Venezuela-Guyana Flash Report 11DEC23 13:15 PST - Maduro Suddenly Wants to Talk

Who would have thought that signaling the intent to invade your neighbor due to a 175-year-old border dispute would raise the ire of an unlikely alliance of Brazil, the United States, the United Kingdom, Suriname, and France? Nicolas Maduro read the room and, at least for now, has changed his tune, seeking a peaceful solution to solve the Essequibo crisis. One problem - Maduro is not negotiating in good faith as the only "solution" for Venezuela is annexation, and the current threats to ongoing oil exploration projects off the coast of Guyana have not been lifted.

Responding to a request for help from Guyana and likely a phone call from London, the United States Air Force has started conducting air patrols in Guyana's airspace. Maduro may want Essequibo, but he doesn't want Tomahawk cruise missiles wiping out his military capabilities. Further, Brazil has signaled that if military action is taken by Venezuela, at the minimum, it will secure the main ground line of communication (GLOC) into Guyana, which is only accessible through Brazil. 

Another sign that the action that Maduro thought would be a slam dunk has met unexpected resistance, Russian state media has jumped into the fray. Neutral coverage, which, begrudgingly, has to be called balanced, has shifted after the USAF got involved. Now, Russian state media is trying to tie the United States' insatiable appetite for oil to the crisis. You have to ignore the fact that Canada bought the Guyana oil leases, Venezuela's oil still flows into the OPEC bucket despite sanctions, and it's the Russian economy propped up by oil sales, not the United States.

For now, the crisis appears to have cooled because Maduro doesn't want war with Brazil, the U.S., and the U.K. Further, there is almost no support for Venezuela in South and Central America or the Caribbean nations. The only thing Nicaragua and Cuba can offer is, "You go! You stick it to the man! We'll sit here at a distance and watch." Mexico isn't going to jeopardize its neutral status in global conflicts and go against its largest trading partner. While we believe it is highly likely Moscow is behind this latest crisis, Russia has to buy weapons from Iran and North Korea to prop up its ongoing war effort in Ukraine.

So, for now, the Venezuela-Guyana Crisis has cooled, but a watchful eye needs to be maintained.