Week 13 NFL Game Picks

Picks Record So Far: 107-59

I'm currently writing this from my hotel in Georgia before I go watch the Ravens take on the Falcons tomorrow. Unfortunately the WiFi in this hotel is so damn spotty that it took me way, WAY longer to get this thing posted than usual, so I'll keep it short just so I can actually get this thing posted this week. With that said, let's pick some games!

BEARS @ GIANTS

Chicago has the best defense in the NFL, and with or without Mitch Trubisky I fully expect the Bears to be able to grind this thing out. Even with all of Big Blue's skill position talent, I don't think they are good enough up front to give Eli the necessary time to actually use all that talent. 

CARDINALS @ PACKERS

As many problems as the Pack has had, Arizona's problems are worse on both sides of the ball. I think we'll see an offensive explosion from Green Bay in this game - Aaron Jones owners rejoice!

COLTS @ JAGUARS

The Indy offense just rolls on and on. Andrew Luck is playing like an MVP candidate, and even without Ryan Kelly his offensive line was sufficiently stout last week against Miami. The Jags defensive front can cause some problems, but overall I still think the Jacksonville offense is too terrible for the defense to carry them to victory. I would be very, very surprised if the Colts don't win this game by at least a touchdown. 

BROWNS @ TEXANS

I think the margin in this game is razor thin. The Browns can't block the Texans pass rush, but the Texans can't block the Browns either. This just smells like a knock down, drag out 13-10 brawl to me. Even though both of these offenses have played well lately, I think their respective defenses will command the game, with Houston ultimately narrowly coming out on top. 

PANTHERS @ BUCCANEERS

I know that Carolina has been on a bit of a skid lately, but I would still take them over Tampa every single time. Schematically they match up very well against the Bucs (cough cough start Christian McCaffrey in your daily leagues), and I think this is a great game for them to finally "get right" and show why they were at one point considered one of the NFC's dark horse contenders. They won't win the division, obviously, but a wild card push still isn't out of the question. 

BILLS @ DOLPHINS

I like the Bills to grind out a close win in this game. The Buffalo defense is extremely grimey and will probably drag Miami down into the mud and force them to fight to the bitter end, and something tells me that if the Bills can keep this game within a field goal in the final minutes they can put together a clock-killing touchdown drive to seal the victory. It will be a really tough game, but if there is any team that feels at home in tough, ugly games this year, it's the Bills.

BRONCOS @ BENGALS

The Bengals are now down their starting quarterback and both starting tackles in this game...against Von Miller and Bradley Chubb. Yeah, good luck there, Cincy. You'll need it. I expect the Denver defense to absolutely tee off on the Bengals this week and put the Broncos firmly back in the race for the last AFC wildcard spot. 

RAVENS @ FALCONS

The Falcons really do not match up well with Baltimore right now. They can't run the ball (and Baltimore's front seven is elite against the run anyway), they can't stop the run (and Baltimore's rushing offense has been dynamic as of late), and they can't get out of their own way when it comes to clock management (something that John Harbaugh has been very, very good at over the years). The Ravens may have had a lot of missteps this year, sure, but I fully expect them to take advantage of this no-brainer game plan for a statement win on the road. 

RAMS @ LIONS

The Rams are arguably the best team in the league, while the Lions have been in a complete downward spiral for over a month. If LA lost this game, I would be completely and utterly stunned. It would legitimately be one of the biggest upsets, if not THE biggest upset of the year.

CHIEFS @ RAIDERS

I retract my previous statement, the Raiders beating KC would be the biggest upset of the year. With or without Kareem Hunt, I don't think the Chiefs offense will skip a beat. Spenser Ware is a very capable running back, and Pat Mahomes has played at an MVP level all year long. Ultimately I don't think the Raiders will be able to keep up.

JETS @ TITANS

In a battle of extremely inconsistent football teams, ultimately I expect the Titans to come out on top. Tennessee is probably a better team than their record indicates, but they are very rarely just average - either it's a dominating victory over an elite team like New England, or it's getting blown out two weeks in a row by the Colts and Texans. There is no in between with this roster, and there is no average. This week I fully expect the good version of the Titans to show up, but you never know when the terrible version will step on the field instead. I guess we'll find out on Sunday. 

VIKINGS @ PATRIOTS

I can't wait to watch this game. It's a battle between extremely flexible and tricky schemes with the New England offense and the Minnesota defense, which might warrant a Film Room episode all by itself to be honest. In the end though, I do think that the Patriots will have some aces up their sleeves to take advantage of those match-zone concepts that Mike Zimmer loves to employ, just like the Rams used earlier in the season. Don't be surprised if they throw a million balls to James White and Julian Edelman in this game - those are probably their best matchups assuming that Harrison Smith sticks to Rob Gronkowski all day long. 

49ERS @ SEAHAWKS

The Hawks are back. Their tried and true formula of a dominating run game, play action bombs over the top, and a swarming zone defense has returned, and my goodness do they look similar to those 2012 and 2013 teams. The names may be different, and the numbers *slightly* less legendary, but I'll be damned if this team doesn't looked locked and loaded to ruin someone's day as a wildcard team in the playoffs. I think they'll really put it on the Niners this weekend as they continue to build momentum for an improbable January run at the conference's top contenders - LA, New Orleans, and Chicago should beware what's about to come for them.

CHARGERS @ STEELERS

The Melvin Gordon injury is going to affect the Chargers offense more than people expect, in my opinion. Philip Rivers is having a phenomenal year, yes, but I really do think that Gordon has been the key to their red zone offense and overall chain-moving efficiency this year. Without him banging out tough yards between the tackles and keeping this team on schedule, I worry a lot about their ability to slow this game down enough to keep pace with a loaded Steelers offense. I think Ben, Brown, and JuJu are going to build an early lead, force the Chargers to become one-dimensional without a steady run game, and then James Connor is going to close this thing out in the fourth quarter. Just a hunch. 

REDSKINS @ EAGLES

I do think that the Eagles will win this game because Carson Wentz is FINALLY starting to look a little bit like himself (not quite what he was early in 2017, but he's getting closer), and when Wentz is on this is an entirely different team. But that being said I don't think that the Eagles will win the NFC East in the end. They have to make up two games of ground within five weeks despite having an absolutely brutal strength of schedule to close the season, and I just don't think that there is enough time left in the year for them to close that gap. Is it possible? Yes, of course. But is it LIKELY? Ehhh...I personally do not think so.

It's kind of disappointing to me because I feel like both Philly and Washington were more victims of circumstance (injuries) than any other issue of their own doing, but oh well. That's the luck (or bad luck) of the draw sometimes in the NFL. You've got healthy years, and unhealthy years, and both teams have just had simply terrible years in terms of injuries. It sucks, but it happens.