Film Room Mock Draft 3.0 (The New Top Five)

Now that the Jets and Bills are starting to make moves to get higher in the first round, we can expect to see a lot of quarterbacks fly off the board in the top 12-15 picks. Here is how I see the first round shaking out as of today.

1. Browns: Sam Darnold, QB, USC

- Darnold is pretty much the consensus number one at this point. I have no reason to believe that Cleveland will take anyone else, and if I were them I would do the same thing.

2. Giants: Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State

- JPP is now in Tampa Bay, but that is still not enough of a reason for me to pass on Saquon Barkley in favor of Bradley Chubb. Barkley has a much, much higher overall grade, and has a higher likelihood to be an elite player.

3. Jets (via Colts): Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma

- I'm a huge fan of Mayfield's game. He might not come from a traditional pro-style offense, but his accuracy, poise, and leadership qualities are undeniable. I think the Jets can tailor an offense to his skillset as a rookie, and then expand from there throughout his career.

4. Browns (via Texans): Bradley Chubb, DE, NC State

- Chubb is not the fourth-highest player on my board, but the thought of pairing him with Myles Garrett and Emmanuel Ogbah is enticing. Throw in Carl Nassib as well, and Cleveland could have one hell of a rotation coming off the edge for the next few years. You can never have enough pass rushers, after all.

5. Broncos: Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming

- The more I think about Josh Rosen's injury history - specifically with his concussions - the more I worry about his durability in the NFL. Josh Allen is not as developed as Rosen, but at least you can feel a bit better about his ability to take a big hit in the pocket. Rosen could still end up being amazing of course, but I just can't shake the thought that he's one split second of bad luck away from disaster. Allen is the safer pick in that regard.

6. Colts (via Jets):  Quenton Nelson, OG, Notre Dame 

- The Colts got a bunch of picks for trading down just three spots, and now they can get an elite player out of that deal as well. Nelson slots in at right guard across from Jack Mewhort, and he can start there for the next 10 years. This Indy interior line is starting to look nasty.

7. Buccaneers: Denzel Ward, CB, Ohio State

- I went back and forth on this pick for a long time between Ward and Minkah Fitzpatrick, but in the end I went with Ward. As great as Fitzpatrick could be on this team in a hybrid nickel role, Ward fills a more pressing need as Tampa's CB of the future across from Vernon Hargreaves. Brent Grimes can't play forever, so they need to plan for his retirement sooner rather than later. Justin Evans showed flashes as a rookie at free safety as well, so it's not like their cupboard is bare at that position.

8. Bears:  Tremaine Edmunds, LB, Virginia Tech

- Chicago's defense is already nasty, but can you imagine how good they can be if Edmunds reaches his full potential? He can be an all-time great Mike linebacker, and there are few coaches I would trust more to get him there than Vic Fangio. This is a perfect situation for his development.

9. 49ers:  Courtland Sutton, WR, SMU

- The 49ers struck out on the Allen Robinson sweepstakes, so they still need a big-bodied X receiver to grow up with Jimmy G. Pierre Garcon will be aging out of the league within the next few years, so they really, really need to groom a guy like Sutton for that role. It's a bit of a reach in terms of overall grade, but the need and scheme fit is there.

10. Raiders: Minkah Fitzpatrick, S, Alabama

- Minkah Fitzpatrick is a Jon Gruden kind of player. He's tough, he's smart, and he has a no-nonsense approach to preparation that meshes well with his new head coach. It also doesn't hurt that he can slide into the starting free safety position from day one and instantly provide some juice to this defense. Between Fitzpatrick, Karl Joseph, Gareon Conley, and Obi Melinfonwu, the Raiders will have a lot of great young secondary talent to develop over the next few years. 

11. Dolphins:  Maurice Hurst, DT, Michigan

- With Hurst now cleared to return to football after a health scare at the combine, his stock is rocketing back up to where it should have been this whole time. Big Mo is a truly dynamic 3-technique who reminds most people who watch him (myself included) of Aaron Donald. He's got a low center of gravity, really good hands and power for his size, and an insanely explosive first step. The Dolphins can slot him into their starting defensive line from day one and let him just go hunt quarterbacks.

12. Bills (via Bengals):  Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA

- I am still concerned about Rosen's history of concussions, as I stated before, but if I'm the Bills GM I have no choice but to take him here. We traded all the way up to the top twelve for a quarterback, and we sure as hell aren't going to leave one sitting on the board. Does his durability scare me? Definitely. Is he still good enough on the field to justify this risk? Absolutely.

13. Redskins:  Vita Vea, DT, Washington

- If Jim Tomsula could design his ideal two-gapping nose tackle from scratch, it would look like Vita Vea. I'm sure when he got a chance to coach him at the combine it was like seeing a vision from God. You should expect Jimmy T to lobby the front office very hard to get this guy in the building.

14. Packers:  Roquan Smith, LB, Georgia

- Like I predicted in this week's episode of The Film Room, Roquan could take a bit of a tumble down the draft board next month. I couldn't quite find a fit for him in the top 10, but at least I can end his slide here with the Packers. Green Bay has a tremendous amount of defensive line talent to keep Smith clean on the second level, which should allow his talents as a sideline to sideline clean up crew to shine even brighter.

15. Cardinals: Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville

- Lamar Jackson is not one of the 15 best players in this class, or at least not according to my current big board, but the Cardinals are a really good situation for him. With Sam Bradford now in town, Jackson might be able to ride the bench for a year and marinade while some combination of Bradford, Glennon, and Gabbert steers the ship. I don't expect the Cardinals to make the playoffs, but at the very least they might win enough games to justify keeping Jackson off the field before he is ready.

16. Ravens:  Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama 

- I don't care that the Ravens signed Michael Crabtree. They still need receivers...lots and lots of receivers.

17. Chargers:  Da'Ron Payne, DT, Alabama

- The Chargers are a team with very few actual needs. One of them is nose tackle, where Brandon Mebane is fast approaching the end of his career. Da'Ron Payne can play anywhere from 5-technique to a cocked nose like Mebane, and I think he's a natural fit to take over in a year or so.

18. Seahawks: Derwin James, SS/LB, Florida State

- Kam Chancellor is very iffy to return to the field after a career-threatening neck injury last season. As terrible as that is, the Seahawks need to start planning for the worst case scenario so that they are not caught off guard if it takes place. Derwin James can slide right into Chancellor's box safety role and inject some youth into a secondary that is going through a total overhaul.

19. Cowboys:  Isaiah Wynn, OL, Georgia

- I actually have Isaiah Wynn higher on my board than this, but I couldn't find a spot for him until now. He can play either tackle or guard because his feet are so damn good, but because of his sub-34" arms he will probably end up at guard. Ironically my comp for him was Zack Martin, who would be his teammate in Dallas. Don't be shocked if he goes higher than this in the actual draft next month.

20. Lions:  Harold Landry, EDGE, Boston College

- No, I'm not picking Landry here just because his former defensive line coach  (Paul Pasqualoni) happens to be the Lions new defensive coordinator. Landry is a legitimate top 15 talent who can be an immediate impact pass rusher from day one. His burst and bend are very reminiscent of Von Miller, and if he develops into even 80% of what Miller has become, he'll be well worth the pick.

21. Bengals (via Bills): Marcus Davenport, EDGE, UTSA

- The Bengals are somewhat thin in their defensive end rotation. Right now they just have Carlos Dunlap, Michael Johnson, and second year player Jordan Willis on the depth chart. Dunlap and Johnson can be solid at times, but Cincy needs an injection of youth and athleticism into the position. Davenport is raw, but he's got incredible upside. Letting him develop for a year as a rotational piece behind those veterans is a pretty good situation for him.

22. Bills (via Chiefs): Leighton Vander Esch, LB, Boise State

- Buffalo just lost Preston Brown in free agency, so they desperately need a new Mike linebacker. Vander Esch is a terrific athlete who had eye-popping production last year at Boise State, and I think his one year of starting tape is more than enough to justify the pick. He's a natural in zone coverage and could provide a lot more value on passing downs that Preston Brown ever did as well.

23. Rams:  Mike McGlinchey, OT, Notre Dame

- Yes, my first pure offensive tackle doesn't come off the board until the 23rd overall pick. I know that this is very late considering the positional value of OT, but unfortunately this just isn't that great of a tackle class. McGlinchey at least has the frame and physical tools to be a decent starter one day, but learning for a year behind Andrew Whitworth would do him a lot of good first. Considering Whitworth is turning 37 this season, the Rams need a plan in place for his eventual retirement anyway. 

It's a win win for everyone - LA has their future left tackle already on the roster, and McGlinchey gets a year to work out his flaws in hand placement and knee bend before he takes the field.

24. Panthers:  Josh Jackson, CB, Iowa 

- The Panthers' number one corner right now is James Bradberry. Need I say more?

25. Titans:  Connor Williams, OL, Texas 

- The Titans offensive line is overall a pretty good unit, but it couldn't hurt to add depth and competition to the left guard spot. After all, you're only as good as your worst offensive lineman. 

26. Falcons:  Taven Bryan, DL, Florida

- Bryan is a fantastic athlete who can fill Atlanta's need for a hybrid defensive end. Whether he's rushing as a 7-technique, 5-technique, or 3-technique, Bryan's explosiveness for a 290-pounder really jumps off the tape. He's not quite as long as you want for a defensive end, but he makes up for it with power, speed, and surprising bend for his size. In a perfect world, he'll develop into the Falcons' own version of Michael Bennett.

27. Saints: Harrison Phillips, DL, Stanford

- New Orleans could really use help on their interior line. Harrison Phillips can slide in as a 4-3 cocked nose from day one and provide value as both a run stopper and pocket pusher in the pass game. He's not as twitchy as Mo Hurst or as strong as Vita Vea, but he really knows how to get the most out of his leverage and hand placement. His wrestling background really shows up on the field.

28. Steelers: Mason Rudolph, QB, Oklahoma State

- My gut says that Big Ben only has one year left...maybe two at the most. Mason Rudolph might not be one of the first five quarterbacks off the board, but that doesn't mean that he's unworthy of first round consideration. There is a LOT to like about him on tape, whether it be his release, his quick progressions, or his decision making. The only real downside is that his arm strength is...well...not that great. 

Will he ever be an elite quarterback? Probably not, but I think he's a QB you can win a lot of games with, and in the post-Ben Steelers era they will want one of those around while they retool the roster. Getting a cheap fifth year option on a young quarterback is what makes this pick even more worth it, because if Rudolph does in fact work out, it gives the Steelers a lot of cap flexibility in that extra year.

29. Jaguars: Mike Gesicki, TE, Penn State

- The Jags don't really have many pressing needs outside of quarterback...though I suppose their need for a new QB is still an ongoing debate in the first place. I'm slotting Gesicki in here because he's a very high-upside weapon that can threaten the seams and give one more weapon for Bortles to inevitably overthrow.

30. Vikings: Will Hernandez, OG, UTEP

- What do you give to the team that has basically everything? Well...offensive line depth, of course!

31. Patriots: Mike Hughes, CB, UCF

- The Patriots have lost both of their previous starting corners in the past two offseasons, and now they are only left with Stephon Gillmore and Jason McCourty. That's not the worst duo in the world, but I think adding Mike Hughes to that position group to give them some competition (and depth in case of injury) is a pretty good idea.

32. Eagles: Derrius Guice, RB, LSU

- Blount is gone, Ajayi has one year left on his deal, and the door is wide open for Derrius Guice to emerge as the new bell cow next to Carson Wentz. It's hard to imagine a better situation for Guice than a loaded roster and a genius head coach that will know how to use him.