How to campaign: Labour

Over the coming weeks I plan on writing a column setting out how I would design an election campaign for each party (that is currently in Parliament).

This week is Labour.

Current status: How good is their situation? Just about every polling company has them over 50% at the moment, which has never been achieved at an MMP election. In fact, you need to go all the way back to 1951 to find the last time a political party got over 50% of the vote in an election in NZ. So, if Labour managed to hold its polling there, it would be quite the achievement.

What to campaign on: Covid. Covid covid covidcovidcovvvviiid. Did you hear about Jacinda's response to Covid?

That's the boring option. And it's the safe option. Because the Government has genuinely done a phenomenal job of our Covid response. Just today my family and I went out to the vege market, we took Greta to a playground, people were milling around chatting and smiling. And this is going on while the rest of the world burns. I just saw that across the ditch in Victoria they had 263 new cases. We had three. And they were all in managed isolation.

However.

They cannot sit back and rest on their laurels. The ascension of Judith Collins to leader of National has given the right a big dose of adrenaline. 

National announced Chris Bishop's silly infrastructure package the other day with several roads and tunnels and things. And while it was dumb to lead with the big-ticket tunnels that were uncosted, at least they were ideas. Labour cannot risk being seen as boringly status quo while National is churning out ideas.

Last election people were excited by some of Labour's ideas. Particularly Kiwibuild and Light Rail. Obviously Kiwibuild tanked (though Labour has built a huge amount of State housing which is good), and the light rail didn't pan out, but they can still have big bold ideas.

But rather than just ideas, I think Labour should go for the emotional response. Paint a picture of New Zealand into the future under a Labour Government. What will it mean for our children? What will it mean for me, when I wake up in my warm, dry home and take my electric car or bus or whatever to my job? Show me a future I want and then tell me how you'll deliver it. Because at the moment we haven't seen a lot of vision from anyone.

If you want a vision of a future under Judith Collins' National, imagine a car driving on a road over a poor person's face - forever.

Take me away from this dystopic nightmare National portrays and give me something to hope for. Hope is the most powerful driver of voter behaviour, and in Jacinda Ardern, Labour has the most empathetic and likeable leader we've had in a long time. She can inspire home, she just needs the tools, ideas and words to take me there. 

If I was campaign director for Labour, I'd be churning out ideas, but safe ones. Labour's sky-high polling is due to a number of centrist folk thinking Labour are safe not going to do something radical. Labour needs to hold on to those people. It can allow its left to be mopped up by the Greens.

So maybe some housing policies around heat pumps for everyone. Also, policies oriented around children are great – so extend the food in schools’ packages as far as you can. And if you wanted to take a risk get that Ministry of Works idea a dust off. We’re going to need JOBS JOBS JOBS you tell me, so you might as well rebirth the Ministry to create them.

They also need to think about how important it is to them that the Greens get back in. They desperately don't want the Greens to get 4.5%. That's a lot of wasted vote for the left that'll most likely see a National-ACT hellscape unfold. So, if the Greens are in serious danger of missing out then maybe think about an electorate deal. Auckland Central is the one everyone is talking about, but I can understand why Labour might be loath to give that one up. It's a pretty major seat. I’ve never understood why Wellington Central hasn’t been more of an option. I’m pretty sure Wellington Central has the highest Green Party vote, and James Shaw runs in it. But that would be asking Grant to give up his electorate seat. Again, an unlikely scenario.

Prediction: Usual disclaimer that I’m loathed to make predictions. But I’m doing it for these pieces. I think Collins isn’t likely to take a huge amount of Labour vote, but there will be some who are natural National voters who were just waiting for someone competent to lead them. So, I am picking Labour will get about 46% which might just be enough to govern alone depending on the wasted vote.