Week 17 NFL Game Picks

Record so far this season: 149-91

Well, this is it. The final week of the regular season is upon us, which means we only have this one last week of picking a full sixteen-game slate. Let’s try to make it count and get to at least 160 correct picks on the season!

DOLPHINS @ BILLS

I think the Bills are a unique challenge to face with Josh Allen at quarterback. They can run the ball, their defense is still really tough up the middle and can take over a game, and you never know when Allen is going to uncork a beautiful deep ball for a huge chunk of yardage. Obviously this team is still a couple years away from serious contention, but they are a tougher out than you might expect. I think they finish the year on a strong win at home and try to carry some momentum into an important offseason for their rebuild. 

LIONS @ PACKERS

The Packers are playing better in the last few weeks under Joe Philbin – especially on offense. It might not be enough to turn his interim title into a permanent one, but the locker room certainly wants to keep him around and they are playing hard to save his job. Meanwhile, the Lions are fighting off tons of crucial injuries and seem to be limping into the offseason before they inevitably reshape a lot of the roster next Spring. I think the Pack wins this game rather convincingly, and at that point the front office will have some big decisions to make about their coaching search.

JETS @ PATRIOTS

The Patriots in Foxborough in December are one of the most daunting home field advantages in league history. I really like the Jets’ young core that they have been building, but I very strongly doubt that it will be enough to beat a dialed in Brady and Belichick at home. Darnold will have to play out of his damn mind to keep this game close…though to be honest with how well he has played this year I wouldn’t be surprised if he does at least put up a lot of points in this game. I think the Jets’ future is extremely bright on both sides of the ball (I see you, Jamal Adams).

PANTHERS @ SAINTS

The Saints have the first seed no matter what, so they are starting Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback. Normally I would say that New Orleans starting a backup would be a big disadvantage against Carolina, but Teddy is still good enough to be a starter on some teams in my opinion, and the Panthers are starting a backup QB of their own due to Newton’s injury so it all kind of evens out (actually technically he’s the backup’s backup, but whatever). The Panthers have completely fallen off the face of the earth since their strong 6-2 start, and I think that ultimately they will end the year on an eight-game losing streak while Bridgewater shows off why he still deserves a starting position somewhere in the league. Keep in mind that Teddy is a free agent this offseason, too – this game could make him a hell of a lot of money if he plays like I expect him to.

JAGUARS @ TEXANS

The Texans wanted to be able to rest their starters during this game and coast into the two-seed in a couple of weeks, but noooooo they just HAD to lose to the Eagles last week….ugh. I fully expect the Texans to win this game handily just like they did the last time they played the Jags back in week seven, but with so many injuries on their roster right now, the last thing they need is to take some more punishment from a tough, prideful Jacksonville defense. I just hope that Houston can leave the game completely clean and devoid of more injuries before the playoffs start next weekend, because they are going to need all hands on deck if they want to survive an AFC Wildcard round full of very, very strong teams.

COWBOYS @ GIANTS

The Cowboys will be the four seed in the NFC no matter the outcome of this game, so I fully expect them to rest most if not all of their starters during this game. The Giants have also played much, much better in the second half of the season on both sides of the ball (yes, even their offensive line has improved), so if you combine the Giants no longer being a dumpster fire with them playing against Dallas’ second stringers, I think you have a recipe for a Giants victory. My main question about Big Blue is now this – what happens with Eli in the offseason? Will the Giants go all in on the Bridgewater or Foles sweepstakes? Don’t be shocked if they do.

FALCONS @ BUCCANEERS

If you like games with absolutely zero defense involved, that’s what I think this matchup is going to become this afternoon. Matt Ryan and Jameis Winston are going to be throwing bombs all day long against each others’ soft secondaries, and I would not be in the least bit surprised to see Mike Evans and Julio Jones combine for 300 or more yards receiving. Ultimately, I think the Bucs will win the game, but I think the score will be something wild like 40-37. Just to throw in one more added prediction, the game winning field goal will be at least 55 yards as time runs out.

RAIDERS @ CHIEFS

If the Chiefs lose this game, I’ll eat a shoe. That would be straight up unbelievable to me to go from being a slam dunk first seed to a wildcard team just because of a loss to the Raiders of all teams. 

CARDINALS @ SEAHAWKS

The Cardinals can’t stop the run to save their life, and now they are going up against one of the best running teams in the league…on the road…in a game that said running team REALLY needs to win in order to avoid going back to Chicago again next week. Yeah, sign me up for the Seahawks in this one. I have never been more confident in a running back getting 100 yards and two touchdowns than I am in Chris Carson today. This one’s a lock.

49ERS @ RAMS

Speaking of teams that really need to win in order to preserve their playoff seeding, the Rams have a crucial game this week against the Niners to protect their current playoff bye. If they lose and the Bears win, they drop down to the three seed and have to likely host the Eagles again in the Wildcard round before taking another road trip to Soldier Field (which they want no part of, trust me). So because of that, I think we won’t see the Rams rest a single starter this week that they don’t absolutely have to. They’ll be playing balls to the wall in order to protect that playoff bye, and winning this game could be the difference between an NFC Championship appearance and a first round exit. 

CHARGERS @ BRONCOS

The Chargers, just like the Chiefs, are going to be playing all-out in order to give themselves the best possible opportunity at claiming the one seed. However, if they see that the Chiefs are up big against Oakland (which would basically lock the Chargers into the fifth seed), I would not be surprised to see LA begin to rest starters in the second half. I do think that either way they will beat the Broncos because Denver’s injuries are substantial and the locker room seems to have quit on Vance Joseph, but if you’re betting against the spread this game is a really tough one to predict. The final score in this game might be more influenced by the Chiefs-Raiders game than you expect. 

BEARS @ VIKINGS

Just like the Chargers, the score in this game will heavily depend on the score in the Rams game. If the Niners keep it close against the Rams, I would pick the Bears to win because they will still be fighting hard for that second seed and they are flat out a better team than Minnesota. If the Rams are blowing the Niners out, however, I would expect the Bears to start resting starters and likely take a meaningless loss against a Vikings team that absolutely NEEDS this win to survive. And keep in mind that if the Vikings win this game, they will have to turn right around and play against the Bears yet AGAIN in the playoffs next week – we might see Matt Nagy really hold back on all of his “good stuff” unless he absolutely needs it. A vanilla Bears game plan on both sides of the ball wouldn’t surprise me…but again it all depends on the Rams game. Overall, I expect the Vikings to win.

BROWNS @ RAVENS

I cannot wait to watch this game! There are so many interesting subplots – can the stout Browns run defense contain Lamar Jackson? Can Baker Mayfield continue to be an absolute wizard inside a messy pocket? Can Gus Edwards keep making a case for himself as the Ravens’ RB1 going into 2019? There’s a lot to love about this matchup, and I think it’s going to be the closest game of the week. Like…I think whoever wins it will win by one point, probably on a field goal, and probably as time runs out. Mark me down for the Ravens to get the victory, but if you’re betting the spread I would go with Cleveland +6. This could be the beautiful beginning to a long and entertaining rivalry between Baker and Lamar – get stoked!

EAGLES @ REDSKINS

The Redskins are a mess right now, mostly due to their insane number of injuries. Alex Smith, Jordan Reed, Brandon Scherff, Quinton Dunbar, Shawn Lauvao, Derrius Guice, and Colt McCoy (among others) are all gone at this point. If Washington stayed healthy all year long, we probably would have seen them win the division and challenge Chicago for the three seed, but now? Now they are just trying to finish with a .500 record. If there was ever a coach that I would give a “pass” to on the season because of his injury situation, it’s Jay Gruden. 

BENGALS @ STEELERS

The Steelers need a few things to go their way this week for them to still win the division and sneak into the playoffs, but it all starts with beating the Bengals. Just like the Skins, Cincinnati has been devastated by a lot of key injuries this year – Andy Dalton, A.J. Green, Tyler Boyd, Tyler Eifert, Carl Lawson, Dre Kirkpatrick, Tyler Kroft, Vontaze Burfict, and Jake Fisher will all miss this game – so I feel like the Steelers should be able to handle them fairly easily. Not to mention that this game is also in Pittsburgh and James Connor is coming back, so everything should go the Steelers’ way in this matchup. I’m not 100-percent sure about it obviously because no win is EVER guaranteed when Mike Tomlin is involved, but still…I would be pretty shocked if PIT lost this game.

COLTS @ TITANS

This week’s Film Room was focused solely on this game. And in that episode, I laid out a whole bunch of reasons why I expect the Colts to win and why Indy could be one of the most dangerous sixth seeds we’ve seen in quite some time. I’ll spare you the 15-minute watch though and just boil it all down to this – when Andrew Luck was on a terrible team, he was a problem. But now that he’s backed up by a legitimately GOOD team, he’s a nightmare. If the Colts make the playoffs, we’re all SCREWED.