Week 11 NFL Picks

PICKS RECORD SO FAR: 86-49

TITANS @ COLTS

The Colts are rolling right now behind an ass-kickingly good young offensive line, and a quarterback who not only looks just as dominant as he was years ago before his injury, but possibly even BETTER. Indy’s defense is a below average unit so you can probably expect Marcus Mariota and the Titans to put up a good chunk of points today as well, but if this game really is going to come down to which quarterback you trust the most to convert third downs, keep drives going, and turn red zone trips into touchdowns, give me Andrew Luck all day long.

BUCCANEERS @ GIANTS

Only the Bucs could manage to put up 500 yards of offense and still score just three points. Tampa just cannot seem to get out of their own way, even against severely depleted and banged up teams – and now the Bucs themselves have a few key injuries they are going to have to try to overcome this week. Lavonte David, Justin Evans, and Vinny Curry are all out, which is probably only going to make a bad defense even worse. The Giants are not exactly a beacon of good football these days either, but if they can at least continue to look somewhat competent – just as they did last week against the Niners – then I think they have a good shot to win this matchup at home. Either way…this is probably going to be a pretty ugly game to watch.

STEELERS @ JAGUARS

The Steelers might be one of the top five teams in the league right now, while the Jaguars might be one of the bottom five. It’s a far cry from where these two ball clubs were at this time last year, when the Jags beat up Pittsburgh TWICE in one season to ultimately advance to the AFC Championship game. Jacksonville is banged up, their locker room can’t stop fighting, and their quarterback is nowhere near good enough to carry the offense by himself to right the ship. This whole season has been just about the worst-case scenario for a roster that came into this year looking to finally prove themselves, and now they have to play host to a hot team that wants nothing more than to pay them back for their own 2017 heartbreakers. 

Tomlin and Big Ben ain’t gonna go easy on them. I expect this one to get rough for Jacksonville…and probably pretty quickly to boot. 

PANTHERS @ LIONS

The Lions are in a mid-season tail spin after a fairly optimistic 3-3 start that featured some huge wins, and the Panthers are looking to capitalize on that after their 10-day mini-bye week to get ready for this matchup. Even though the numbers might not show it fully, Cam Newton is having the best season he’s had since his MVP year, and Christian McCaffrey has emerged as the “headliner” kind of weapon that Cam has craved to work with since Steve Smith left Carolina.  With Marvis Jones out, Golden Tate in Philly, and the Detroit offensive line taking a massive step back over the course of the last month, I very much doubt the Lions’ ability to keep up with Newton and McCaffrey for four straight quarters. Panthers win by at least a touchdown. 

COWBOYS @ FALCONS

The Cowboys are still one of the most confusing teams in the league, and the Falcons aren’t much easier to predict. What we DO know this year, at least, is that Atlanta is a much, MUCH better offense at home than on the road (32.2 points per game average at home), and that the Cowboys only average 16.2 points per game on the road. Yes, you read that right – the Falcons are averaging literally DOUBLE the amount of points per game that Dallas scores on the road, and for good reason. Their receiving corps is as deep as ever, Tevin Coleman and Ito Smith are both big plays waiting to happen, and Matt Ryan is having one of the better seasons of his career. Were it not for the Falcons having half their defense go down due to injuries, they would probably have a much better record.

Is it possible that the Dallas defense slows down the Falcons enough that Ezekiel Elliott can still get a healthy enough load of rushing attempts to carry Dallas to victory? Sure. Do I expect that to actually happen though?...not so much.

BENGALS @ RAVENS

The Bengals are a mess both offensively and defensively right now, while the Ravens are expected to not just use one backup quarterback, but TWO backup quarterbacks in this matchup. That’s right, this is going to be one of THOSE games…the kind of game that looks absolutely horrendous on paper but still somehow manages to turn into one of the most entertaining games of the year. That always seems to happen when the Bengals and Ravens play each other, now that I think about it. As for who I think will win the game? Honestly, flip a coin. There are so many major, unpredictable factors in this game (cough cough Lamar Jackson cough cough) that you really can’t make any sort of informed guess on where both of these teams stand right now. All I can do is just bank on the Ravens defense to tee off on Andy Dalton and hope that RG3 and Jackson can keep the offense alive with their mobility. That is probably Baltimore’s best and most reliable recipe for a much-needed home victory.

TEXANS @ REDSKINS

The Redskins are extremely banged up, especially on the offensive line, which is going to make it much, much harder for Alex Smith to try to keep pace with Deshaun Watson, DeAndre Hopkins, and the rest of the suddenly-very-productive Texans offense. Washington’s best chance to win this game is if their front seven absolutely DESTROYS Houston’s offensive line and takes the game over, but that’s easier said than done against an ultra-mobile quarterback like Watson who can turn sure sacks into first downs with his legs. I will give the Redskins credit – they are a really good team that are unfortunate victims of circumstance this season (that circumstance being injuries) and I do expect this game to very, very close – but it’s just tough for me to pick against a hot hand right now. Houston is healthier, they are more explosive, and they are coming off an entire bye week to prepare for this game. That’s a tall order for Washington to fill. Texans win by 3. 

RAIDERS @ CARDINALS

The Raiders, at least in my opinion, are the worst team in the league this year. The Cardinals may not be even average themselves, but at least Byron Leftwich has done an admiral job to help revive their offense and get Josh Rosen’s career off on the right foot. Arizona might not be the most talented club in the league, but unlike Oakland they DO at least have some bankable superstar talent to lean on, which is exactly what I expect them to do in this game. David Johnson is going to get 25 touches, and Larry Fitzgerald will get at least 8 catches. As long as Rosen and Leftwich feed their stars, I don’t think the Raiders will be able to keep pace. Arizona has a chance to win this game by at least a touchdown (as long as they feed Johnson, of course).

BRONCOS @ CHARGERS

This Chargers offense is extremely fun to watch, and I think they are a really tough matchup for the Broncos to deal with. Rivers is getting the ball out quickly, Melvin Gordon is one of the most productive backs in the league, and the Chargers offensive line has held up really well all season long. All three of those factors mean that Denver’s bread and butter on defense – Von Miller and Bradley Chubb – will have a much harder time trying to take this game over. And as long as you can prevent that duo from ruining your game plan, I don’t think the Broncos have many other cards to play. They really rely on that pass rush to generate their big plays on defense (and by extension, improve field position for Case Keenum on offense). If those two are turned into non-factors on third downs, look out…we could have a blowout on our hands. 

EAGLES @ SAINTS

The Saints are the best team in the league right now. Their offense isn’t just efficient at home, it’s absolutely BRUTAL to contend against. Meanwhile the Eagles only have one healthy member of their opening day secondary left on the field, and their offense has really struggled to get going this year without any semblance of a stable running game. Carson Wentz is going to have to play out of his damn mind if the Eagles are going to have any chance to win this game, because just comparing the overall rosters against one another…it really isn’t even close right now. 

VIKINGS @ BEARS

The Bears are riding a hot streak and they have a chance to really take control of their division tonight. Their defense is playing extremely well, and ultimately I think that Khalil Mack, Kyle Fuller, and Eddie Jackson will be Chicago’s reasons for winning this game, NOT Mitchell Trubisky, Tarik Cohen, or Allen Robinson. I expect a rather low-scoring Sunday Night Football affair, with Mack in particular keeping the Bears in the game with two sacks and likely another forced fumble in Vikings territory. After three quarters of back and forth defensive action, Trubisky will finally put together one solid drive in the fourth to pull ahead, and from there the Bears pass rush will close it out. That’s how I envision this game going in my head, at least.

CHIEFS @ RAMS

This is it. The game of the year. Chiefs vs Rams. Historic offense vs historic offense. I don’t know about y’all, but I’m betting the over in this one, which is sitting at a very juicy 63.5. You can make a very solid argument for either one of these teams to win, but when I look at this game it really comes down to which group of five stars you favor the most – McVay, Goff, Gurley, Woods, and Cooks, or Reid, Mahomes, Hunt, Hill, and Kelce. For me at least, I happen to like that Chiefs group of five the most.
 

Mahomes has been spectacular this year, Hill is still the most dangerous man in football, and both Kelce and Hunt are nightmares to defend on third downs. The Rams are a fantastic team and will likely end up with a bye week in the playoffs, but I think the Chiefs are just a TINY bit more explosive overall, and in the end I think that will be the difference. This game is going to come down to who has the ball last, and in that scenario I’ll side with this KC offense every single time.