. The quantity is a lot lower at around 700 kits so supply will be rough.
FaB - Crucible 1st ed - Prices peaked at $1,600 per box a month ago. Prices have now dropped to around $1,000 per box. I still have a price target of $2k per box in 2022.
FaB - Monarch 1st ed - With market prices sitting at $340 a box. I believe the bear market will put downward pressure and the bottom is going to be around $250-$300 a box. This will be caused by short term stores/collectors giving up and unloading. I have purhcased an additional 377 boxes so far and plan to continue on a weekly basis. The downside risk versus the upside potential is extremly attractive.
FaB - Unlimited boxes - The concept that many people believe unlimited boxes are going to be printed over and over for many years until they are worthless is going to be proven very wrong. These items should NOT be overlooked.
FaB - CONCLUSION - With organized play and a "protour" announced, the CCG continues to show impressive strength and growing player base around the world. I have absolutly zero concern about longevity at this point in time due to upcoming announcements / events / ProTours / Kingdoms all coming. People who stay the course will be rewarded.
CRYPTO - I believe Crypto is in a bear market also and prices will continue to be flat with large swings up and down in the coming weeks/months. I still hold all my positions and have no plans on reducing or selling. I feel the technology and long term impact on the world is not fully understood by anyone yet. Reminds me of the Desktop computer and internet in 1995.
Overall, we are transitioning from an INFLATION era to a repricing time period. I feel with government money printing and stimulus checks ending, the market will need to rebalance itself. The real question is...how many people are leveraged and how much unwinding will need to happen in the world. Sports cards and many CCG's are seeing huge price drops.
When the price drops (MH2) or skyrockets(Timespiral) in the short term, it really has no long term impact when out of print and time takes over. But it can take an emotional toll on the mind.
I think we have a 50/50 chance of inflation running hot forcing the government to raise rates faster than expected or the "supply shortages" level out and cooloff. Either way, prices never decline, but we can hope for signs of sideways movement and equilibrium.
I dont think this will be anything like the declines in 2020, but will test many new investors to see if they can hold on. I expect most will quit.
In an era of social media and meme stocks + doggie coins with fast profit, always keep in mind, the original goal is 5%-9% a year in growth. The returns most have experienced in the last 12 months are NOT NORMAL. I believe this will amplify the amount of people dumping inventory when the returns start to normalize. The human brain is wired for fast and instant gratification in 2021. People will not be happy with calm and boring.
U R Your Own Worst Enemy - They say working with yourself and controlling your own decisions on a daily basis is the most difficult task in life. Humans are wired to make the worst decisions on a daily basis. We all want the easy money and path of least resistance. We are all lazy and tired of the grind...which means you are on the right path.
The pain of a loss is twice that of the pleasure of a gain. People are engineered to screw up and be wrong. The key is to FAIL and rewire your brain to take on whats next. It is critical to make mistakes in life and have bad things happen, you may not understand in the moment, but you eventually will. 1 week after reading this, you wont even remember it.
I am forever Grateful of you all.
-Rudy
Comments
Rudy, thank you, all of the value you give me from the video's the emails and the monthly reports are well worth the $15. I'll keep buying $164 a month to slowly build a small lot so in five years I will sell some and buy more and grow slow. I am going to miss you when your done with all of us.
Chris A
2021-06-30 16:17:12 +0000 UTCWhat price range do you think the metazoo bundle will be?
Philip Davis
2021-06-29 22:44:10 +0000 UTCGood stuff as always Rudy, thank you
2021-06-29 11:26:49 +0000 UTCI didn't see any mention of it being a sealed box, so my theory is that it's loose packs, not a sealed box. Someone grab one and find out! ;)
2021-06-29 01:04:26 +0000 UTCwhy are Kaldheim set booster boxes only 83 on amazon
2021-06-28 22:46:34 +0000 UTCMuch love
Gage Calvin
2021-06-28 19:58:18 +0000 UTCI'm cautiously going out on ebay looking for deals on singles as people dump RL. Do you have a video on what to watch out for on ebay?
Mip229
2021-06-28 03:53:32 +0000 UTCPowerful words here and some great insight. Thanks for this, keep up the great work.
2021-06-27 23:31:05 +0000 UTCSurprised the downturn occurred so quickly after the last stimulus round, but excited to ramp up the buying earlier than anticipated
Kevin Mosher
2021-06-27 22:20:59 +0000 UTCWoohoo for Pokémon!!!
Pokémane
2021-06-27 21:36:04 +0000 UTCEasy reading, thank you Rudy!
Baltyn
2021-06-27 20:08:25 +0000 UTCGood Read as always Rudy thanks for the updates!
Gold
2021-06-27 19:14:51 +0000 UTCI wouldn’t trust the D&D pre-order prices. Look at Strixhaven. Since preorder it looked like they raised the price. Slowly coming down to around the usual pricing ($101 on AMZ right now). Minty revised Shivans might still end up a good play as the set moves into more of a collector item than a playable item. Collectors who want to build a set will need mint rares, and that was still very much the era of sleeveless play and a played card back then. Update: Just pre-ordered D&D set boxes at under $100 a box. There you go
Douglas Ortiz
2021-06-27 18:09:17 +0000 UTCBuy what you like and even if the market goes flat you have something to enjoy. I think people people have moved on from it and aren’t thinking much about the set. Lots of good reprints that caused big price drops. Usually when these big drops happen a lot of the cards will eventually creep back up, then someone will look at the TSR box EV vs price and realize it’s way off. When the waves of TSR stop getting printed, I think you’ll see a decent immediate spike.
Douglas Ortiz
2021-06-27 18:00:55 +0000 UTCI would love a retraction on duals. They just got too high for me to keep getting
Douglas Ortiz
2021-06-27 17:47:20 +0000 UTCAs prices drop on pre-Eldraine sealed products, my investment in these will increase. I think these pre-shiny era products will always mean something special to long term MTG players
2021-06-27 17:45:18 +0000 UTCIt's easy to grin, when your ship comes in, and you've got the stock market beat. The man worthwhile, is the man who can smile, when hit shorts are too tight in the seat.
2021-06-27 16:29:51 +0000 UTCI'm at Collect-a-Con in TX right now and the MetaZoo booth is one of the busiest. Lots of interest.
Scott Rogers
2021-06-27 15:52:23 +0000 UTCThat last paragraph hit at a perfect time for me 💜 I just made a rly good flip followed by a rly bad one and was way more focused on the bad last night even tho the food was twice as good I still somehow focused on the half as bad thing. So seeing that helped me calm down and re evaluate. Appreciate you and everything you do Rudy! You’re the best!
down Felix
2021-06-27 14:22:54 +0000 UTCthanks Rudy and thanks for adding in some Jordan Peterson there at the end
2021-06-27 13:30:05 +0000 UTCWise words from the sage of the CCG world. Thanks for the insight and remember long term goals.
2021-06-27 13:10:55 +0000 UTCWith metazoo, I feel the statement is borderline apprehensive and what not. You were never apprehensive about FAB. But as you said, we shall see
Paul Tufis
2021-06-27 12:54:58 +0000 UTCThis is easily the best post you have ever written. Between crypto, AMC/GME, vintage sealed video games, etc, I’ve completely been taken from reality of our initial 8% to 9% goal. It’s refreshing to see these words... especially your comment about the “grind”. Forever staying the course...
Chad
2021-06-27 12:43:27 +0000 UTCThanks Rudy! I totally agree with Weiss Schwarz! What a interesting CCG & I have never said that about any non MTG/PTCG product.
Jakestaz
2021-06-27 12:43:09 +0000 UTCThank you Rudy. Looking forward to the journey.
2021-06-27 11:49:33 +0000 UTCBear market correction was inevidible. People speculating on weird things like Shivan Dragon in Revised really got their hands bitten off. RL is the safest bet in revised, nothing else. Exceptions are like Mana Vault and the stuff that doesn't get reprinted much in masters sets but have EDH play. Feels like with standard Forgotten Realms D&D set they raised the prices a bit. Time Spiral Remastered will be in-print for a bit this year, along with MH2 and Commander Legends, no short supply out there for sure. Even Jumpstart caught up finally for its last wave probably until rotation when M21 leaves standard.
2021-06-27 08:44:11 +0000 UTCThank you once again!
John
2021-06-27 08:38:20 +0000 UTCI'm wondering what you think of Time Spiral Remastered... the set is _very_ draftable and I enjoy the drafts. I want to build some position in it, if not just to hedge against future price increases.
Jace K. Kim
2021-06-27 07:09:27 +0000 UTCThank ya papa rudy
2021-06-27 05:38:32 +0000 UTCThanks so much for the heart to heat advice - appreciate it as always, you're the best! 🙂
Brian Lee
2021-06-27 05:35:00 +0000 UTCI LOVE YOU.... NO HOMO... maybe a little?
Chris Datu
2021-06-27 05:21:49 +0000 UTCGood and fair advice as always, love you
Michael Martin
2021-06-27 05:18:24 +0000 UTCHey don’t give away secrets…as I quietly buy up Bronze Age boxes…
Andy Wilkes
2021-06-27 05:14:38 +0000 UTCI truly appreciate ya Rudy. As always, thank you for continuing these updates and your consistent distribution of content. We all know this isn't something you actually need to do. I dread the day you decide to retire. There are many copycats, but there is only one creepy Rudy. I hope ya know what an impact you have on your fan's lives, myself included. Love ya man, hope you're enjoying this ride with all of us staying the coarse.
The Cardboard Crackhead
2021-06-27 05:10:47 +0000 UTCThanks big brother/papa Rudy. These posts actually help and provide valuable insight. Not only into magic finance but everything.
Shawn
2021-06-27 05:02:51 +0000 UTCDon't use leverage in crypto. Spend only what you can afford to lose. Dont trust your emotions, ever. Stay in the mkt. Time IN the mkt beats timING the market.
Geoff Toohey
2021-06-27 05:01:23 +0000 UTC✌🏾
Craig C. Britt
2021-06-27 04:53:33 +0000 UTCStaying the course on FAB to the end
Carl
2021-06-27 04:52:39 +0000 UTCI have stopped buying MTG entirely and started to focus completely on FaB. I can just smell the fear in the air that people have for price drops. I go into most negotiations now assuming people will just give me what I want, and 60-80% of the time they do. Paper hands are folding everywhere. Its hard to put how I feel about FaB into words. It truly is a blessing to be on this wild ride, and I have you to thank for it Rudy. :)
2021-06-27 04:51:52 +0000 UTCRudy, you are pretty smart for a cat!
Neil Eldridge
2021-06-27 04:50:59 +0000 UTCThis monthly update brings me always some peace of mind. Thank You.
2021-06-27 04:48:06 +0000 UTCGotta stay the course! Cold foils are so undervalued its scary.
2021-06-27 04:46:32 +0000 UTClots of good prices now 😎😎
dank_mememan
2021-06-27 04:46:23 +0000 UTCMetaZoo!
2021-06-27 04:46:17 +0000 UTCAmazing insight again Rudy!
2021-06-27 04:45:36 +0000 UTC!!! Awesome read. Thanks Rudy, and thanks to everyone else for making this community fun and active. I'm certain we're all very appreciative and grateful as well! Hope to seeing some of you in the future at FaB GPs. Hopefully wizards gets their ass in gear too concerning Magic play.
Brian
2021-06-27 04:44:52 +0000 UTCThank you for your advice and wisdom Rudy! I appreciate you and your desire to help others navigate through the markets.
2021-06-27 04:43:44 +0000 UTCGood chat Rudy! I feel the same way on alot of what you said.
Jeffrey Lemond
2021-06-27 04:43:37 +0000 UTCWow. I mean this guy “never takes time to help with finically advice” like ever. What a pos this chalupa is. And we pay monthly subscription fees for this? Many of you should just quit now, terminate your membership and upgrade your Amazon subscription instead.
Robert Lewis
2021-06-27 04:43:32 +0000 UTCWeiss Schwarz is the move! Them autograph cards are legit! I’ve been going in hard as I feel Weiss is a safe move due to lack of printing beyond orders/demand making them extremely rare. I want to buy something… it just doesn’t exist anywhere… can’t even throw money at the issue. Just insane.
2021-06-27 04:43:09 +0000 UTCIn short, "Stay the Course!"
nathan barthels
2021-06-27 04:41:15 +0000 UTCRudy you are such a great dude and appreciate all the amazing content and support you have shown to the community over all the years I’ve been a Patreon supporter.
Zack Keating
2021-06-27 04:40:39 +0000 UTCAnd we are forever grateful to you Rudy. Keep up the class act.
Dominic Balassone
2021-06-27 04:40:08 +0000 UTCReserved list here I come
Matthew Sutton
2021-06-27 04:39:09 +0000 UTCGreat advice! I am going to be buying some duals and revised. Also FaB sealed.
2021-06-27 04:38:59 +0000 UTCRudy, with the new Dragon Ball movie in the works and the potential return of the animated series, I feel as if Dragon Ball Super could be a potential hidden gem.. I told you about the graded singles a while ago in a message and I’ve only noticed the slow increase in interest and demand for the cards. I can’t find them online for retail, I can’t find them in stores for retail.. I honestly feel as if DBS could be a potential sleeper. Pokemon wasn’t the only major hype to continue to prove its worth as a pop culture juggernaut. Dragon Ball will always be popular. Always.
2021-06-27 04:38:51 +0000 UTCGot into digimon recently I really dig it. There are about to hit on nostalgia set in October and with what they're doing with their games they're watch app and how emotionally amazing their last shows and movies were I think they're gonna hold on to a pretty cool community. Keep an eye out
Rey Morales
2021-06-27 04:38:32 +0000 UTCNo, i will remember it
KevinM
2021-06-27 04:38:21 +0000 UTCThank you for this, mister Rudy. :)
Alice Geus
2021-06-27 04:37:40 +0000 UTCRudy McMidnight strikes again!
Andrew Schulz
2021-06-27 04:37:30 +0000 UTCThanks for all your knowledge and analysis as always!
2021-06-27 04:36:34 +0000 UTCStay the course 2030
Rey Morales
2021-06-27 04:36:26 +0000 UTCBuy flesh and blood cold foils twice a month.
2021-06-27 04:36:22 +0000 UTCI am forever grateful for you as well.
2021-06-27 04:36:02 +0000 UTC🧐
Steven
2021-06-27 04:35:54 +0000 UTCRudy I was sleeping….. I mean drinking to 2000’s pop punk
Jarrod Blon
2021-06-27 04:35:11 +0000 UTC
