On the Pacers and ameliorating the new normal

Observations from a 23-2 run and why coming up short wasn't just about being short-handed

By: Caitlin Cooper I @C2_Cooper

With 6:06 to play in the third quarter, Tyrese Haliburton rejected a screen on his right and evaded a dig to his left to feed a cutting Myles Turner with a pocket pass for an emphatic, one-handed slam. For a pairing that had stumbled and bumbled through much of the first half, as they combined for just seven points on 3-of-18 shooting to go with two turnovers, the dunk was cathartic -- eliciting a boisterous scream from Turner while perhaps providing a turning point, both in the game as well as the season. Turns out, that play was a watershed moment, just not for the Pacers. After going up 64-51 and taking their biggest lead of the game, the Blue-and-Gold proceeded to be on the wrong side of a 23-2 run, as the floodgates opened for a Charlotte team that made eight of their next 11 shots with Brandon Miller going a perfect 4-of-4 from deep. Meanwhile, the only shot the Pacers managed to convert came via an air-ball from Obi Toppin that Turner fortunately recycled into a putback. It was that kind of night, filled with slapstick comedy (bricked dunks! wide open threes that didn't even strike iron! some boggled post-ups that could only be explained by a rogue banana peel!), but also a lot of dark humor, which looms large in spite of, as well as in light of, the recent rash of injuries.

Here's what was concerning about the 23-2 run that saw the game turn in favor of the Hornets.

Reconciling Differences

Bennedict Mathurin is finishing at the rim better than ever, getting to the line more frequently than ever, and knocking down threes more efficiently than ever, but his defense still has a tendency to wax and wane, sometimes, within the same possession. Here, after getting clipped by the screen, he basically just hugs the screener and forces Turner to switch out while simultaneously allowing himself to get buried by the mismatch under the rim. Then, when Jarace Walker proceeded to get dusted by the subsequent pick with Turner tethered to Miller's gravity slipping out to the perimeter, Mathurin barely moved a muscle, not even attempting to peel switch or plug the gap from the corner.

That wasn't a one-off either, as there was also a fairly egregious possession in the first half when he didn't even get touched by the screen and basically just meandered into the high-paint while forcing Toppin into an emergency rotation. With the way Haliburton is struggling along with how certain teams have taken to "hiding" their stars on the fifth starter, there's a strong argument for Mathurin to remain in the starting lineup even once the roster is fully healthy, but those types of plays don't exactly reinforce his case, nor do the numbers. So far this season, the Pacers have been outscored by 7.33 points per 100 possessions in the 173 minutes that Haliburton and Mathurin have been on the floor together, continuing a trend from last season, in which they got outscored by 2.41 points per 100 possessions in 698 minutes. As such, more than the outcome of this game or those specific possessions, monitoring whether the Pacers can win the minutes with those two on the floor, as Mathurin is pressed into taking on top assignments, might be the most critical storyline for the Pacers this season -- especially once Haliburton starts looking more like himself.

That said, the issues with screen navigation weren't only limited to Mathurin. With all due respect to Siakam, who was basically Atlas carrying the weight of the world on his shoulders in this game, there is next to no chance that he is going to stay attached to Brandon Miller in lock-and-trail when forced to chase over on a stagger without switching.

To be fair, the defense, particularly between Siakam and Walker, was more effective in the first half when they were able to switch. So, why didn't they switch on that possession? Well, on the first screen, Walker was glancing over his shoulder, likely in anticipation that Mann was going to curl to the basket. That's why, when Mann veered instead into a pindown, Walker was way out of position. No switch was ever going to be possible at that point. The second screen, though, is an ongoing representation of the quandaries of defending with Siakam and Turner within the same action. Siakam needs to switch and Turner needs to not switch. As such, the result is an open three for Miller. Granted, if Nembhard or Nesmith had been available, then one of them could've taken on the assignment against Miller with Siakam matched-up instead against Grant Williams in the corner. Still, there are going to be times when Siakam has to guard the ball or chase an off-ball cutter when Turner is the back-stop. (Remember, this happened time and time again in New Orleans, too).

Overall, the Pacers have been much better defensively when Siakam is on the floor. Some of that is due to a large swing in opponent three-point percentage and the fact that they've turned the ball over less and made more shots when he's on the floor, but he's also dialed up his intensity, at least with more consistency, than last season. Just look at this possession from the first half in which he made the call to kick Haliburton out of the screening action before using his length at the nail to dig the ball free and then making the hustle play to dive on the floor to recover it.

In that way, not unlike Mathurin's undeniable improvement on offense and as a rebounder, Siakam has also made strides at the other end of the floor. The question, even as both of them do the heaviest lifting to pace the team in scoring, has less to do with them individually as much as bridging the gaps in battening the hatches with Haliburton, as it relates to the former, and reconciling the need for disparate coverages alongside Turner, with regard to the latter.

Acknowledging Differences

This isn't normal. As was pointed out in last month's mailbag, Yahoo's Kevin O'Connor confirmed on his podcast this week that sources around the league also believe that Haliburton's back is what's leading to some of his struggles to start the season. This was evident again in Charlotte. He clearly isn't a stout defender even when healthy, but he essentially wants no part of contesting Cody Martin on either of these plays, neither against his physical last step after getting snagged on the back-screen nor in doing anything but a gentle bluff when outnumbered in transition.

This generally starts to show up toward the end of the third quarter, including in Dallas, after he has played nearly the entire frame. At the other end of the floor, meanwhile, he very notable didn't take this shot with the defense in rotation and then continues to look as though he has very little lift or extension on his floater in the lane thereafter.

And that comes after a first half in which, on three consecutive possessions, he barely hit the front of the rim on a step-back three, missed a layup after stuttering his steps, and looked as though it took everything he had only to come up empty on a running dunk. Don't get it twisted. This isn't meant to emphasize his struggles, as much as to acknowledge that these struggles aren't normal. It's one thing to miss shots. It's quite another to avoid taking shots or appear as though he has to make up a plan as he goes, getting tied up by the defense as he hesitates between trying to stop-and-pop or looking for a skip pass, when generally he would have a plan for how he plans to manipulate the defense before he ever even starts to go. Andrew Nembhard and T.J. McConnell didn't play. This is no longer about (and, quite frankly, was never about) him being relegated off ball by the other point guards on the floor.

He was the only point guard available, and he recorded 39.3 ball-screens per 100 possessions, which is less than he averaged last season after Buddy Hield was traded (43.9), which was already a dip from the 54.9 he was averaging prior to that roster change. And, here's the thing: In what was their lowest scoring game (83) since Haliburton went 0-of-9 against the Miami Heat in December of 2022, when the team only tallied 82 points, the Pacers only generated 0.739 points per chance out of his ball-screens. Back then, there was an obvious change in coverage that bottled him up, as the team actively looked for ways to avoid Bam Adebayo at the receiving end of the switches and saw their star guard doubled anytime he managed to hunt down a favorable match-up. By the end of the month, when the Pacers played the Heat again, he had found a solve: extending his range to exploit the switch pocket, as he amassed 43 points, including going 10-of-16 from three.

This is different. What happened in this game isn't about the need to ameliorate a coverage; it's about the need to ameliorate whatever is bothering him. That becomes more difficult when the other two point guards on the roster, who weren't holding him back but could perhaps shoulder some of the burden or allow him time to figure out what steps need to be taken to find his footing, aren't available. At any rate, the pick-and-roll possession that saw Turner let out a boisterous scream didn't turn out to be a turning point in this game, and it also shouldn't be allowed to go quietly as an inflection point from the abnormality that is slowly becoming the new normal.