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Politics Theory Other
Politics Theory Other

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Does Labour face terminal decline? w/ Jeremy Gilbert

With the prospect of another potential Labour by-election defeat in Batley and Spen next month, Jeremy Gilbert joins PTO to talk about the prospect of the Labour Party facing further erosion in its support and whether the Keir Starmer project is even about winning elections or if the goal is simply to defeat and marginalise the Labour left.

Does Labour face terminal decline? w/ Jeremy Gilbert

Comments

I agree, Starmer is ridiculous.

Cave Canem

I rate JG

Chris Martin

What bits about it did you find infuriating/ridiculous?

Branan Geoghegan

This is the most infuriating episode of PTO I’ve ever heard. This guy is ridiculous.

Jessica walsh

Sorry as an American most say Biden has done very little for left. He could do so much more. He has gotten for some reason Bernie to not attack him. But if he doesn’t pass his bill this year the damn will break

Gabo Goff

Actually disagree with this analysis (not that this means it shouldn't be performed) But what I don't get is if the motivation for the left is to theorise, operationalise and organise for utopia, how can that be married with "focusing minds" within the Labour Party to back yet another candidate that will keep the left in an abusive relationship? This was picked up with the idea that we can get "concessions" of leaderships a little more left. This resonates with the Post-defeat speeches that discussed the cycles of rising again. Those cycles have a period of over 3 decades. This cannot be the lefts narrative. Climate disaster is a thing

Mohammed Mumit

Thanks. I would be interested in hearing Jeremy's views. My own view for what it is worth is that the past five or so years have shown that the interests of the left are best served by the Labour party being Pasokified as quickly as possible preferably leaving a rump of solely SCG members. Smaller left parties should run against Labour in all Labour seats other than those held by SCG members. Remaining a member of the Labour party is a personal choice, but if the sole reason for doing so is to have a vote in the next leadership election, then that can be achieved without funding the party either directly or, as things stand, indirectly by quitting the party and joining Unite. I believe Unite have either stopped or drastically reduced their contributions to the party, and as a member you can get a vote in the Labour leadership election. I appreciate that Jeremy as a current member of the party may not feel able to comment on this proposal, but I would like you to put it to him. Thanks

jcoprario

Thanks Neal - as with the comment above, I'm recording a follow up episode with Jeremy and will put this to him.

Politics Theory Other

thanks! I'm recording a follow up episode with Jeremy and will put this point to him.

Politics Theory Other

Bernie's favorability ratings were a bit of fools gold in 2020. It is true, for a time, that he was the most popular politician in America -- especially from about 2016 to 2018. However, during the 2020 Dem primary he had a net negative favorability rating. During a contested political campaign, most candidates will see their numbers take a hit. During a period outside of a political campaign, favorability becomes a rough proxy for "name ID". e.g. Hillary Clinton had a net favorability rating of almost +20 in 2012, after she had stepped away from being Secretary of State. Those numbers went negative quickly, as soon as it was clear she was trying to re-enter political life. One lesson to take from Bernie and Biden is that both were forced to develop their skills as retail politicians over the course of multiple political campaigns. In contrast, Hillary Clinton parachuted into NY State already as a celebrity candidate, and was lifted into office by the state Democratic Party machinery (in a state that was beginning to trend strongly towards the Democrats). The Hillary Clinton parallel seems to be more similar to PLP members who are parachuted into safe seats. Perhaps someone like Andy Burnham is a better example of someone who has won office doing retail politics. The answer in both the US and the UK is that the party structure has to be built at the local level from the ground up. There have to be networks and support structures built years in advance of elections that are able to resist the propaganda and attacks that come from big media companies. Political parties need to have more of an organic connection to local communities in between elections. If the only communication that voters receive is a PR campaign right before an election, it's likely to have a much weaker impact. All this is easier said than done.

J P 3

All good until it came to Burnham, Rainer, etc. becoming leader. Truth is there really isn't anybody currently experienced enough and able to carry the members with them. Perhaps in the future but is there enough time. Starmer and co. are running fast into oblivion.

Neal McTaggart

I enjoy the podcast, and it is always interesting to hear Jeremy's analysis, but the stanning for McDonnell is counterproductive. He also needs to flesh out how he thinks the left could hold Rayner or Burnham to account. If they can't do it with Starmer how will they all of a sudden have more success with a different cuckoo in the nest?

jcoprario


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