Week 1 NFL Game Picks

Hey everyone!

Part of the deal for being a Patron on this channel is getting all of my weekly game picks the night before the Sunday slate of games, so without further ado let's get right into it and go game by game!

BENGALS @ COLTS

I'm going to go with the Bengals on this one. Andrew Luck's return obviously makes this a much more interesting game, but I think the Cincy offense is ripe for a big comeback this season with their offensive line additions both in the draft and free agency. Cordy Glenn and Billy Price are going to be a big factor in this game, especially when it comes to establishing the run with Joe Mixon, and on the other side the Colts are *already* dealing with some injury issues with Marlon Mack and left tackle Anthony Castonzo. If both teams were perfectly healthy I might be more inclined to lean Indy, but for now I feel more confident in the Bengals to pull this one out.


BILLS @ RAVENS

I'll be blunt - I think the Ravens win this game by at least two touchdowns. The Bills offensive line situation is nightmarish as it is, let alone when they have to deal with the Ravens front seven IN BALTIMORE of all places. Nathan Peterman is going to be running for his damn life tomorrow...that poor, poor kid. Buffalo's defense is very underrated, but I don't think even they have the capability to win this game all by themselves.


BUCCANEERS @ SAINTS

The Saints are at home, in the dome, and they are facing Ryan Fitzpatrick as the Bucs starting quarterback? Yep...sign me up for a NOLA win on this one. Fitzpatrick isn't terrible - in fact I would venture to say he's at least average - but the Saints are notoriously hard to beat in their own house, and I think it's going to take a bit more than 30 lobs to Mike Evans and O.J. Howard to pull off this upset. Even if Jameis were starting, I would still pick New Orleans, to be honest. 

TEXANS @ PATRIOTS

I think Houston gets the road upset here. Hell, they would have pulled it off in Foxborough last year were it not for one terrible play call from Bill O'Brien in the 4th quarter and another miracle comeback from Tom Brady. I think Houston has at long last done away with their New England fear factor, and they've finally seen the beast bleed. They *know* they can beat the Pats, and they *know* they can do it in Foxborough. Throw in the fact that the Texans' secondary has improved, and the Patriots' receiving corps has done the exact opposite since their last meeting, and I think the edge is with Houston on this one. 

49ERS @ VIKINGS

I think this is going to be a really low scoring, down to the wire type of game. The 49ers have a distinct advantage in the trenches against a heavily depleted Vikings offensive line, but on the other side of the ball it's hard to overlook the Vikings' own intimidating front seven as well. Overall, I think both teams are going to have a lot of trouble moving the ball. Dalvin Cook probably won't do much on the ground, but I think his contributions in the air are going to set this team up for some critical (and likely game-winning) field goals. He is probably their best "mismatch" option on the field, after all. The 49ers are going to wish they had Reuben Foster available for this one after it's over. 

TITANS @ DOLPHINS

Another season, another week one opener where the Titans are dealing with a bunch of critical injuries to start the year. Tennessee is without Jack Conklin, Rashaan Evans, AND Harold Landry for this early road test against Miami, which is just an absolute killer against another sneaky-dangerous AFC team. I do expect Derrick Henry to have a monster game against a weak Dolphins run defense, but in the end I don't think it will be enough. Being down a starting right tackle AND a good young situational pass rusher AND a fast, versatile inside linebacker is just a hell of a big obstacle to overcome. The Titans still have a good chance in this one, of course, but I feel more comfortable with Miami for now. 

JAGUARS @ GIANTS

I was all ready to shock the world and take the Giants for the big upset at home in this one....and then Olivier Vernon got hurt and was ruled out. I still think Big Blue has an excellent chance to pull this one off - they certainly have the offensive firepower to do so, as I broke down earlier this summer - but not having Vernon on the field is a big, big deal and ultimately I think that will give Jacksonville the win. Vernon is the Giants' best pass rusher by far, and was a major factor in the "score fast, force Bortles to pass, then go hunting" game plan that I expected New York to employ. They can still score fast, of course, but without any premium pass rushers that can put some pressure on Bortles when he is forced into a shootout, that plan kind of goes out the window. Give me Duval by a field goal.

STEELERS @ BROWNS

Yes, I realize that the Steelers are going through some locker room troubles. Yes, I realize that they are on the road. Yes, I realize that Big Ben is another year older and that the Browns are very talented, but I still just can't bring myself to pick Cleveland...yet. They are certainly capable of winning this home opener and starting their season off on the right foot, but I feel like I've been burned too much by this organization in the past to just blindly trust them again. If the Browns win, that's great, and I'll start considering picking them in close matchups once more, but for now I'll just stick with what I know and give Pittsburgh the win - Le'Veon Bell or no Le'Veon Bell. 

CHIEFS @ CHARGERS

Joey Bosa being ruled out of this game is obviously a massive deal, but overall I still think that the Chargers have the talent to win this game fairly comfortably. The Chiefs defense is putrid, and they have approximately ZERO corners who can even come close to covering Keenan Allen. Pat Mahomes looked much further along than I expected in the preseason, but I am still not all in on his hype train just yet. I want to see how he handles a few more regular season contests before I make a final determination about "what he is". That being said though, I do think that he's going to do wonderful things for all you Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill owners this weekend, so there's that. 

COWBOYS @ PANTHERS

The Cowboys defense is really damn good, and I think the whole country is going to finally see that for themselves this Sunday. I expect Dallas to win the trench battle on both sides of the ball, and while there probably won't be any spectacular numbers from Dak Prescott in this one, I do think it will be just enough to keep the engine running while Ezekiel Elliott does all the heavy lifting. If you have Christian McCaffrey on your fantasy team, I hope it's in a PPR league, because I really don't expect him to get much going on the ground in this one. Dallas by four. 

REDSKINS @ CARDINALS

In a battle between two clubs that I predicted will fall into the "sneaky teams that aren't as bad as their records" category by mid-November, I expect the Cardinals to pull out a home victory by the skin of their teeth. This is actually a surprisingly even contest, with some truly premium matchups on the field to keep an eye on (Chandler Jones vs Trent Williams, Budda Baker vs Jordan Reed, etc). Ultimately I feel that the Cardinals have just a few more "WOW" play makers on their roster that can make a difference (Jones, Patrick Peterson, David Johnson, the list goes on), and those WOW plays will set them up for a narrow victory in the desert. 

SEAHAWKS @ BRONCOS

I like the Broncos at home in this one. Their defense is still as nasty as ever, even without Aqib Talib, and the addition of Bradley Chubb will only make life that much more difficult for Russell Wilson. If Seattle finds itself in any 3rd and long situations, they're toast - or more accurately, their QB is toast. Case Keenum isn't exactly a quarterback I believe in these days, but he's certainly better than what Denver had last year, and for now that is probably enough. Give me the Broncos by a touchdown.

BEARS @ PACKERS

Must....resist....urge....to pick Chicago. I know we're all excited to watch Khalil Mack suit up in a Bears uniform and wreck shop, but just remember that this guy missed the ENTIRE offseason and just barely arrived with his new team a week ago. He is almost certainly not in football shape yet, and he definitely does not know the ins and outs of the system yet either. If this game were being played a month from now, sure, you might convince me to take that bait and pick the Bears for a huge road upset, but for now I'm going to trust the King in the North to keep his throne. 

JETS @ LIONS

Yeah, I'm doing it. I'm picking the Jets. Sam Darnold is the real deal, and I am not encouraged at all by what I've seen from the Lions defense so far in the preseason. Could you make the "it's just preseason!" argument with me? Absolutely, but it's all I've got to go on at this point, so forgive me if I prioritize that tape when picking the winner of this game. I do love the Detroit offense this year, especially when Kerryon Johnson gets involved, but in the end I am way more confident in the Jets defense to not blow a lead than the Lions defense right now, so put me down for Gang Green in this one.

RAMS @ RAIDERS

I don't really have to say much here. The Rams are loaded virtually everywhere on their roster, while the Raiders are...well...not. The Khalil Mack trade still makes zero sense to me, but even if Mack were still in Oakland I would probably go with the Rams here anyway. If LA won by more than 14 points in this one, it would not shock me at all.