SUPER BOWL PICKS!

Well, here we are. After days and days of trying to figure out who to pick in possibly the most-even Super Bowl matchup in recent memory - and after switching these picks multiples times throughout the week - I think I finally have my answers. So without further adieu, here are my Super Bowl picks for the game, the spread, and the over/under.

CHIEFS @ BUCCANEERS

GAME PICK: BUCCANEERS

SPREAD PICK: BUCCANEERS (+3)

OVER/UNDER: 56 - OVER

ANALYSIS

When you go back and look at the first time these two teams played, I honestly feel like the Buccaneers were more "in" that game than the halftime score may have indicated. Yes, the Chiefs jumped out to an early lead because of some horribly ill-advised coverage calls from Todd Bowles that got corrected by the third quarter, and yes Tom Brady did throw two interceptions (one on a bad bounce off a helmet)...but overall I felt like Tampa Bay's problems were more tied to execution than just outright bad game planning.

Remember that in the second half of that game, the Bucs came roaring back and had the Chiefs on the ropes with only a three point deficit and four minutes to play (with two timeouts in their back pocket as well!). It took a herculean effort from Patrick Mahomes to keep the ensuing Chiefs drive going long enough to burn the entire remainder of the clock and keep Brady off the field. If the Bucs managed to get that ball back, I honestly think they could have (and would have) won.

And no, before you say it, that second half Tampa comeback was NOT because of the Chiefs "taking their foot off the gas". KC never, EVER takes their foot off the gas these days, especially against Tom Brady. The Bucs just straight up outplayed them in the final two quarters, and they ran out of time. Believe it or not, that game was far closer than anyone seems to remember.

But anyway, back to why I like Tampa Bay to potentially upset KC in round two...I think their game plan the first time around was excellent. They recognized that the Chiefs defense was going to completely sell out to stop Chris Godwin in the slot by calling tons of Vice coverages (bracket on a number two receiver), and spins into Cover 1 Robber looks (man coverage with a robber zone over the middle to help against inside releases), and so to counter that, Brady took endless shots to Mike Evans, Antonio Brown, and occasionally Rob Gronkowski instead. The plan was sound, and they got all of the matchups that they wanted for several favorable one on ones...they just couldn't connect on those passes down the field.

Brady and Evans' chemistry at that point in the season was still way off, and even in the weeks leading up to that first game against KC the Bucs had missed on 22 STRAIGHT deep passes. The entire Bucs passing game was a hot mess of inconsistency, and even though the Chiefs were basically begging to get taken advantage of by Evans being left out on an island all game long...the Bucs simply could not capitalize and punish them for it until late in the fourth quarter when the deep balls finally started hitting.

Honestly, if Tampa walked into that stadium today with the exact same game plan as before, I think they could have a ton of offensive success simply because their deep ball chemistry has improved so much since that Chiefs game. Keep in mind that Tampa had their bye week following that loss, and they spent it primarily trying to fix their timing and placement issues deep down the field - and that focus worked! Since that bye week, the Bucs are undefeated, and have skyrocketed from hitting only 35% of their 20+ yard attempts before the KC game, to 60% since that game. Tampa has completed more deep balls than any other team, for more yards than any other team, and Brady has thrown six deep touchdowns in the last seven games with zero deep interceptions.

This passing game is FINALLY functioning like it's supposed to, and that has been a big boon for Mike Evans. He averaged 5.5 catches for 98 yards per game over the last four weeks of the regular season, with a monstrous 17.9 yards per catch. If the Chiefs leave him on an island all game once again while focusing all of their efforts on Godwin instead - and we don't really have any reason to think they won't do that again - then I could easily see this turning into a huge game for Mike out on the boundary.

At the end of the day, I think this game comes down to two things - number one, can the Bucs limit those big plays from Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce that cost them big the first time around? And number two, can Brady and Evans use their newfound chemistry to pop some big plays of their own when they need them the most? In my opinion at least, the answer to both of those questions is YES.

I fully expect this game to be a high-scoring, offense-centric affair, but I just can't shake the feeling that the Bucs are somehow going to pull off this upset. I know the Chiefs are a juggernaut, and the "smart money" is on them to win (as it should be), but I can't get that second half "almost-comeback" out of my head. The Bucs had them down on the mat. They HAD them...but still let it slip away on one great knock out blow late from Patrick Mahomes. This time around, I don't think they let Mahomes get off the mat again. 

Buccaneers 35 - Chiefs 33.