Week 6 NFL Game Picks!

GAME PICK RECORD: 51-25-1

SPREAD PICK RECORD: 41-31-5 (53.2% win rate vs the spread)

TEXANS @ TITANS

GAME PICK: TITANS

SPREAD PICK: TITANS (-3.5)

ANALYSIS: The Titans seem to have not missed a beat *at all* as they blew out the Bills, despite barely even practicing for two weeks, and they did all of that damage without even having their best defensive player – Jeffrey Simmons – on the field. Simmons is back this week off the Covid/reserve list, and at least going into week six he has the second highest rate of pressure for any defensive tackle in the league behind only Aaron Donald. He’s going to be a monstrous problem for the Texans to deal with, on top of all the *other* problems the Titans present like A.J. Brown, Derrick Henry, Kevin Byard, and Jonnu Smith. Tennessee is one of the most talented teams in the entire league, and they just so happen to be one of the most well-coached teams as well. I just don’t think that Houston has enough juice, either offensively or defensively, to win this game (unless Deshaun carries the team all by his damn self for the 50th time, I suppose).

RAVENS @ EAGLES

GAME PICK: RAVENS

SPREAD PICK: RAVENS (-10)

ANALYSIS: The Eagles are still dealing with some notable injuries, including DeSean Jackson and Lane Johnson, and they are expected to have their fifth offensive line combination in six games with rookie Jack Driscoll being back in the lineup at right tackle. When you really look at this team, at this point it’s a shaky Carson Wentz throwing to an incomplete receiving corps behind a patchwork offensive line that is backed up by an inconsistent defense. That is NOT the recipe for slowing down a juggernaut like the Baltimore Ravens. I think in particular, Nate Gerry is going to prove to be a liability for Philly, as he has neither the speed to contain Lamar Jackson in the run game, nor the coverage ability to handle Mark Andrews in the passing game. If the Ravens just make it their mission to attack him on every single play, they’ll do just fine.

FALCONS @ VIKINGS

GAME PICK: VIKINGS

SPREAD PICK: FALCONS (+4)

ANALYSIS: If Dalvin Cook was playing in this game I would feel more comfortable with picking the Vikings to cover here, but with his absence I am instead going to go with the Falcons keeping this game close and hanging in there until the bitter end. Mattison is a very good running back, don’t get me wrong, but there’s just no replacing Dalvin – he’s special. Julio Jones is back, and it sounds like Russell Gage may be back this week as well. That means the entire Atlanta receiving corps – one of the very best in the league – will be on the field to take advantage of a young and extremely inconsistent Vikings secondary. I expect this to be a high-scoring, back and forth game that smashes the over/under of 54, and in the end I think Minnesota wins by a field goal.

BROWNS @ STEELERS

GAME PICK: STEELERS

SPREAD PICK: STEELERS (-3.5)

ANALYSIS: I think the Browns are going to really struggle to move the ball on the ground in this matchup. The Steelers have a dominant nose shade in Tyson Alualu, which makes it hard on a zone system to get going in the first place, and Pittsburgh’s two edges – T.J. Watt and Bud Dupree – tend to fly down the line of scrimmage to play the back side cutback lanes before ever turning their attention to bootlegs. If Cleveland wants to move the ball here, they are going to have to pass – and pass A LOT. That means booting early and often to take advantage of the outside linebackers’ aggressiveness, and really trying to emphasize the vertical passing game to try to get Terrell Edmunds or Mike Hilton matched up on islands with Odell Beckham or Jarvis Landry. If Baker can survive long enough to really stretch the field and throw bombs (a big “if”, I know), then Cleveland has a chance here. If the offensive line can’t hold up though, then the Browns are in for a long, long day. In the end, I have a bit more faith in the Steelers defense here, so I’ll pick them to cover.

BENGALS @ COLTS

GAME PICK: COLTS

SPREAD PICK: BENGALS (+7)

ANALYSIS: The Colts defensive line is tremendous. Grover Stewart, DeForest Buckner, and Justin Houston are all having tremendous seasons, as is the Colts’ entire linebacking corps. I think the Bengals are going to get damn near nothing on the ground today, and if Cincy wants to stay competitive they are going to have to just let Burrow operate the quick passing game and get the ball out before that D-Line can get home. It’s not a perfect game plan, but it’s probably the only one they’ve got that this point. The only reason why I think the Colts don’t cover that sizable 7-point line is the fact that the Colts don’t really have a great offense themselves, and if the Bengals defensive tape from last week is any indication, they might actually be able to slow down this Indy run game a little bit. I think this is going to be a defensive slog on both sides, with the Colts narrowly winning by a field goal-ish….let’s say 17-15 is the final score.

LIONS @ JAGUARS

GAME PICK: JAGUARS

SPREAD PICK: JAGUARS (+3)

ANALYSIS: I know that D.J. Chark is back for the Jags – which is huge – but I still just don’t really understand how good or bad this Jaguars team is. Some weeks they show up and play extremely well, and then some weeks they fall flat, like their game against Houston. I never really know what to expect from them. But, that being said, I am still picking them to win this game and to cover because I *do* know what to expect from the Lions, and that’s poor run defense, inconsistent pass protection, and Matthew Stafford desperately trying to do everything he can to rescue a sinking ship. The Jags might not be good, but at least they can beat the Lions – I know that much.

BEARS @ PANTHERS

GAME PICK: PANTHERS

SPREAD PICK: PANTHERS (-1)

ANALYSIS: The Bears may be 4-1, but I still think the Panthers have looked like the better overall football team this season, even with their 3-2 record. Teddy Bridgewater is playing the best football of his career, Robby Anderson is emerging as a legit WR1, and even Mike Davis has looked like a damn good running back in place of the injured Christian McCaffrey. Everything seems to be going right for the Panthers these days, while Chicago seems to only be hanging on by the robust thread that is their defense. Don’t’ get me wrong, Chicago’s defense absolutely is good enough to slow down this Carolina offense and keep the game very close, but in the end, I just trust Bridgewater and Joe Brady to put up points a lot more than I trust Nick Foles and Matt Nagy. The Bears are very much in the “I’ll believe it when I see it category” for me right now, so give me Carolina to cover and win this game by 2 or 3 points.

WASHINGTON @ GIANTS

GAME PICK: GIANTS

SPREAD PICK: GIANTS (-3)

ANALYSIS: I’m not really sure what to expect from Washington right now. Kyle Allen is just as turnover prone as Daniel Jones, they lack explosive weapons other than Terry McLaurin and Antonio Gibson, and their defense is highly inconsistent – particularly in the linebacking corps and secondary. I don’t really know what I’m getting from Washington in the “Kyle Allen era”, so I feel more comfortable betting on Daniel Jones and Darius Slayton to make some deep ball magic happen and win this game (which says a lot, I know). I could very easily be wrong here and Washington could come out and force Jones into a ton of mistakes under pressure, but I just don’t feel *great* about betting on them at the moment. Honestly, I would just wait one more week and see what they look like with a full game under Allen before betting on their games at all. I probably won’t touch them this week, just out of an abundance of caution.

BRONCOS @ PATRIOTS

GAME PICK: PATRIOTS

SPREAD PICK: PATRIOTS (-9)

ANALYSIS: Drew Lock is back this week, but he is still playing on a bum shoulder with limited weaponry due to injuries. Noah Fant, Melvin Gordon, and K.J. Hamler are all out, and obviously they are still without Courtland Sutton as well. I just can’t see this banged up Broncos offense getting much done against a loaded Pats defense, plus the Patriots are getting Cam Newton back this week, who was playing magnificently before his Covid diagnosis. The 9-point line honestly seems a bit small to me, all things considered. If Denver was fully healthy with *all* of their stars, I honestly think they could have won this game…but now? Yeah, give me the Pats by double digits.

JETS @ DOLPHINS

GAME PICK: DOLPHINS

SPREAD PICK: DOLPHINS (-9.5)

ANALYSIS: Fire Adam Gase, please. Let this nightmare end. I’m begging you.

PACKERS @ BUCCANEERS

GAME PICK: PACKERS

SPREAD PICK: PACKERS (-1)

ANALYSIS: Words cannot state just how devastating that Vita Vea injury was, and *will be* for the Bucs run defense going forward. It’s extremely hard to stop a dominant zone running game like Green Bay’s without an equally dominant nose shade – which Vea absolutely was this season. Without him on the field, it’s going to be a lot harder on these linebackers to get into their fits, and I think Aaron Jones is going to have a lot more creases to work with. Throw in the fact that Davante Adams is now back in the lineup for the Packers, and Aaron Rodgers is playing as well as he *ever* has, and I think that’s a recipe for a big Packer win. Tom Brady, Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin should be able to go blow for blow with Rodgers and the crew, but in the end, I think it’s the *other* Aaron – Aaron Jones – that will be the difference in the fourth quarter.

RAMS @ 49ERS

GAME PICK: RAMS

SPREAD PICK: 49ERS (+3)

ANALYSIS: Yes, I know that the 49ers just had their doors blown off by the Dolphins last week, but hear me out here. Brian Allen was starting at corner for San Francisco in that game because of a concussion for Emmanuel Mosley, and in just the first half alone Allen gave up 124 yards through the air! The Dolphins went up and down the field almost exclusively by targeting him, and Jimmy Garoppolo clearly came back a week early and couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn on that bad ankle. This week, however, Mosely should be back in the lineup, and even if he’s *not*, his replacement will be Akhello Witherspoon instead of Allen. That alone is a huge “addition by subtraction” for the 49er defense. I still definitely think that the Rams can have some success on offense, but by no means do I expect them to be as effortless as the Dolphins were without Allen to pick on for every single play.

On the other side of the ball, Garoppolo’s ankle reportedly feels much better this week, which will help with his ability to rotate and throw accurately, and Jimmy G’s weapons are healthier than they’ve been all season as well. I think we are in store for a highly competitive, high-ish scoring game that goes back and forth to the end, with the Rams VERY narrowly winning by only 1 or 2 points. I like the 49ers to cover this week.

CHIEFS @ BILLS

GAME PICK: CHIEFS

SPREAD PICK: BILLS (+5)

ANALYSIS: The Bills are an explosive offense, but I think they just have too many holes on defense to hold down this KC offense for four quarters. Matt Milano is injured, and he’s both their best run defender *and* their best coverage linebacker, and outside of Tre White the Bills STILL don’t have any other good corners. Don’t get me wrong, this is an extremely talented team that can put up points like crazy in short order, but if this game ends up as a shootout, I trust KC’s defense to get more stops.

CARDINALS @ COWBOYS

GAME PICK: COWBOYS

SPREAD PICK: COWBOYS (-1)

ANALYSIS: People forget that once upon a time, Andy Dalton was a legitimate MVP candidate that was leading an undefeated Bengals squad deep into November. When he is surrounded by talent, Dalton can sling it, and boy does Dallas have tons of talent to work with. This is arguably the most frightening receiving corps in the league, and they get to feast on a Cardinals defense that just lost Chandler Jones - their best player by far - for the season.

Kyler and Hopkins will surely do their best to keep pace with Dallas’ explosive passing game, but their margin for error is virtually nonexistent. If DeMarcus Lawrence has another vintage performance this week and ends a couple of drives all by himself, just like he did last week, that will probably decide the game.