Why the Pacers continue to be pure cinema

By the numbers 

By: Caitlin Cooper I @C2_Cooper

Turns out, sequels can be just as good -- or at least as much fun -- as the original. In standing still from his "lucky spot" above the break against the Dallas Mavericks, Andrew Nembhard didn't follow in the literal footsteps of Tyrese Haliburton and Obi Toppin. He wasn't rushing to the left corner out of a football-style play, as Haliburton did against the Milwaukee Bucks, and he didn't drift to that same area, pulling the pin from a grenade after being hammer screened in the same direction, as was the case for Toppin in Minnesota. But he delivered on yet another Hollywood-like finish for the Pacers, calmly marking the territory that he first laid claim to as a rookie, when he knocked down the first game-winner of his career in (where else?) Hollywood.

For the third time in the last nine days, the Pacers salvaged what looked like a loss with a big, late-game shot, and for the third time in the last nine days, it almost seemed like the Pacers were living out a movie that they didn't know existed.

Following halftime, Bennedict Mathurin emerged from the locker-room no longer wearing the neon green shoes that saw him start the game 1-of-5 from the field. Rather, with a wardrobe change from green to red, he proceeded to attack as though he was seeing that very color, repeatedly putting his head down and charging downhill out of simple hand-offs and slot-to-slot flips in order to puncture the seal on Dallas' ultra-small, switching defense.

With 20 seconds remaining, after he had scored 16 points in the frame while going a perfect 4-of-4 from the field and 8-of-8 at the line, he took an unexpected nosedive, turning his attempt to drive-and-kick into more of a stumble-and-fling. Still, Mathurin had done his part, flattening out the defense even as he also flattened himself, so that his hockey assist (while admittedly adding to the building tension), could lead to the climax of Nembhard's latest game-winner.

On the season, per Second Spectrum, the NBA has posted an effective field-goal percentage of just 32.29 percent on three-pointers attempted in the last 30 seconds of the fourth quarter or overtime with a score differential of three points or less. Over the last nine days, that number for the Pacers has been (no, this isn't a typo) 120.0 percent, as they've gone 4-of-5 overall, with Obi Toppin splitting a pair in Minnesota to go along with his game-winner, in addition to those from Haliburton and Nembhard. For further frame of reference, Indiana's expected effective field-goal percentage on those five shots was 32.42 percent making for a massive difference of 87.58 percent.

Needless to say, what the Pacers are doing is really hard; and yet, somehow, they're making it look easy. Just consider these other clutch numbers from the latest win.

• During the fourth quarter, the Pacers had at least two back-court defenders present on 17 possessions -- the most of any team in any game this season. Among those possessions, the Mavericks shot 6-of-9 from the field and got fouled six times. In the final minute, however, Dallas committed two turnovers, both of which came via full-court traps, involving some combination of Pascal Siakam, Ben Sheppard, and Aaron Nesmith.

• Of course, part of the reason why Indiana was able to execute those traps, with Siakam cornering Max Christie for the clutch steal after chasing him down from half-court, was because all five players (while far from leak-proof in the half-court) were capable of covering tons of ground in the open floor. On the season, Siakam has only played a total of seven clutch minutes without any of Obi Toppin, Thomas Bryant, or Myles Turner on the floor. Two of those minutes, aligning when the turnovers were forced, came against the Mavericks.

• Once the ball got ripped away and was eventually filtered to Bennedict Mathurin, it was notable that the ball continued to filter through Bennedict Mathurin. Among the 86 guards who have appeared in at least 40 games while averaging at least five drives, Mathurin's pass-out rate of 26.3 percent ranks 84th, trailing only De'Andre Hunter and Kelly Oubre. During the fourth quarter and overtime, he's been even less likely to pass, with that number sinking to 23.6 percent. This season, he's made exactly two passes out of drives during the final five minutes of games with a score differential of three points or less. Put simply, his literal misstep against the Mavericks, as it pertains to his footing, didn't result in a figurative misstep, with regard to potentially holding onto the ball too long. If anything, it likely encouraged him to keep the ball moving.

• Nembhard, meanwhile, has now gone 3-of-8 for his career on threes attempted in the last 30 seconds of games with a score differential of three points or less and all three are game-winners.

So, to summarize: In that single sequence, the Pacers ended up pulling out a win after applying more fourth-quarter pressure than any team this season with a lineup configuration that has barely played this season on a shot from a player who has struggled to consistently find his shot, except when his shot consistently finds him in the spotlight of his lucky spot, via a pass from a player who, in nearly dropping the ball, advanced by advancing the ball.

It isn't stranger than fiction, and there's plenty that's been left on the cutting room floor as to why that shot was ever even necessary after surrendering a 16-point lead to an undermanned Mavericks team that readily dictated terms at the center position as far as there eventually not being a position for actual centers. And yet, even as they've at times made hard things look easy and easy things look hard, there's no denying that the Pacers have been on quite the cinematic journey -- adding to their iconic string of scene-stealers while never allowing the final stages of these games to fully fade to black.