Week 9 NFL Picks

2018 PICKS RECORD SO FAR: 69-38

My bounce back in the picks record continued last weekend when I went 12-2, only dropping the Seattle-Detroit and Arizona-San Francisco games (those pesky Seahawks got me again). 

I feel great about my week nine picks as well, though I admit that my choices are much riskier overall because I went HEAVY on the road teams this week. Hopefully the Football Gods are kind to me and show some mercy. Remember that these picks are NOT against the spread, but if you are interested in some picks against the spread for betting purposes this weekend, check out those on the channel!
 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RZ2ctDAhLQE
 

And with that, here are this week’s picks: 

FALCONS @ REDSKINS

This is a very intriguing matchup between a great Falcons offense and a great Redskins defense, but unfortunately for Washington it’s the other matchup, the Redskins offense vs the Falcons defense, that will likely decide the game. The Skins offense is fairly banged up at the moment and will be down three key pieces in Trent Williams, Chris Thompson, and Jamison Crowder, which is going to seriously hamper their ability to go blow for blow with Matt Ryan and company.
 

I still think that Washington has a decent shot at winning this game just with their defense alone, but to me, the more likely outcome is that the Falcons get just enough production through the air to squeak out a three or four point win on the road.

LIONS @ VIKINGS

The Vikings really can’t catch a break this year when it comes to health. It seems like damn near half the starting lineup is banged up to varying degrees right now, with key players like Stefon Diggs, Tom Compton, and Anthony Barr all unlikely to play today, and many more playing through nagging injuries. Meanwhile, the Lions are starting to get more of their players back from injuries of their own, with Ziggy Ansah, Theo Riddick, and Darius Slay all likely to suit up.
 

Schematically and personnel wise, I think Detroit is actually a fairly tough matchup for the Vikings, and I would not be surprised to see them really maximize the mismatches they’ll get over the middle with Riddick and outside with Golladay. And with Diggs out, I could see Slay keying in on Laquon Treadwell on an island while Adam Thielen is double covered all game long. If both teams were fully healthy I could see this being a really fascinating, back and forth slug fest, but the fact is that both teams are NOT equally healthy at the moment. Give me the Lions to pull off the road upset.

 

STEELERS @ RAVENS

Am I really going to pick three road teams in a row?....yes, yes I am. These two ball clubs are in entirely different places since they last met a month ago. The Steelers offense is rolling behind James Connor’s punishing runs and Antonio Browns’ ever-present dominance on the perimeter, and their defense has been surprisingly above average as well (not dominant, mind you, but still above average). 

In particular, the Steelers run defense has been excellent this year, which spells trouble for a Ravens offense that has struggled to run the ball very well this season in the first place. Considering that Baltimore’s two starting offensive tackles are out for this game, I fear that they are going to struggle generating a ground game once again, and then leave Joe Flacco twisting in the wind in long yardage situations with two backup tackles protecting him.
 

This is all one big recipe for a Steelers win in my eyes….and a fairly convincing win at that.

CHIEFS @ BROWNS

The Browns have talent, but honestly with all of the dysfunction and confusion among their coaching staff this season, it makes a lot of sense why they have seriously underachieved throughout the last three years. Hue Jackson was just…well…he was Hue Jackson. I should have known how doomed this team would be from the start – shame on me for falling for it yet again.
 

This team SHOULD be winning more games, but at this point I just don’t think it’s going to happen until they bring in a fresh face next season (paging Lincoln Riley). I love Baker Mayfield – I really, really do – but I just can’t seem him pulling off a miracle to win this game unless the Chiefs completely crap the bed, or unless Greg Williams is secretly an incredible head coach.
 

Neither of those things are likely to be true…so I’ll go with Pat Mahomes and his band of merry men on this one.

JETS @ DOLPHINS

I think my pick for this game largely depends on if the Jets receiving corps is healthy or not. Both Robby Anderson and Quincy Enunwa are game time decisions today, and both of them are incredibly important to the Jets offense considering how inconsistent their run game is. If they play, then I think Sam Darnold should be able to lead a balanced Jet attack against a reeling Dolphins defense and control this game from start to finish. If they don’t play, however, then things become a bit more dicey. The Jets running game has been very streaky this season, and can honestly only be matched by Miami’s equally streaky defense. At that point, if there’s no Jet passing game to break this thing open, all of their inconsistencies cancel out and this game will turn into an infuriatingly unpredictable mess….and I hate picking those kinds of games.
 

Gun to my head – not knowing if Anderson and Enunwa will play or not – I’ll still probably lean with the Jets anyway just because I have more faith in Sam Darnold than I do in Brock Osweiler, but I would feel a hell of a lot better about this pick if I knew the health status of Darnold’s top two receivers.

BEARS @ BILLS

Khalil Mack or no Khalil Mack, I still have a lot of faith in the Bears to win this game. Their offense is slowly rounding into form now that Tarik Cohen has been more involved, and the defense – while banged up – should still be fine against an interception machine like Nathan Peterman. The real wildcard here is the Bills defense, which has a habit of REALLY dragging teams down into the mud and making them fight for every yard - and believe me they probably WILL cause a lot of problems for Mitch Trubisky today.

 

And honestly, if the Bills defense does somehow manage to keep this game close enough for Peterman to maybe have a shot to pull off an upset, it wouldn’t exactly be the most shocking thing in the world. After all, this IS the same Bears team that has already inexplicably lost games to Brock Osweiler and a doped-up, one-legged Aaron Rodgers that was spotted a three-touchdown handicap and only one half of a game to make up for it.
 

If ANYONE could find a way to lose to Peterman…it would be the Bears. Don’t screw this up, Chicago. 

BUCCANEERS @ PANTHERS

The Panthers are rolling, and they are a very, very tough team to beat at home. I know we all like the idea of Fitzmagic taking over the season once again, but I’ve watched enough Ryan Fitzpatrick games over the years to know that eventually, one way or another, this sand castle is going collapse. You never know exactly when that collapse is coming…but you always know that it IS coming.
 

For my money, I’m betting that his collapse will happen sooner rather than later – and Carolina does tend to bring out the worst in opposing teams, after all. This just smells like a two-interception game to me while Fitzpatrick tries to unleash his inner Brett Favre, and those turnovers will likely ultimately be the difference in the game. Give me Panthers to win by seven. 

CHARGERS @ SEAHAWKS

Chris Carson is a wee bit banged up, yes, but I still have a lot of confidence in the Seahawks to run the ball on LA regardless of who they have out there toting the rock – that’s how good their offensive line has been recently. We are fast approaching “it doesn’t matter who is running it as long as the line is healthy” territory with the Seahawks, which is a statement that I never even imagined making after watching Seattle struggle up front for all those years. And as long as the run game is humming and Russell Wilson is allowed to keep defenses honest with the play action passing game, these Seahawks are extremely dangerous…and perhaps reminiscent of their Super Bowl-caliber teams of old. 

On the flip side – I do acknowledge that I really, really like the Chargers this year and I think that they are an excellent team when healthy…but I just can’t get past the Seattle buzzsaw effect kicking in when the air starts to cool down and the 12’s get amped up. This team has been damn near invincible at home in the second half of the season over the last six years, and unfortunately for the Chargers I expect them to fall victim to those “late season” Seahawks this weekend.

TEXANS @ BRONCOS

The Will Fuller injury is a massive one and definitely will affect the Texans in the long run, but ultimately I am still going with Houston this week simply because of the Deshaun Watson factor. His line has played better during the last two games (especially against Miami), and when a quarterback like Watson has even a LITTLE bit of time to function in the pocket, this offense is damn near unstoppable.

The big wildcard here is obviously the duo of Von Miller and Bradley Chubb. They are absolutely capable of pushing that Texans line BACK into the gorge they climbed out of and sending Houston into another downward spiral…but I still like Watson’s chances to pull this thing out anyway. And if you are telling me that if Watson is well-protected, the only thing keeping the Broncos’ hope alive is Case Keenum somehow out-dueling him?

Yeah, I wouldn’t feel confident in that either. Houston wins by six, me thinks.
 

RAMS @ SAINTS

Man, the schedule Gods must HATE the Saints, because it seems like every single week they are facing extremely dangerous teams that can chew you up and spit you out before you even know what happened. And so far, the Rams have certainly chewed up every team they’ve faced this season.
 

Today, however, I think the Saints hand LA their first painful taste of defeat. Between the Saints regularly turning into an unstoppable juggernaut in front of their home crowd, to the fact that New Orleans’ elite run defense is poised to be a major problem for the engine of the Rams offense – Todd Gurley – I just have an intense gut feeling that the Saints are going to control this game from the start. They are a very, VERY tough schematic matchup for LA to handle as it is, but if you also factor in that this game is in that ultra-intimidating dome atmosphere, it’s hard for me to imagine that the Rams pull this one off.
 

I love Jared Goff, and I love Sean McVay, but they are basically running into older, wiser, and craftier versions of themselves this Sunday, and as my father always said, “age and experience triumphs over youth and exuberance every time.” 

PACKERS @ PATRIOTS

This might be the last time we ever get to see Brady take on Rodgers, barring another meeting in a Super Bowl. Soak it in while you can, lads.
 

To me, this game just screams “Belichick”. He is a master of taking away what you do best, which in Green Bay’s case is getting Aaron Rodgers out of the pocket to make laser-accurate throws deep downfield to the back shoulders of his receivers. I think we see a lot of “contain” pressures from the Patriots front to keep Rodgers in place, and I think we see a lot of press-trail technique from the cornerbacks to take away those back shoulder balls. That means Green Bay is going to have to lean even harder on their run game to try to keep things moving, which is actually fairly doable against this Patriots front.
 

If Jones gets over 20 touches, I think Green Bay wins this game. If he doesn’t, then the Pats win. Belichick will execute his game plan just to force you to adjust your own…it will be on Mike McCarthy to actually pull the trigger and make those adjustments in the first place.