Israel-Hamas War SITREP for 15 NOV 2023 - David "The Malcontent" is Back Edition

Action Report

The information space remains highly problematic, with an extreme amount of disinformation being spread by the proxies of both combatants. Unless we state, “we were able to independently verify the claim,” or provide three unique sources in the report, the claims should be considered “unverified.” Otherwise, every third sentence would be, “We cannot independently verify the claim.”

Gaza Strip and Southern and Central Israel

The IDF secured the Al-Shifa Hospital in what appears to have been light fighting after announcing they were launching a ground operation in the compound. Five Hamas militants were reportedly killed on hospital grounds but outside of any buildings. The IDF has released a video showing the discovery of small weapons caches in the radiology complex. There are no credible reports of significant casualties due to fighting. It is worth noting the Ministry of Health of Gaza claimed 40 patients died at Al-Shifa on November 14. There is no way to verify the claim.

The IDF now controls the coastline from the northern border of the Gaza Strip to just north of the Sharm Amusement Park. The IDF has cut the Gaza Strip in two, following the road from the Aram Factory Park east to Israa University, north of Al Mughraqa, to Juhor ad Dik. The area controlled ranges from 2 to 3.5 kilometers wide. You can view the map updated by our friends at War Mapper.

The area under IDF control includes the Salah Al Deen green corridor that extends from Hamas-controlled Gaza City to Wadi Ghaza, which represents the boundary of the so-called “safe zone.” Approximately 5,000 refugees moved through the green corridor, where reports of intense filtration continue. The United Nations reported that the IAF established an unstaffed checkpoint where people move through two shipping containers. People in transit are required to show their IDs within the portable structures, and it is believed facial recognition is being used to validate identities. We cannot confirm the purpose of the facilities.

The IDF also has full control of the Al Shati Camp, a refugee camp in name only and now an urban district of Gaza City. Israeli forces are facing stiffer resistance in northeast Gaza, in the area of Beit Hanoun.

Ground fighting was reported in Khan Younis, which is within the designated “safe area” declared by the IDF, and would indicate that both combatants are not honoring the safe area. The IDF received close air support from the IAF, with Hamas officials claiming 13 Palestinians were killed and 20 wounded.

Rocket attacks launched by Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and other militant and terrorist organizations from the Gaza Strip into southern and central Israel continued, with no fatalities reported.

ASSESSMENT: Yes, I’m back. The earlier assessment by the team that the IDF would face a bitter months-long campaign within the Gaza Strip and risked causing and suffering unacceptable civilian and military casualties was only marginally accurate. Outrage is growing at the number of reported civilian casualties within the Gaza Strip, while the IDF is suffering far fewer combat-related fatalities than we anticipated despite transitioning to urban warfare. I agree with Jeff and the team that by the time the U.S. Congress takes up the issue of military aid for Israel in December, major fighting could be reaching its conclusion. Hamas’s ability to strike Israel with rockets has been significantly degraded. It is unclear if this is due to available inventory, losses, or suppression and interdiction by the IDF and IAF. It is likely a combination of all of the above.

We have considered that Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and other organizations are preparing for a stronger defensive operation as Israeli forces advance deeper into Gaza City, but the window for such an action is likely closing as the IDF tightens its grip on Gaza City.

Hamas likely expected significantly more support from Lebanese Hezbollah, the PLO, militants in the West Bank, and political rivals such as Lion’s Den with the backing of Tehran and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. Our assessment that political rhetoric out of Tehran was largely hollow was accurate, and in mid-October, actions by Hezbollah appeared to be setting conditions for larger military action. It is likely the legitimate Lebanese government put significant pressure on Iran to stop pressuring Hezbollah, with similar back-channel talks probably coming from Jordan. Lebanon never recovered from its previous civil war, the devastating Beirut harbor blast, and COVID-19.

Hamas’s antitank capabilities beyond RPGs appear to have been largely neutralized, and Israel appears to be trading armor for the protection of troops. Antiarmor strikes on tanks and armored fighting vehicles have likely resulted in only mission kill or mobility kill damage. There also appears to be a significant reduction in the number of drone strikes conducted by Hamas, indicating a logistics and supply issue.

It is unclear if the lack of additional resistance and support for Hamas within the Gaza Strip is due to civilian frustration with the breach of the ceasefire on October 7, an unwillingness to join the resistance due to the scarcity of food, water, and fuel, or what is starting to appear to be an unwinnable war – as Hamas would define victory in their 1988 Covenant and 2017 general principles and objectives document.

United Nations 200 Blue Line Border between Israel and Lebanon and the Golan Heights

Harassment attacks using drones, rockets, and artillery continued along the Israel-Lebanon border, with Israel responding with counterbattery, drones, and airstrikes. There continues to be no indication that Lebanese Hezbollah or other militant factions are preparing to start a broader campaign.

The West Bank

There has been a decrease in settler violence after intense international pressure and several anti-terror arrests of extremist Zionist leaders, with four incidents recorded in the last 24 hours, which is close to the pre-war average. Reported incidents included acts of vandalism in At Taybe, Umm At Tiran, Mantiqat Shi'b al Butum, and Ramallah. The U.N. reported that since October 7, 2% of all recorded violent or combat-related deaths in the West Bank were related to settler violence.

The IDF launched what they described as an anti-terror operation in the Tulkham Refugee Camp, which turned into a pitched battle that lasted for over four hours and required close air support from the IAF. Seven Palestinians were killed, and medics accused the IDF of impeding rescue efforts. An eighth Palestinian was killed in a separate incident when they attacked an Israeli soldier at the Beit Einun checkpoint near Hebron City.

Despite repeated calls by Hamas and through the Iranian Revolutionary Guard for Palestinian militants to join in the Al Aqsa Flood and war against Israel, there are no indications that attacks are expanding beyond their mid-October peak. Additionally, despite broad support for Lion’s Den and their repeated calls for wider protests and resistance, there has been little change in activity.

Missile, Drone, and Airstrikes

With the number of missile attacks in decline and the IAF bombing campaign transitioning mostly to close air support missions, we are closing this section.

Middle East Region and Theaterwide

Since October 12, US. bases and support nodes in the Middle East have been attacked at least 57 times. Iranian-backed militants attacked the U.S. Mission Support Site Euphrates in eastern Syria, with officials reporting the rockets landed 500 meters from the base. The Iranian-backed Islamic Resistance in Iraq took responsibility for a drone strike on the U.S. military base at the al-Omar Oil Field in eastern Syria.. The attacks have wounded over 50 American servicemembers, ranging from minor injuries to at least one traumatic brain injury. November 12 reports of U.S. fatalities at Conco Fields in Syria were unfounded.

U.S. defense officials confirmed that in October, a drone struck a U.S. barracks at Al-Harir Air Base in Iraq but failed to detonate. Had it exploded, there would have been “several casualties.”

Iran-backed Houthi Rebels based in Yemen launched another intermediate-range ballistic missile at Israel on November 14, which was intercepted by the Arrow Aerial Defense System. The IDF did not indicate if the interception happened outside Earth’s atmosphere. Houthi leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi said that his forces were monitoring Israeli shipping in the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab Straits and were prepared to attack civilian shipping, including vessels not owned by or flying the Israeli flag but representing Israeli interests.

War Crimes and Human Rights

As an editorial policy, we are referring to Hamas fighters as militants and not terrorists. New intelligence indicates the attack on October 7 was conducted by the equivalent of a brigade in size and demonstrated previously unseen asymmetrical warfare tactics that included combined arms that go beyond a terrorist attack. Further, in calling Hamas terrorists, there is less accountability for the command and control structures, which ordered what can be described as an invasion.

After weeks of political posturing by Russia and the United States in the U.N. Security Council, a resolution calling for “humanitarian pauses” was passed. The resolution passed 12-0-3, with the United States, Britain, and Russia abstaining. The resolution calls for humanitarian pauses and corridors throughout the Gaza Strip for a “sufficient number of days” for unhindered access by the U.N., Red Cross, and other aid groups to get water, electricity, fuel, food, and medical supplies to all those in need. It says the pauses should also allow for the repair of essential infrastructure and enable urgent rescue and recovery efforts.

Editor’s Note: At the time of publication, the full unedited text of the resolution was not available on the U.N. website, so we are forced to rely upon the U.N.-provided summary.

The U.S. and U.K. abstained because the resolution did not include language condemning the October 7 invasion of Israel and did not include language that Israel has the right of self-defense. Russia abstained because the measure did not include language for a ceasefire.

The measure did not mention the Hamas attacks of October 7 nor “demanded” humanitarian pauses. Russia attempted to add an amendment that would lead to a permanent ceasefire, which was rejected 1-5-9. The nine abstentions came after it was clear the amendment would not receive support from a two-thirds majority. As we have previously assessed, Russia has a deeper political motivation in its ongoing war against Ukraine to add language in support of a durable ceasefire.

Israel’s Deputy Permanent Representative, Brett Jonathan Miller, called the measure “detached from reality” for making no mention of the October 7 attacks, adding that all hostilities would end “should Hamas choose to lay down their arms, turn themselves in, and handover the hostages unscathed.”

Riyad Mansour, Permanent Observer of the observer State of Palestine, also condemned the measure for not including a permanent ceasefire, stating, “This madness must be brought to an end.”

While the resolution is legally binding, historically, combatants in other conflicts have ignored prior measures. At the time of publication, the Foreign Ministry of Israel said there would be no extended humanitarian pauses until Hamas releases all 239 hostages.

Editor’s Note: On the surface, no one is happy with Resolution 2712, which indicates that this is a good resolution under the circumstances. Wartime negotiations should not be viewed as zero-sum games with winners and losers.

Ninety-one trucks carrying humanitarian aid traveled through the Rafah Gate on the Egypt-Gaza border, close to the target number of 100, which is 25% of pre-war traffic into the Gaza Strip through all border checkpoints. Five hundred and eighty-seven foreign nationals and dual passport holders exited the Gaza Strip, and 15 medics entered. Thirty-seven sick or wounded people and twenty of their guardians also exited Gaza. It was not clarified if this included any of the 32 infants at Al-Shifa Hospital that the IDF said would be evacuated.

The U.N. released a statement reminding both combatants of their obligations under International Humanitarian Law when conducting combat operations near hospitals. “Hospitals and medical personnel are specifically protected under international humanitarian law (IHL), and all parties to the conflict must ensure their protection. Hospitals must not be used to shield military objectives from attack. Any military operation around or within hospitals must take steps to spare and protect the patients, medical staff, and other civilians. All feasible precautions must be taken, including effective warnings, which consider the ability of patients, medical staff , and other civilians to evacuate safely.”

The only hospital capable of accepting new patients in northern Gaza is reportedly the Al-Ahli Hospital. The U.N. reported the 88-bed facility was serving more than 500 patients. Al-Ahli is the same hospital that the Ministry of Health of Gaza claimed was bombed on October 17, alleging that between 300 to 800 were killed at various times, then refusing to provide an exact number. The incident sparked an international uproar. On October 19, the Episcopal Church of Jerusalem, which operates the facility, reported that the hospital remained operational. Our analysts concluded that the most likely explanation for the October 17 blast was a rocket fired by Hamas or other Palestinian-aligned militias failed in flight and landed in a parking lot adjacent to the main hospital building, with the remaining fuel exploding, setting cars and other combustibles on fire.

Casualties

We no longer track Israeli or Palestinian casualty numbers due to serious questions about the veracity of reports from both combatants.

Rest of World: There were updates three days ago on the number of foreign nationals listed as dead, missing, or confirmed as hostages, with 39 nations reporting 258 of their citizens were killed. There has been no update from any foreign ministry in the last three days.

• Argentina - 9 dead, 21 unaccounted
• Australia - 1 dead
• Austria - 4 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Azerbaijan - 3 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Belarus - 3 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Belgium – 2 dead
• Brazil - 3 dead
• Cambodia - 1 dead
• Canada - 6 dead, 2 unaccounted
• Chile - 4 dead, 1 unaccounted
• China - 5 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Columbia – 1 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Estonia – 1 dead
• France - 39 dead, 9 hostages
• Germany – 10 dead, “double-digit number of hostages”
• Honduras – 1 dead
• Hungary – 2 hostages
• India – 2 killed, 4 unaccounted
• Ireland - 1 dead
• Italy – 3 dead, 1 hostage
• Kazakhstan – 2 dead
• Mexico - 2 hostages
• Moldova – 1 dead
• Nepal - 10 dead, 5 hostages
• The Netherlands – 1 dead, 1 hostage
• Paraguay - 2 unaccounted
• Peru - 3 dead, 4 unaccounted
• Philippines - 4 dead, 2 unaccounted
• Poland – 1 dead
• Portugal - 4 dead, 4 unaccounted
• Romania – 4 dead*, 6 hostages
• Russia - 23 dead, 8 hostages
• South Africa – 2 dead
• Spain - 1 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Sri Lanka – 1 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Switzerland – 1 dead
• Tanzania - 2 unaccounted
• Thailand - 32 dead (decrease), 18 hostages
• Türkiye - 1 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Ukraine - 21 dead, 1 missing (decrease)
• United Kingdom – 12 dead, 5 unaccounted
• United States - 34 dead, 1 unaccounted, 12 hostages
• Uzbekistan – 3 dead, 4 unaccounted

Israel lowered the estimated number of people killed in the October 7 attacks from 1,400 to 1,200, citing the identification of body parts belonging to the same person, some since identified remains belonging to Hamas militants, and the ongoing forensic process of the remaining badly mutilated and partial remains.

Israeli-Hamas Politics

Israeli Opposition Leader Yair Lapid became the highest-level official calling for the immediate removal of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and for him to be replaced by another member of the majority Likud Party. During an interview, Lapid says the public has lost faith in Netanyahu and “we can’t run an extended [military] operation with a prime minister we do not have faith in.”

Lapid said that if Netanyahu were replaced, the Yesh Atid Party would join the coalition government. A representative of the Likud Party called Lapid’s declaration “sad and embarrassing” and accused him of playing politics “in a time of war.”

Earlier, Merav Michaeli, leader of the Labor Party (of Israel for our U.K. readers), also called for the ouster of Netanyahu.

Faith in the Israeli government and Netanyahu is at near-record lows, with a recent poll indicating 76% of Israelis agreeing with the statement that the Prime Minister should resign. Israel is a Parliamentary Democracy, with the Likud Party holding 32 of 120 seats in the Knesset. Opposition party members only hold 44 seats despite the broad lack of popularity for Netanyahu.

Geopolitics

There weren’t any significant developments. See the War Crimes and Human Rights section for information about the United Nations Security Council.