National's saviour of the polls?

National Party supporters can breathe a sigh of relief. They no longer have the dreaded 2 in the front of their polling numbers according to a leaked internal poll from Labour. It's a 3. Followed by a 0. 

Yes in a polling period that only started from when Muller took over, he's taken National from 29 in the most recent Colmar Brunton poll that toppled Simon, to 30. Bravo Todd, loving the honeymoon bounce you got.

The poll continues the good news for Labour, it's at 54 per cent. And a surprisingly good poll for NZFirst, which is on 5. The Greens may have to start worrying now as they are on 4 on this poll, while ACT is at 1.8.

So looking at the last four polls we get:

Labour: 55 - 56.5 - 59 - 54

National: 30 - 30.6 - 29 - 30

Greens: 5 - 5.5 - 4.7 - 4

NZFirst: 6 - 2.7 - 2.9 - 5

ACT: 3 - 1.8 - 2.2 - 1.9

Both the first and last polls in that series are Labour's internal polling company, UMR.

It's all pretty steady for Labour and National. It's a 24-30 point gap.

You'll see that UMR tends to favour NZFirst - registering it a couple of points higher than other polling companies. But at that level it's statistical noise. 

Funnily enough, a one point bounce for Todd mirrors Simon's one point bounce he got when he took over. But that was when National was in the 40s and ahead of Labour.

I think National was more looking for a bigger bounce than that, given there is just three months until the election. But since taking over Todd has had a mare.

His MAGA hat and his all white National Front bench is now looking even worse given that race relations has become a huge feature all around the world - and in particularly the United States, with the Black Lives Matter movement.

Good luck Todd, you're going to need it, because ... well ... not a good start.