Matchup Analysis - Boros Energy

“The main character” deck of Modern at this point. The deck with the largest meta share and a solid win rate, even after having 3 cards banned out of it. Guess “MH3 Preconstructed Deck” is still good, huh?

Anyway, RW/x Energy is a deck that can blitz you down by creating an overwhelming board quickly, play control into Phlage, or a combination of the two. Since there is a ton of variation in what these lists can pack, I will be touching on the broad strokes about how this matchup plays out, and how you can best optimize your general plans to win.

Mulligan Strategy: As good as cards like Pyroclasm, Wear//Tear, etc can be, it is important to mulligan to a powerful hand. You will not win a long drawn-out game against them. They have a ton of inevitability in the form of Phlage, Ajani/Bombardment, and Ocelot swarms. Generally speaking, a 5-card hand that can kill on turn 2 is better than a 7 that can’t kill until turn 4-5. Plan out your first 2-3 turns when looking at your opening hand and ask yourself a few questions:
“How quickly can I kill?” “Can I kill through a removal spell?” “If I can’t kill through a removal spell or 2, how do I still win?” “What will I do if my opponent has a Guide + Pride start?”

Note that very few hands will be able to address all of the concerns above. That being said, considering these questions before keeping/mulliganing means that you will have a better grasp around what you can beat, what you can’t, and how to proceed. There are a number of hands where you can’t beat Blood Moon, Wrath of the Skies, or 3 removal spells. You ended to accept that and lean into the lines that beat the other lines they can have. 

Notable key cards: In this matchup, the trample effects should be given more value than usual. Boros is very good at chump blocking freely, and equipping a Hammer is fairly meaningless unless you can push through blockers. That means having a Leyline Axe start is huge, and is even reasonable to tutor for in the event you have a Hammer equip lined up to pair with it. Since this matchup can also turn into a race, Shadowspear can play a larger role than in most other matchup. Even gaining 5-6 life off a construct with a Spear can make or break this matchup.

Post-sideboard, I like to get all the Surges I can get my hands on, not only because of it being a 1-mana counterspell for their spot removal, but it also acts as a way to combo off through a Goblin Bombardment by casting it before making additional moves (especially with Inkmoth). Wear//Tear is also huge since it is a way to tag Bombardment, Stony Silence, and Static Prison as a bonus. Finally, I have come back around on Needle, since shutting off Bombardment or Ajani can win you the game. 

From the Boros side, in addition to the Galvanic Discharges, Static Prisons, and (sometimes) Thraben Charms in the main deck, they have exceptionally strong cards they may have in the sideboard. Wrath of the Skies, Stony Silence, Wear//Tear, and potentially Blood Moon are all weapons Boros has access to. The reality is that we are kind of just terrible against Wrath of the Skies, and that’s something you just have to accept. Stony Silence can be a headache, but using cards like Aid and Battlefield Improvisation can kind of clown on that card, and it is also a reason to value those over Paladin in the event you have to choose one to keep and one to bottom in a mulligan. Wear//Tear is another removal spell that gets covered by Surge, and is something you should keep in mind when deploying an early Saga. Blood Moon is less common right now, but it is something you should keep in mind when developing your mana in the early game. Even fetching a single basic Plains can neutralize Moon’s effect on the game. 

Bonus note sideboarding (Over-sideboarding) I have tried a lot of different approaches to the matchup, and I’ve found that the best plan we have is simply kill em fast. Against a good Boros player, Pyroclasm will almost never tag more than 1-2 creatures, especially since they are incentivized to deploy a bit of pressure then hold up removal/interaction. As such, I strongly advise against sideboarding more than 4-6 cards (at most), and focus on killing them ASAP. 

Stay lean and aggressive, get some evasion with trample or Inkmoth, and you’ll come out ahead more often than not.