~ May 2021 - MID MONTH UPDATES ~

Its that time again, the most shared post of the month!

Overall - The collectible cardboard world continues to be on fire with record setting demand in almost every single mainstream CCG. This makes it very difficult to determine if a specific card game is going well or benefiting from an overall rising tide. Keep this in mind.

FaB Monarch Launch - After a long wait the release of monarch 1st edition has come nad gone. The success and data is showing that over 1,500+ LGS's are  now ordering FaB sealed products. This is the highest amount ever in the games 2 year existence. This is also the fastest growing modern day CCG to ever expand. Truely unreal.

FaB Monarch Pricing - Monarch boxes before release hit a high of $650 a box for 1st ed. The current price is averaging $400 a box. Keep in mind, on a large scale box opening, the leveled out EV of the cards inside the box are still averaging over $550+ a box. Many collectors are watching this, to see if the box prices keep falling or the single cards come down to match the sealed box price. I personally believe the single card prices will hold for 1st ed. I beleive the stores are looking to cash in on leftover 1st ed boxes and all the supply is now flushing through the market. Cru 1st ed boxes went through the exact same thing 1-3 months post release. This will be an incredible opportunity for long term sealed box hodlers. I have engaged in many private transactions already for the $300 price point for sealed monarch to rebuild my position. Goal would be 1.5k sealed boxes before backing away. These will be $1k box, im willing to take the risk.

FaB - WTR/ARC/CRU - As with all CCG's when the new set comes to down the previous sets will stabilize and do nothing as the flow of money is diverted. Between the 3 original sets, i still think even with todays high "insane" pricing there is opportunity across the board. I believe the sealed box pricing will make its way to $20k/$10k/$3k/$1k for all 4 sets of Fab.

FaB - Monarch and the future - No....it is NOT possible for 1st edition Monarch or future sets to hit 10k+ a sealed box. The higher supply and market awareness is now estabilished. At the same time, the indsutry is filled with Timmy's who have paperhands and will fold and sellout if they have no growth in a month. Long term patience is going to be rewarded. The growth will start to become more normal and stable. Parabolic gains are over, as we approach more steady price increases simliar to Poke/Mtg style returns.

FaB Unlimited - While it is unknown how many more reprints the WTR/ARC unlimited will have into the future. Do not underestimate these items. While very cheap and designed for players. Long term, the low entry point and lack of confidence as a sealed product is going to breed opportunity into the future.

FaB - future - I believe moving into next year we should start to see signs of "balancing" where supply/demand finally level out. As long as LSS continues to produce unique mechanics and balanced gameplay, the future is bright. At this point in time, i believe they can achieve that.

FaB - Supply - At this time, i have not heard a response back on Monarch Unlimited / Blitz deck bundles or restocks on WTR/ARE/CRU unlimited :-(

Pokemon - Battle Styles - I received what i believe to be the "final" restock wave of pokemon battle styles, and it was way lower than expected. I dont have any plans on running another battle styles sale to the patrons at this time. I see huge opportunity is buying on the open market for $99 a box as stores are dumping the last wave as fast as possible to make room for the next release. This is an incredble price and is a good fit for a diversified sealed product position. Keep in mind, some distributors have wholesale pokemon prices at $90 a box now!!!

Pokemon - Chilling Reign - This item will be offered at release. Pricing will be slightly below tcgplayer, but nothing dramatic. The demand is to high, i dont want a run on the product. 2 boxes per order.

Pokemon - MARKET - Overall things are finally stabilizing in the poke world. Vintage prices have dropped a LOT from the highs, but will never hit the old low prices. I believe true pricing is now being established. Im very negative on graded pokemon singles and veyr bullish on sealed pokemon

CARD GRADING - Beckett is rushing so many cards to the market to make money, the grading standards are very sloppy, so use caution and inspect the card carefully to make sure the grade is accurate. Once PSA grading comes back online and they catchup with the 5 million+ graded cards in a warehouse, i would use extreme cautions. This is going to cause a new JUNK ERA of graded cards from the mountains of new cards that are being graded. Most of these new cards will have little to no value. Be careful.

MetaZoo - Very excited to see what happens with the first promotional launch and 1st edition bundle in July. It will be up to the market to establish the pricing and to accept or reject the game long term. THe unique feel and flavor of the game will carry it far, but it is up to the comsumers to decide the future. Will be a fun ride!

Weiss - This little game continues to have record demand and sales numbers. Im very excited about the future of this game and the expanding player base. Weiss is simliar to pokemon where i woulud estimate over 50% of the collectors just like the cards and the animies and dont actually play the game. I think this style of product simliar to metazoo and pokemon is not as depended on actual gameplay. I believe Mtg and FaB are the MOST dependent on people actually playing.

MTG - Overview -  Magic continues to make decisions that are bittersweet. The market overall continues to be impressed and happy with the new releases. The anger and disappointment is focused on a couple categories. Secret lairs,price increases,single card prices/value dilution and lastly amazon. I dont see any changes for the positive on these topics in the near term. I expect it to stay in this direction unless something drastic happens like a revenue decline or a crash in the mtg market.

MTG - Standard products - With the record number of new releases, i believe wizards cutting off products early or unexpected is going to become more commonplace. I am still surprised they did a triple cut on M21/Theros/Ikoria. The last triple cut was Guilds/Alleg/War, but it took place AFTER the items were out of standard. I believe the decision is based aroudn printer capacity and inability to get a standard set reprinted due to the quantity of products being released. This is actually very BULLISH for new sealed products and potential growth.

MTG - Rotation - I expect to keep 2 standard $82 boxes available each month moving forward. Right now we have Zendikar Draft and Kaldheim Draft. I expect to drop Zendikar Draft and add Strixhaven Draft in 2 months. Unless wizards decides to shake things up, that is the plan moving forward. I expect no price increases until wizards forces me with an increase.

MTG - Modern Horizons 2 - This is going to be a monster release and is going to put mtg back to the front of attention for 2021. I expect record high prices and record high demand. I expect stores who pre-sold early to cancel orders as release date hits and prices move quickly.

MTG - Modern Horizons 2 SUPPLY - Distributors are confirming that supply is going to be bad for all 3 product lines. (Draft/Set/Collectors) While the Draft and Set boxes will get reprinted over the next 12 months, that doesnt mean anything. Since we have learned Jumpstart/Com legends type specialty products...which are PRINT TO DEMAND....never actually corrects the supply problem. I forsee no price drops and i also believe stores have learned this.

MTG Modern Horizons 2 Collector Boxes - This is going to be the messy item. The supply is the same as Comm leg Collectors boxes. It is a release wave and thats it. Prices are already over $400+  I expect prices to spike to $500-$600 . Supply will be terrible, i will not have enough for most patrons even if sold at market price without a discount.

MTG - Dungeons / Dragons - This will most likely be the best sellign standard box of 2021 and possibly of all time. Be extremly careful on this item. It is a standard product and will be bottlenecked at release during allocation period. Prices for draft boxes will level out 3 months after release. Set boxes and collectors boxes will be offered at release. Standard boxes will be offered post allcation period and as long as wizards does not raise prices they should still be the normal $82 a box later this year. Be careful...think mystical archives type card values. Do not gete financially crushed early on.

MTG - Reserved List -  The reserved list has been VERY QUIET. Almost suspiciously quiet. The amount of dicsussion and negativity towards the reserved list has hit a low recently. The prices have stopped climbing and are mostly trending sideways. THis is the time to see how strong the market is, when price appreication stops, many people tend to sell before the dip happens. As of right now, very little selling and downward pressure exists. This is very different compared to 2018. I believe we could be setting up another long leg upwards in price in 2022 if we trend sideways for the rest of the year. 

Force of Will TCG -  Distributors who dropped Force of will TCG in 2018 have now signed back up with the new management and are expanding distribution. This is a big deal. Preorders for LGS's around the country have also increased to the highest level in years. Prices on  the secondary market have not declined in 2 years now. I know its a quiet topic and FoW does not get the attention it used in 2016 but this should be monitored. If a spike in growth happens, we could see massive upticks in sealed products. Very small amounts of people actually have sealed FoW items in 2021.

Final Fantasy TCG - I am shocked at how well FFTCG has been performing. It looks like it is here to stay and the prices have been on a tear. Sorry still no plans to add the product line. I dont have the logistiics or time to bring on additional items.

Digimon TCG -  The managment are continuning to surprise the market with successful releases in the last year. I am still very skeptical on the company behing the game, and will be passing still. I like the game, but i dont trust the company. I gotta stay away.

ECONOMY - Based on the governments actions, i expect continued money printing and spending unlike anything we have ever seen. While turmoil will always be a part of life due to how fast information spreads, the opportunity to make money has never been higher. The collectors/investors who have the stomach and stability to invest will do very well. I expect turbulunt stock prices but still upward trending. I expect continued real estate growth in areas like Florida/Texas as populations shift from California/New york. I expect Crypto and collectibles to perform well even with large short term swings.

Crypto - All year long i have expanded and built positions in most of the top 20 coins/tokens. Yes i hold all my coins even in the drops/crashed. Most of my coins ETH/ATOM/ALG/XTZ are all staked for an average 6%. I dont care about the price swings daily, but i do expand on every 20% drop. I am not smart enough to understand the details of the technology but i am smart enough to recognize something major in human advancements. I want to be a part of it. Its not going anywhere long term. This is something i feel everyone should be purhcasing some every month over a long period of time, simliar to a retirement account to average out the price swings.

Inflation - I know its weird sounding, but i do believe there will be a time when the government realizes inflation is outta countrol and will raise interest rates and throttleback on the spending. It could be tomorow or 10 years from now. Predicting the "timing" of the market is impossible. The good news is when that day finally comes, investing in corporate bonds will finally become more attractive with good yields. 

Conclusion - Magic is going to continue to break records in sales and profit. All other CCG's will continue to also look like rock stars with record demand and price increases. The nasty reality is...in 24 months when all these items are out of print, no one will even remember the short term price swings up or down. The memory and attention to detail on every product is at an all time low. This is due to how many products exist and how fast the market moves. I have argues with other collectors/investors that this could lead to tremendous growth on all new release products since most people cannot keep up. One of the things i think about when filming videos is making sure there is a record of these events as time moves on. I truely believe most things happening will be forgotten in the future. 

I never could have imagined in 2016 when this all started we would be in 2021 with so many products and the rate of change and price swings are just so FAST.

The last 5 years have proven that once again, anyone who can hang on and be a part of the Cardboard world will be rewarded big time. 

I expect the next 5 years to FEEL DIFFERENT but perform EXACTLY THE SAME.

And just like the last 5 years....most people will miss out.

Thanks again for everyones support

-Rudy

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