Week 12 NFL Picks

PICKS RECORD SO FAR: 95-55

GIANTS @ EAGLES

The Eagles secondary is so devastated by injuries that they even had freakin’ Braxton Miller suiting up at cornerback this week in practice. I don’t think they have any realistic shot of matching up against this very formidable stable of weapons for the Giants, and if you throw in Eli Manning also playing a lot better as of late, I think Big Blue has a great chance to pull off the “upset”. Like so many other times this season, this Philly defense will be their downfall against competent receiving corps.

JAGUARS @ BILLS

The Bills front seven is really, REALLY good – so good that I think they will be able to completely eviscerate this banged up Jaguars offensive line and shut down what little offense Jacksonville has left. Josh Allen has been inconsistent at best this season when he’s started games, of course, but I think in this battle between great front sevens with horrific offenses, I would still lean towards Buffalo at home anyway. I wouldn’t be shocked if this game ended somewhere around 10-7 or 10-6, to be honest. 

SEAHAWKS @ PANTHERS

The Panthers have lost two in a row, but they are typically a much, much stronger team at home and I think systemically they match up really well against the Seahawks. I think their up-tempo, quick passing game can slice and dice their way down the field against Seattle’s base cover three scheme, while the Carolina front seven should be able to at least limit the Hawks’ stellar run game a little bit. I fully expect this game to come down to the wire and probably be decided by three points or less, with the Panthers ultimately coming out on top. Oh, and Christian McCaffrey is probably going to catch a bajillion passes today as well.

RAIDERS @ RAVENS

I honestly still don’t fully know what to expect from the Ravens offense yet, but at the very least Lamar Jackson’s presence has finally allowed the run game to thrive again. He is nowhere near a polished passer of course, but if there were ANY defense in the league for Jackson to get comfortable against and move the ball through the air, it’s probably the Raiders. I think the game plan will be similar to last week overall, with Baltimore leaning heavily on the option run game and Jackson throwing quick, high-percentage throws over the middle when necessary. They probably won’t take many deep shots at this point in Lamar’s development, but honestly…they might not have to. 

49ERS @ BUCCANEERS

Both of these teams are really riding the struggle bus this season for various reasons. The 49ers are on their third quarterback of the season due to injuries, while the Bucs keep flip flopping between their number one and two QBs because neither one of them can play well enough to permanently keep the job. If I had to choose which one of these teams could actually play a complete enough football game to get a win, it would be Tampa Bay simply because of all the receiving firepower they still have at their disposal, but believe me the margin for error is still razor thin. San Francisco has a far superior offensive system, while the Bucs have far superior offensive talent. I guess we’ll find out which one matters more in the end, but for now mark me down for Tampa. 

BROWNS @ BENGALS

The Browns offense has been remarkably more efficient since Hue Jackson and Todd Haley were fired. One could say that Baker Mayfield and company have looked…dare I say…good? Is having a stable and reliable offense even ALLOWED in Cleveland? I guess it is now, at least. The Bengals, meanwhile, have turned into a complete mess due to key injuries to star players and Marvin Lewis continuing to be Marvin Lewis. Obviously the playoff ship has already sailed for the Browns this season, but people forget that this is a really, really talented team that just needed some good coaching to unlock all of their potential. Maybe they finally have that now…just in time to beat the crap out of a division rival. 

PATRIOTS @ JETS

The Patriots after Thanksgiving are traditionally a cold weather juggernaut that few teams in NFL history have ever been able to stop. Even though I do really like a lot of the Jets’ young talent and I think they are moving in the right direction as a franchise, this is probably not a game that they have a realistic chance of winning, and that goes double considering that New England is coming off an embarrassing road loss to the Titans AND they have had a bye week to prepare for this game. All of those things spell big trouble for Gang Green. 

CARDINALS @ CHARGERS

The Chargers run the ball extremely well, while the Cardinals really struggle to handle physical run games between the tackles. I know we all like to praise Philip Rivers for his play this season – and he of course deserves all of that praise – but the Chargers probably won’t need him much in this game after Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler rip off over 200 combined rushing yards and three combined touchdowns (yeah, I said it). If you have Gordon on your fantasy team, I hope you enjoy the monstrous amount of points he scores for you this Sunday – he’s in line for a big, big week. 

STEELERS @ BRONCOS

This matchup might as well just be the words “TRAP GAME” flashing on a neon sign. The Steelers are potentially going to be relying on a third string right tackle to protect Big Ben against the best edge rushing duo in the league (Miller and Chubb)…in Denver (which is an extremely hard road trip for any team)…where Roethlisberger is 2-3 over the course of his career. The Broncos are much, much better than their 4-6 record indicates, and honestly if I were a Steelers fan I would be extremely worried about this game. Denver is a big play machine both on offense and defense (even if those big plays don’t always go their way), and they are even MORE dangerous within the confines of Mile High when the temperatures start dropping. No visiting team should feel comfortable there, especially when that visiting team has a history of playing terribly in games that they are favored in – I’m looking at you, Mike Tomlin.

DOLPHINS @ COLTS

Another sneaky trap game to keep an eye on. Ryan Kelly is a huge part of the Colts offensive success and he will be out with a knee injury, while the Dolphins are now healthier than they have been since the very beginning of the season. Miami is also coming off a bye week, and at least so far under Adam Gase the Dolphins have played very well coming off an extra week of preparation (2-0). Miami is also a somewhat dangerous schematic matchup for this Colts defense considering that Indy tends to invite quick passing games and power run schemes to carve them up at every possible opportunity, and in fact I would not be shocked to see Ryan Tannehill keep up score for score with Andrew Luck because of that vulnerability. In the end I still do expect Indianapolis to pull this win out by the skin of their teeth, but it will – at least in my opinion – be a lot closer of a game than the current spread indicates (Colts as 8-point favorites).

PACKERS @ VIKINGS

The Packers are unfortunately banged up at the worst possible time – a Sunday Night divisional showdown on the road against a Vikings roster that is talented, desperate, and really pissed off. I know that this scenario would normally be described as the perfect script for an Aaron Rodgers miracle upset, but I am just not seeing that in the cards right now. Rodgers has not been playing like himself for most of this season, Mike McCarthy’s decision making and game management has been worse than ever, and Green Bay’s defense, while not disastrous anymore, is still extremely inconsistent from week to week. You never really know what you’re going to get from the Packers, which makes them very hard to rely on for guys like me who have to just trust the pick and hope that Rodgers will cover up for the rest of the team’s faults. So to be honest, I’m done doing those “blind faith picks” for Green Bay this year against equal or better teams – Rodgers is still one of my favorite QBs ever, but I’m no longer going to ignore the systemic rot at the core of the organization just because of one amazing quarterback. I can’t look past it anymore – Vikings win 30-20. 

TITANS @ TEXANS

Houston has an emotional game ahead of them on Monday Night, and I think the extra day of rest has really benefited them in terms of healing up from injuries. Aaron Colvin and Zach Cunningham are likely both playing, which means the Texans defense will be healthier than they have been in almost two months, and there is still a chance that both of their starting guards could get back on the field as well. 

Even if Zach Fulton and Senio Kelemete can’t go, however, their backups (Greg Mancz and Martinas Rankin) filled in well last week against Washington, so there might not be as big of a drop off in pass protection as people think. The Titans front seven is still very formidable so it’s not like I’m expecting Deshaun Watson to remain clean all night long (nobody realistically would expect that after all), but I still think that the Texans offense should be able to put up a decent showing under the lights. This game smells like a 23-20 squeaker in favor of Houston, probably with a game winning field goal (or game-losing missed field goal) in the last minute of the game. Now that I think about it actually…that sequence of events basically describes most of the Texans’ wins this year…hmmmmmm.