The Definitive Pacers vs. Celtics ECF Preview

By: Caitlin Cooper I @C2_Cooper

After making all of the shots against the New York Knicks and setting an NBA record for field-goal percentage, the Indiana Pacers are headed back to the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time in 10 years, facing a Boston Celtics team that leads the league in net rating, true shooting percentage, and rebounding rate throughout the playoffs despite playing five of their nine games without Kristaps Porzingis. During the regular season, the Pacers played four of their five games against Boston without Pascal Siakam, and Tyrese Haliburton was on a minutes restriction in that game, which also saw T.J. McConnell sidelined and came before Andrew Nembhard had rejoined the starting lineup. Needless to say, a lot has changed since some of these games, and a lot also changed during these games.

Just think back to the match-up at the end of January, when Siakam was available. To start that game, Kristaps Porzingis was guarding Myles Turner. By the end of the game, he had gone from taking on reps against Siakam to defending Aaron Nesmith. Meanwhile, Myles Tuner finished out that contest guarding Derrick White. In other games, there have been possessions when Jrue Holiday has intentionally played at the five as the screener, while also defending at the five in the middle of a 2-1-2 zone that morphed between man and zone. Likewise, Porzingis (who's availability for this series is unknown) also intentionally logged possessions guarding T.J. McConnnell.

In that regard, if there is a through-line to be found in these match-ups, it's the way in which the center position has been managed and reacted to by both teams. Likewise, another common thread which the Pacers will have to, well, delicately thread is the hellacious shot-making of Jayson Tatum. In five games, Tatum has an effective field-goal percentage of 68.07 percent against the Pacers, which is 19.18 percent above his shot quality (48.9 percent). In addition to weak-ing Haliburton left with Derrick White and face-guarding him with Jrue Holiday, the Celtics were also relentless in targeting Haliburton on defense, not only searching for mismatches with Jaylen Brown and Tatum, but also in forcing him to guard through multiple actions. Put simply, they played a lot of these games like playoff games. So, although everyone wasn't always available for both teams or operating at full-strength, there is still plenty to draw from as to how they stack up against each other.

As such, Samson Folk has generously agreed to stick around for another round, joining to discuss all of the ways in which this series has the potential to get weird. Enjoy!

Here are the relevant timestamps:

0:00 - Introductions

1:31 - Samson the talisman

3:54 - Things are going to get weird

4:17 - Importance of the center position and how it is deployed and reacted to

14:36 - Differentiating between the Jays and who should be guarding them

27:07 - Guards playing as centers and centers defending guards

33:53 - Boston's exaggerated coverages against Haliburton

37:04 - Why this might be a stamina series for Haliburton

41:36 - Brief aside on inside-hand dribbling out of hand-offs

44:08 - How the Celtics targeted Haliburton + finding off-ball hacks

49:12 - Does peel switching lead to complacency?

55:58 - Boston's low drive rate vs. Indiana's high rate of surrendering drives

59:19 - Thank you and Goodbye