Quick thoughts: SVE Worlds Deck Diversity

I remember a few weeks back saying that people don't play the objectively best decks, even in the biggest (closed-invite) tournaments of the year.

It was a prediction I made before the event even happened, but let's take a look at the deck breakdown at Worlds:

• Dirt 25

• Bats 19

• BW Sword 9

• Puppet 8

• Draconic Duelist 3

• Lishenna 3

• Nat Dragon 2

• Ramp Dragon 1

• Control Abyss 1

• Hunter Forest 1

• Fairy Forest 1

• Nat Forest 1

• 2 Cost Abyss 1

• Amulet Haven 1

• Kuon 1

• Ward Haven 1

• Thief Sword 1

Top 8 Breakdown (Fun fact, three Australian players made top 8)

• 1 bats

• 1 bw sword

• 1 fairy forest

• 1 kuon

• 4 dirt

If this truly is a competition of the "best players in the world," then this type of deck diversity shouldn't be possible. Yeah, sometimes there's "hidden-OP" decks, but most of the time, those people brought the wrong deck. My friend came third with Kuon this worlds, he's a skilled player, and admittedly, Kuon probably is one of those "good for this format" type of decks. But the others? It's like the Simpsons scene where someone suggests they'll vote third party, and the aliens laugh and say "Go ahead! Throw away your vote!"

As for why people don't always pick the best deck, let's evaluate ine of the most commonly uttered phrases across all card games: "The mirror sucks!"

But how often is this actually true? Does the mirror actually suck? Or is it actually the player saying it that sucks? Take a reality where there's actually a large skill component to the mirror. In this reality, a player that says the mirror sucks is obviously just unaware of their own shortcomings. Now, to be fair, if the player has actually tried their best and can't make it work, then they should not play the deck where they expect to lose the mirror. They should focus on what gives them the highest chances of winning. So sure, I understand why they might not play the best deck in format in such a case. But again, it implies that we are not really at the pinnacle of skill level, because it's my belief that most top-tier card game players should be able to play multiple top tier decks. Especially when it's the title of World Champion on the line.

Other people have superstitious reasons for choosing a specific deck. Sometimes it's cause they like a specific character or because they think there's some supernatural element at play that will favour them if they choose it. In reality, though, unless the deck is actually better than another choice, that's actively sabotaging your own chances of winning. There's far more untold tales of failure than the few cases where someone brings their pet deck and does well with it.

The other important thing to note is that sometimes, even the person bringing the secret best deck may not do well on the day. After all, by virtue of it being a secret deck, it'll usually just be a few people on it.

When we play card games, the crucial concept is to critically evaluate a given situation and to not use "results-based analaysis." A deck isn't good just because it made top 8. The same way that a deck isn't necessarily bad just because it failed to do so.

But one pattern is clear; in this worlds, and at many such competitions in the past, many players are simply making the wrong decision when they bring their specific decks. And perhaps this is to be expected. In America, you sometimes get 200 player events for SVE. In various other parts of the world, maybe you're getting like 30 players? Then on top of that, add the concept of bo1 to these small tournaments, and it begins to add up that not every player at the World Championships are a top tier player.

Notably, Dirt Rune had the highest popularity and also the highest representation in the top cut. Despite losing to Bats, I think it's fairly clear that Bats were not the best deck of the format. Wibbs is obviously a skilled player, but I'd argue he benefited from a bo1 format. But, to be fair, the format of Bushiroad World Championships is not to find the best player - it's to find the World Champion. It's an important, yet somewhat sad distinction.