Analyzing TSN's Trade Bait (Part 1)

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This year's trade deadline looks to be one of the more boring ones in recent memory (and that's saying something - who could forget the Mikkel Boedker sweepstakes). The combination of a long-overdue frugality around first round picks and a weak rental class means that there are few true impact players on the market. Nonetheless, we're all going to watch it anyway, so we might as well try to understand how good some of these guys actually are. This post will discuss the top five trade candidates based on TSN's latest Trade Bait board.

#1 - Chris Kreider

There can be no doubt that Chris Kreider is the belle of the ball this year. Rarely does a rental come around who checks every box for a contending team: makes your team grittier? Check. Makes your team faster? Check. Scores goals? Check. Kreider's reputation among the analytics crowd has long been sterling due to his superb play-driving stats, and indeed his offensive Goals Above Replacement numbers are truly elite at even strength and the powerplay. However, this season has seen a significant decline in his defensive performance which could be a red flag. While Kreider is probably the highest impact player who will be dealt, whoever pays top dollar for him (at the deadline and in the summer) had better hope that his current defensive woes are a blip rather than a trend. Prediction: Colorado

#2 - Alec Martinez

Alec Martinez will retire from the NHL with at least two Stanley Cup rings and a dream-come-true overtime winning goal, but he will not retire with the affection of the analytics community. The minute-munching defenceman, who has a year remaining on his contract and can play both sides on the ice, is exactly the kind of player that most teams covet. But this reputation doesn't mesh with his on-ice performance, which is at best mediocre and at worst replacement level. Martinez will not help your team defensively in any sense and does not profile as a productive offensive defenceman either. But a Cup-winning veteran defenceman who can play the right side will be coveted no matter what, and it will be telling which GM elects to pay the price. Prediction: Columbus

#3 - Jean-Gabriel Pageau

Similarly to the previous two players, Jean-Gabriel Pageau profiles as the type of player contenders desperately want on their rosters in the playoffs: defensively sound centres with high-profile postseason experience. The Senators centre has done himself (and Pierre Dorion) a massive favour this year with a massive bounce-back season, going from well below-replacement top top six calibre overnight. Pageau is the kind of player a team will likely overpay in the offseason, but based on his performance to-date this season there's reason to believe he will be well worth the price at the deadline. One thing to watch: Pageau's reputation as a premier penalty killer is not reflected by the numbers, and it is likely that whichever team acquires him will do so expecting him to fill that role in the playoffs. Prediction: New York Islanders

#4 - Sami Vatanen

Sami Vatanen's career has taken an interesting turn since his exodus from the Anaheim Ducks in 2017. He has slowly but surely regained his footing from a brutal debut with the Devils and now profiles once more as a competent enough powerplay specialist. Whichever team acquires him should make no mistake about where his value lies: it's not at even strength, particularly on defence where he ranks among the worst NHL defencemen playing over 20 minutes a night. His trade value will be artificially inflated by his handedness, but hopefully his new team deploys him the right way. Prediction: Edmonton

#5 - Brenden Dillon

If you're anything like me, watching Brenden Dillon get benched by Pete DeBoer when the Sharks were trying to protect their game 7 lead against Vegas was extremely frustrating. That's because very few players in the NHL provide the defensive value that Dillon does - especially impressive on a very leaky Sharks blueline. While his performance his dipped somewhat this season, he still projects to be a valuable 3rd-pairing (actual) defensive defenceman. Prediction: Carolina