Russia-Ukraine War Flash Report - 06 FEB 2024 22:20 PDT - Poland Scrambles F-16s

There was a large-scale missile and drone attack on Ukraine with two Russian cruise missiles loitering along the Poland-Ukraine border for up to 20 minutes, including making two approaches toward the Polish border.

Here is what we can confirm. Watching flight tracking, it appears that the southern part of the Polish NOTAM issued on February 4 was cleared of commercial air traffic. A USAF KC-135 refueling aircraft was orbiting near the Poland-Ukraine border. 

The General Staff of the Polish Armed Forces issued a Tweet (Xeet?)  at 21:15 PST, "We would like to inform you that intensive long-range aviation activity of the Russian Federation is being observed, related to missile strikes on the territory of Ukraine.  All necessary procedures to ensure the safety of Polish airspace have been launched, and DO RSZ is monitoring the situation on an ongoing basis.  We warn that Polish and allied aircraft have been activated, which may result in increased noise levels, especially in the south-eastern part of the country."

About 10 minutes later, there were multiple reports that 3 Polish Air Force F-16s were deployed to the southeastern corner of Poland to intercept at least one Russian cruise missile.

A few minutes later, there were reports in Ukraine of an explosion in the Drohobych raion, which is about 50 km from the Polish border. The cruise missiles that caused the Polish response flew to within 20 km of the Polish border twice. 

There is a lot of chatter in the information space that the Polish Air Forces shot down 2 Russian cruise missiles in Ukrainian air space that is unconfirmed. While Poland has a policy of working with the United States Air Force for aerial refueling support while they fly combat air patrol involving two to four F-16s during Russian missile attacks, this is the most direct statement from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Poland.

We cannot confirm that there was any missile intercept by Ukraine or Poland at this time. Commercial air traffic is operating in the NOTAM region again.

Regardless, given the Kh-101/102/55/555 cruise missiles fly fixed flight paths, this was a signal from Moscow and a test of NATO resolve. It is also worth noting that last week, Poland telegraphed its intention to intercept Russian missiles they deemed a threat to their air space. Partial responsibility for this Russian provocation lies with the United States Congress.