Week 8 NFL Game Picks

2018 PICKS RECORD SO FAR: 58-35

Last week was a pretty good bounce back from that brutal slate in week six. I went 11-3 overall in week seven, only missing on the Browns-Bucs, Texans-Jags, and Panthers-Eagles games. Considering I am a Texans fan after all, I’m not too upset about that result I guess.
 

I’m feeling pretty good about my chances in week eight as well, so hopefully the Football Gods are kind to me. Remember that these picks are NOT against the spread, but if you are interested in some picks against the spread for betting purposes this weekend, check out those on the channel! 

https://youtu.be/OyXE0_l8ZFM
 

And with that, here are this week’s picks:

EAGLES @ JAGUARS

The Jaguars are in complete free fall. Less than two months ago they were looking like one of the top teams in the NFL after a win over the Patriots, and now I genuinely wonder if they are going to win another game this season. Between injuries, terrible quarterback play, communications breakdowns on defense, and half their secondary getting arrested last night in a big pub brawl, I really don’t think Jacksonville has a shot here. The Eagles are not the dominant team that they were a year ago (yet), but they are more than talented enough (and certainly well-coached enough) to have this one wrapped up relatively early.

RAVENS @ PANTHERS

The Ravens are a really damn good team, but this is a tough matchup for them. The Panthers have a nasty front seven that can cause a lot of problems for the Baltimore run game, which means it’s going to be all on Joe Flacco to move the ball by himself – that’s a proposition that I’m always a bit nervous about. On the flip side I think that Carolina actually has a few really good matchups that are in their favor on offense, and at least on paper this looks like a “Christian McCaffrey catches a million passes” kind of game. Throw in the fact that the Panthers passing game does a great job at neutralizing blitzes when they go into their up-tempo spread looks, and that’s another check in Cam Newton’s favor when facing that blitz-heavy Ravens defense. This game will be close, but give me Carolina in an upset.

BRONCOS @ CHIEFS

The Chiefs offense is pretty much unstoppable right now. They can turn any game they play into a shootout by attacking defenses in a wide variety of ways (zone runs, trap runs, vertical passing game, screen passing game, option and package plays, etc) and at this point I’m not sure that there is any secondary in the league that can keep them under 30 points in Arrowhead. So I guess the real question is this – if and when KC inevitably turns this game into a shootout, do you have any confidence whatsoever that Case Keenum can keep up with Pat Mahomes? Yeah, me neither… 

BROWNS @ STEELERS

The Browns have played Pittsburgh incredibly tough in each of their last four meetings, but just can’t seem to get over the hump and get a win. So do I think that this week is finally the week they pull it off? Well…no. I still don’t quite have enough faith in the Cleveland offense to outscore Brown, Bell, JuJu, and Connor, but I think that their defense is going to put up one hell of an effort to give Mayfield a proper chance to prove me wrong. This game just smells like a tough, gritty, 20-17 kind of brawl with big defensive and special teams plays on both sides. Cleveland will probably still lose in the end, but man I can’t help but feel that this will be yet another close fight…and certainly TOO close for Steelers fans’ comfort.

SEAHAWKS @ LIONS

The Lions are looking like an extremely dangerous team right now. The offense is firing on all cylinders with a balanced ground attack and a brutally efficient passing game, and their defense just got a monstrous upgrade with the trade for Damon Harrison. As of the time of me writing this we still aren’t sure if Harrison is going to play this weekend, but even if he sits this game out I still think that the Lions are good enough to win just with their potent offense alone. Seattle has a huge task ahead of them trying to contain Kerryon Johnson, Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones, AND Golden Tate all at the same time (hell if the Kansas City triplets didn’t exist, you could argue that nobody else in the league could top Detroit’s arsenal of weapons), and I just don’t think that the Seahawks have the talent necessary to matchup with this kind of group anymore. Russell Wilson will still get his – he LIVES for these “underdog shoot out” kinds of games – but in the end I just don’t think they have enough to keep up for four straight quarters. Detroit 35 – Seattle 27.

BUCCANEERS @ BENGALS

I don’t hold last week’s loss to KC against the Bengals – very few teams can go into Arrowhead right now and compete without getting immediately destroyed. Cincy might not be the best club in the AFC, but they certainly aren’t bad either – and I think a bounce back win over a very inconsistent Bucs squad will show that. Joe Mixon is going to eat against a very depleted Tampa Bay defensive line, and I think the Bengals secondary picks off Jameis Winston no fewer than two times (my gut says Jessie Bates grabs one of them on a seam ball from a cover three look). Turnovers + a successful Bengals run game + Tampa having exactly ZERO corners that can cover A.J. Green = a comfortable and much-needed win for Cincinnati. 

JETS @ BEARS

Chicago is a bit banged up right now, but believe it or not the Jets have been bitten even HARDER by the injury bug. Quincy Enunwa is out, Robby Anderson is doubtful, Bilal Powell is done for the year, Spencer Long’s knee and hand might keep him out this week, and the only defensive backs who are even close to feeling 100 percent are Buster Skrine and Jamal Adams. Injuries are EVERYWHERE on this Jets roster, and unfortunately I just don’t think that Sam Darnold is going to be able to single-handedly will them to this kind of improbable win on the road against a pissed off Bears team…at least not at this early stage in his career. This matchup probably could have been really damn good if both teams were fully healthy, but instead we’ll probably get a sloppy, rainy, what-the-hell-is-going-on kind of game. Buckle up, I guess.

REDSKINS @ GIANTS

There are no great teams in the NFC East, but there sure as hell is at least one depressingly awful team. All four rosters have some pretty sizable holes, but none more so than the Giants holes all along the offensive line. They can’t block ANYONE, and they sure as hell won’t be able to block the Redskins’ great defensive line rotation either. I know that Washington has basically nobody on the back end that can realistically cover all of Eli Manning’s weapons in man coverage, but if Eli doesn’t have time to find those weapons in the first place, does it even matter? I expect Adrian Peterson to pound the rock, Alex Smith to throw only 16 or 17 passes, and the defense to play soft zone while the pass rush absolutely tees off on Manning as soon as they get a lead. It’s a tried and true recipe for an efficient and suffocating win, sure, but the Redskins have been great at suffocating teams this year. It’s kind of their thing, really.

COLTS @ RAIDERS

Speaking of depressing football teams…the Raiders are unfortunately going nowhere this season. They can’t stop anyone on defense, they can’t get out of their own way in the red zone with crucial penalties and mental errors, and other than accumulating tons of future first round picks we really have no idea what the actual “plan” is here. 2018 is just…well…it’s just not going to be their year. Maybe by the time this team moves to Vegas and they start (hopefully) hitting on all of those first round picks they can put a real contending squad together, but for now Sundays are going to be really rough to watch for fans of this team. Meanwhile for the Colts, this is a huge potential win for them in a still very-winnable AFC South. Andrew Luck looks fantastic in his comeback season, and as the pieces around Luck continue to get healthier and gel as a unit, the arrow for this team is pointing firmly up. To be honest, if anything you can look at this game as the ultimate contrast between a roster with tons of questions about the future, and a roster with tons of answers.

49ERS @ CARDINALS

The Cardinals are right up there with the Giants, Raiders, and Bills when it comes to really bad football teams in 2018, but at least you can see that Arizona has a young core that they are trying to build around. They aren’t remotely close to finishing this rebuild, sure, but hell at least they’ve got a clear vision for what they are trying to accomplish with Josh Rosen. And even better, they recognized that there was a problem that threatened to derail that vision before it could even get started (cough cough Mike McCoy), and they got rid of that problem as soon as possible before he could do any more damage. Cards fans may be having a hard time this season, but at least they should be able to respect that Arizona’s leadership is *trying* to build a better future. The next step in the process is beefing up protection and weapons for their young quarterback in next year’s free agency period, and then filling in whatever gaps that can with draft picks. It will take time, but it will be worth it.
 

As for the 49ers, this was the year that everyone expected their own bold rebuild to finally take off…but injuries kind of ruined that dream before it could take shape. This is still a team with plenty of talent that can and WILL fight to the bitter end no matter who they play against, but it’s unfortunate that we likely won’t get to see San Francisco play up to their TRUE potential until 2019 at the earliest. At least Niners fans will at least get to see DeForest Buckner beat up on the Cardinals offensive line this weekend…that’s got to count for something, right?

PACKERS @ RAMS

As long as the Packers have Aaron Rodgers they have a shot to win every single game, but the Rams look downright unstoppable right now. They can win in such an insane variety of ways that I’m not sure if they have any true, exploitable weaknesses when it comes to game planning. If you want to get into a shootout, Jared Goff has the pinpoint accuracy and the weapons to go blow for blow with the best QBs in the game. If you want get into a defensive slugfest, Aaron Donald, Ndamukong Suh, Lamarcus Joyner, and John Johnson will happily oblige you. If you want to play eight in the box against Todd Gurley, it becomes the Woods and Cooks show. If you want to play two deep and bracket in the pass game, that basically just hands 100 free yards to Gurley. It doesn’t matter what you do or how you attack them – Sean McVay and Wade Phillips will find a way to adjust and attack you right back.
 

Pretty much the only way you can really hope to beat the Rams is just to consistently be one-step ahead of them in your game plan and change up your play calling tendencies (on both sides of the ball) before McVay and Phillips can catch on and adjust, but I have yet to see any opposing coaching staffs other than Seattle actually do that this season. Most of the Rams’ opponents have had very solid first half plans, only to fall apart midway through the third quarter once LA’s coaching staff figured them out and hit the gas pedal. Make no mistake about it, McVay WILL figure out whatever the Packers defense is doing to try to contain his offense…but it’s on Mike Pettine to be one step ahead of that and change those fronts and coverages before McVay can make that adjustment. If Pettine doesn’t throw those change ups…well…it will be a long day for Green Bay. Trust me on that.

SAINTS @ VIKINGS

This is such a juicy game to bet on New Orleans just because of all the extra narratives surrounding it, but when it comes to the purely on-the-field matchups I lean pretty confidently towards the Saints anyway. Minnesota is very banged up right now with Anthony Barr, Tom Compton, Dalvin Cook, and Andrew Sendejo all ruled out, and both Riley Reiff and Linval Joseph nowhere near 100 percent, but even if they WERE on the field I still would have a hard time trusting Cook to produce against a really good Saints run defense, and trusting the Vikings defense to hold up against a Drew Brees-led passing attack that is brutally efficient against blitz-heavy defenses like the one that Minnesota deploys.
 

For the record, I still think that Kirk Cousins, Adam Thielen, Stefon Diggs, and Kyle Rudolph are more than potent enough to keep up with Brees if this develops into a full-blown shootout. BUT – and this is a very big “but” – late in the fourth quarter when you only have one or two possessions left and you absolutely MUST keep a drive alive with the run game…do you trust Minnesota to chew that clock and keep the chains moving with their ground game? And if the answer is no, do you trust Kirk to be as perfect as Brees is to keep those drives alive all by his damn self?
 

For me, the answer to that question is ALSO a no. If this game does indeed turn into a shootout like I expect it to, I’m always going to side with one of the greatest quarterbacks in NFL history to get it done. The Vikings are awesome – but it’s just that kind of year for New Orleans. I genuinely hope we get another rematch in January, because this one should be a DOOZY.

PATRIOTS @ BILLS

My mother always told me that if I had nothing nice to say I should just say nothing at all, so in the interest of sparing you all of my rantings and ravings on the state of the Bills, I'll just leave it at this - Pats win...and do so in convincing fashion.