Israel-Hamas War SITREP for 29 OCT 2023 - Fury at Netanyahu Comes From All Directions

Action Report

The information space remains highly problematic, with an extreme amount of disinformation being spread by the proxies of both combatants. Ground fighting continues to be local skirmishes and the neutralization of squad-sized sabotage and reconnaissance teams. It is difficult to ascertain where the truth lies between all the claims in an environment where the ground fighting is somewhere between terrorist and police actions and actual combat between two belligerents. Unless we state, “we were able to independently verify the claim,” or provide three unique sources in the report, the claims should be considered “unverified.” Otherwise, every third sentence would be, “We cannot independently verify the claim.”

Gaza Strip and Southern and Central Israel

Ground fighting intensified within and on the edge of the Gaza Strip, with Israeli forces penetrating as far as 3 kilometers in depth along the coast and Hamas ambushing Israeli troops from a tunnel just inside the Gaza Strip.

Hamas militants ambushed IDF forces near the Erez border crossing, infiltrating the area through their tunnel network, supported by mortars and rockets providing suppressive fire. Hamas-aligned news agencies reported that several Israeli soldiers were killed, while the IDF reported that it had killed several Hamas militants. Later, the IDF reported two were wounded in fighting overnight in the northern part of the Gaza Strip but didn’t specify where.

Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad reported they attacked IDF troops near Beit Lahia Yasin, al Amiriya, and Beit Lahia. We cannot independently verify the claims. A geolocated video showed the IDF 📺 occupying a vacation chalet 3 kilometers south of As-Siafa and 3.25 kilometers from the Israel-Gaza border wall. The IDF has continued to execute raids and not maintain an occupation of any Gaza Strip territory. In our assessment, this was an attempt to draw out Hamas militants and to provide a “picture report.” The IAF provided close air support and claimed to have destroyed an antitank firebase during the IDF incursion. Israeli sources reported there was fighting on the beach south of Gaza, near Zikim, which likely occurred when the IDF was advancing past Beit Lahia or withdrawing after completing their raid.

At Beit Hanoun, the IDF released a video showing 📺 two companies of armor preparing to enter the Gaza Strip and then moving in convoy. Palestinian sources claimed they destroyed two Merkava main battle tanks without evidence.

Supporting Palestinian reports that air attacks continue to intensify, the IDF reported it carried out 450 airstrikes on October 29.

Telephone and Internet access continued to return to the Gaza Strip. A journalist with the French news agency AFP reported that phone and Internet were restored in their area at 04:00 hours local time.

The United States newspaper Washington Post reported that the U.S. pressured Israel to restore the Internet connection. An unnamed U.S. official reportedly said, “We made it clear that it had to be turned back on.” The report in the Washington Post runs counter to Gaza’s leading ISP that wrote on Facebook that airstrikes damaged equipment in Gaza, causing the October 27 outage, and was not due to external interference.

United Nations 200 Blue Line Border between Israel and Lebanon and the Golan Heights

There were fewer attacks by Lebanese Hezbollah and Iranian-backed militants, with attacks limited to rocket barrages targeting civilian and military targets. The IAF responded with artillery and airstrikes, targeting several locations on the Lebanon border. The reduced attacks run contrary to multiple threats by Iranian officials and their proxies to expand the war against Israel if ground attacks started in the Gaza Strip.

The West Bank

There was no change in the number of clashes between Palestinian militants and aligned terror groups and protests within the West Bank despite a significant uptick in settler violence. There were approximately ten clashes between the IDF and Palestinians, with the largest in Jenin, which is increasingly becoming a flashpoint. Despite calls from Lion’s Den and Hamas for mass protests, residents are not heeding the call. There were large demonstrations in Tulkarm, Bethlehem, Jenin, and Nablus.

The Health Ministry of the Palestinian Authority reported three Palestinians were killed in clashes with the IDF in the settlements of Askar, Bayt Rima, and Tammun. The IDF reported that 23 people were detained, including four people allegedly with Hamas.

Violence against Palestinians by Israeli settlers is rapidly expanding, turning the West Bank into a powder keg. The co-director of the Ofek Israeli Center for Public Affairs, Yehuda Shaul, reported that the Palestinian residents of A’nizan and Khirbet Zanuta have packed their belongings and left due to harassment from Israeli settlers. Shaul called it a “forcible transfer.”

The growing violence has provided a vector for Israel’s allies, which are growing increasingly weary of Tel Aviv, to criticize Prime Minister of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu and his administration. White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan calls the growing violence “totally unacceptable” during an interview on U.S. news agency CNN and said Netanyahu “has a responsibility to rein in the settlers…This is an ongoing challenge. We expect, over time, to see the Israeli government step up on this. We expect accountability for extremist settlers who engage in this kind of violence.”

The Foreign Ministry of France condemned the “unacceptable” Israeli settler attacks on Palestinians in the West Bank in a written statement. “France strongly condemns the settler attacks that have led to the deaths of several Palestinian civilians over the past few days in Qusra and Sawiya, as well as the forced departure of several communities.”

The director of Shin Bet, Ronen Bar, also warned the Israeli War Cabinet the agency’s “fears about an eruption” of violence in the West Bank if Israeli settlers aren’t brought under control. “The specific warning notes a rise in violence by settlers [and] incidents between settlers and Palestinians that result in the deaths of Palestinians.” The internal report, according to Israel’s Channel 12, also warned that the U.S. and European Union are at a “boiling point” over Tel Aviv’s inaction. “These incidents are likely to set the area alight and harm the war effort against Hamas.

The IDF took far-right nationalist and settlement advocate Ariel Danino into “administrative detention” for four months under the authority of Minister of Defense of Israel Yoav Gallant. The order cited “a reasonable foundation to assume that state security/public security requires” his arrest. Danino was arrested in an illegal West Bank settlement near Yitzhar by border police and Shin Bet agents. Administrative detention is typically used for terror suspects, with up to 1,000 Palestinians held in custody under the protocol. It is rarely used to hold Israelis and is usually used when authorities have specific intelligence of an impending terrorist attack but not enough evidence to support a court-ordered warrant.

Missile, Drone, and Airstrikes on Israel

In southern and central Israel, Hamas and aligned militant and terror organizations launched rockets at Nir Oz, Nirim, Nahal Oz, Magen, Tel Aviv, Herzliya, Ra’anana, Holon, Hod Hasharon, and Sderot. Missile debris landed on school grounds in Ramat Hasharon, with students in a bomb shelter at the time of the impact.

In northern Israel, Lebanese Hezbollah and Iran-backed militias launched rockets at Malkia, Arab al-Aramshe, Kiryat Shmona, Tuba-Zangariyye, Rosh Pina, Ayelet Hashahar, Hatzor Haglilit, Haifa, and the Mount Dov region. A rocket struck Kiryat Shmona, destroying a home and causing a large fire.

Middle East Region and Theaterwide

The Iranian-backed Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed they attacked U.S. forces stationed at Al Shaddadi in Syria with two kamikaze drones and alleged both hit their targets. The U.S. Department of Defense did not provide comment. Iranian-backed militants attacked U.S. troops near the Omar Oil Field in Syria with rockets, claiming it was in retaliation for October 26 U.S. strikes against Iranian Revolution Guard bases in Syria.

During an interview on the Qatar-based Al Jazeera, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi tried to rally support among the Axis of Resistance, which has largely remained on the sidelines since October 8. Raisi labeled the Israeli offensive as a “great failure” and accused the U.S. of crossing their established red lines. However, after two weeks of threats of direct action, Raisi muted the messaging, saying it could “force everyone to take action” unless Israeli airstrikes end.

U.S. National Security Adviser Sullivan also told CNN that President Joe Biden would speak with Netanyahu “and is going to stress the need for the IDF to make every possible effort to distinguish between terrorists and Palestinian civilians during the ground operation in Gaza. There have been deaths of thousands of Palestinian civilians in this conflict, and that is an absolute tragedy. Those people did not deserve to die. Those people deserve to live lives of peace and safety and dignity.”

This aligns with our sources, who told us that Washington is reaching a breaking point with the Netanyahu administration and the way it is conducting its war against Hamas. Sullivan did add that Hamas uses civilians as human shields but stressed that it “does not lessen Israel’s responsibility under international law to distinguish between terrorists and civilians and to protect the lives of innocent people who are the overwhelming majority of people in Gaza.”

The IDF reported that up to ten rockets were fired from Syria into northern Israel, with the barrage landing in undeveloped areas of the Golan Heights. Several hours later, the IAF responded with airstrikes on the Iranian-backed militant firebases.

War Crimes and Human Rights

As an editorial policy, we are referring to Hamas fighters as militants and not terrorists. New intelligence indicates the attack on October 7 was conducted by the equivalent of a brigade in size and demonstrated previously unseen asymmetrical warfare tactics that included combined arms that go beyond a terrorist attack. Further, in calling Hamas terrorists, there is less accountability for the command and control structures, which ordered what can be described as an invasion.

The prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC), Karim A.A. Khan, said that the organization was conducting an “active investigation” into the October 7 Hamas massacres and Israel’s military response in both Gaza and the West Bank. “We have active investigations ongoing in relation to the crimes allegedly committed in Israel on 7th October, and also in relation to Gaza and the West Bank, and our jurisdiction goes back to 2014,” speaking in Egypt at the Rafah border crossing.

“This is a moment of objectivity, a moment of quiet reflection, and it needs to be a moment in which the international community and the international architecture built on the rubble of World War II, the terrible gas chambers and the Holocaust, the razing of cities throughout Europe, [which] was meant to create institutions that would ensure never again would we see abominations where people could be targeted for their race, religion, culture, where they come from or what passport they hold. Those promises need to be fulfilled.”

IDF spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari increased the number of known hostages held by Hamas and other militant and terror groups to 239, adding that 40 people are still considered missing.

In the Askar refugee camp near the West Bank settlement of Nablus, the IDF demolished the home of Hassan Qatnani. Qatnani and three others murdered Lucy Dee, 48, and her daughters Maia, 20, and Rina, 15, on April 7 in an unprovoked ambush. The IDF has a policy of destroying the homes of convicted terrorists, a policy we consider collective punishment for other occupants or heirs to the property.

U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said the situation in Gaza is rapidly declining. “The situation in Gaza is growing more desperate by the hour. I regret that instead of a critically needed humanitarian pause, supported by the international community, Israel has intensified its military operations.”

While talking with Prime Minister Netanyahu, President Biden called for an “immediate and significant increase” in humanitarian aid.

Israeli officials reported they opened a second freshwater pipeline into the Gaza Strip, providing 28.5 million liters per day. Most of Gaza’s water comes from desalination plants as climate change an almost doubling of Gaza’s population, and decades of overuse caused saltwater intrusion into the aquifer that used to supply Gaza.

UNWRA reported that thousands of people looted humanitarian aid warehouses to take food and other “basic survival items,” with social order breaking apart. Agency Director Thomas White said, “People are scared, frustrated, and desperate.”

No trucks with humanitarian aid were permitted to enter the Gaza Strip.

A spokesperson for the Palestinian Red Crescent claimed Al-Quds Hospital in Gaza City received two calls from Israeli authorities demanding immediate evacuation. In a brief statement, the Red Crescent said it was a “clear and direct threat that the hospital must be evacuated at once. Otherwise, PRCS holds full responsibility for the lives of everyone inside the hospital.” The spokesperson for the Red Crescent, Nebal Farsakh, claimed that 12,000 people are currently sheltering in the hospital and that the intensive care departments are mostly filled with children. “Evacuating them would be killing them.”

It is worth noting that the Red Crescent has made numerous similar claims previously, with some found to be untrue.

Later in the day, the PRCS claimed that the IAF had bombed “around” the hospital. “The Israeli army deliberately continues to launch rockets directly near Al-Quds hospital with the aim of forcing medical staff, displaced individuals, and patients to evacuate the hospital. This has caused significant damage to hospital departments and exposed residents and patients to suffocation.”

The Prime Minister of Norway, Jonas Gahr Store, said Israel’s military response had exceeded the point of disproportionality. “International law stipulates that [the response] must be proportionate. Civilians must be taken into account, and humanitarian law is very clear on this. I think this limit has been largely exceeded…Almost half of the thousands of people killed are children…Israel has the right to defend itself, and I recognize that it is very difficult to defend against attacks from an area as densely populated as Gaza.”

National Security Adviser repeated his allegation that Hamas militants are preventing foreign nationals from leaving the Gaza Strip through the Rafah Gate, making them defacto hostages. Sullivan said that Egypt and Israel have agreed on the exit of foreign passport holders, but Hamas has not agreed to terms. Last week, U.S. passport holders claimed that Hamas gunmen blocked their path on the Gaza side of the Rafah border crossing after the U.S. State Department had advised them that their exit had been approved.

Casualties

We no longer track Israeli or Palestinian casualty numbers due to serious questions about the veracity of reports from both combatants.

Rest of World: There were no updates on the number of foreign nationals listed as dead, missing, or confirmed as hostages, with 39 nations reporting 249 of their citizens were killed:

• Argentina - 9 dead, 21 unaccounted
• Australia - 1 dead
• Austria - 4 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Azerbaijan - 3 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Belarus - 3 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Belgium – 2 dead
• Brazil - 3 dead
• Cambodia - 1 dead
• Canada - 6 dead, 2 unaccounted
• Chile - 4 dead, 1 unaccounted
• China - 5 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Columbia – 1 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Estonia – 1 dead
• France - 35 dead, 9 hostages
• Germany – 4 dead, 12 hostages
• Honduras – 1 dead
• Hungary – 2 hostages
• India – 2 killed, 4 unaccounted
• Ireland - 1 dead
• Italy – 3 dead, 1 hostage
• Kazakhstan – 2 dead
• Mexico - 2 hostages
• Moldova – 1 dead
• Nepal - 10 dead, 5 hostages
• The Netherlands – 1 dead, 1 hostage
• Paraguay - 2 unaccounted
• Peru - 3 dead, 4 unaccounted
• Philippines - 4 dead, 2 unaccounted
• Poland – 1 dead
• Portugal - 4 dead, 4 unaccounted
• Romania – 4 dead*, 2 hostages
• Russia - 23 dead, 6 hostages
• South Africa – 2 dead
• Spain - 1 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Sri Lanka – 1 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Switzerland – 1 dead
• Tanzania - 2 unaccounted
• Thailand - 33 dead, 18 hostages (decrease)
• Türkiye - 1 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Ukraine - 21 dead, 7 missing
• United Kingdom – 12 dead, 5 unaccounted
• United States - 34 dead, 1 unaccounted, 12 hostages
• Uzbekistan – 3 dead, 4 unaccounted

Israeli Politics

After his first press conference since October 7, Prime Minister Netanyahu caused a political firestorm after a late-night tweet, shifting responsibility for the October 7 massacres to everyone but himself. “Under no circumstances and at no stage was Prime Minister Netanyahu warned of war intentions on the part of Hamas. On the contrary, the assessment of the entire security echelon, including the head of military intelligence and the head of Shin Bet, was that Hamas was deterred and was seeking an arrangement.”

To say it didn’t go over well is an understatement.

National Unity chairman Benny Gantz demanded Netanyahu retract his statement. “This morning in particular, I want to back and support all the security forces and IDF soldiers, including the IDF chief of staff, the head of military intelligence, the head of the Shin Bet. When we are at war, leadership needs to be responsible, to decide to do the right things and support the forces in a way in which they can carry out what we demand of them. Any other action or comment harms the resilience of the people and its forces. The prime minister must retract his comments from yesterday and stop dealing with this issue.”

Opposition Leader Yair Lapid responded on X, also known as Twitter, “While IDF soldiers and commanders are fighting valiantly against Hamas and Hezbollah, he is trying to blame them instead of backing them up. Such attempts to evade responsibility and place the blame on the security establishment weakens [sic] the IDF while it is fighting Israel’s enemies. Netanyahu must apologize for his words.”

Deleting the tweet didn’t stop the fire. Controversial National Security Minister for Israel and far-right nationalist Itamar Ben Gvir wrote, “The problem isn’t specific warnings, but rather the entire mistaken concept. The policy of containment, the imaginary deterrence, and buying temporary quiet for an exorbitant price.”

During his press briefing, IDF Spokesman Hagari was asked about Netanyahu blaming the defense forces and responded, “I will not answer that question. We are now in a war and are focused on it.”

As the controversy continued to spiral, Netanyahu was forced to apologize. “I was wrong. The things I said following the press conference should not have been said and I apologize for that. I give full backing to all the heads of the security services. I am sending strength to the chief of staff and the commanders and soldiers of the IDF who are on the frontlines and fighting for our home.”

The CEO of Mobileye, Amnon Shashua, wrote an op-ed calling for the removal of Netanyahu, saying his administration is guilty of “failures, dissonance and incompetence…We must cut our losses and do it quickly. The only solution to the current situation in Israel is to replace the government, and it needs to happen immediately.”

Noam Tibon, the retired general who became internationally famous for driving to Kibbutz Nahal Oz on the morning of October 7 and personally led rescue efforts and counterterror activity, also called for Netanyahu to resign. “Netanyahu’s continued presence as prime minister harms the war against Hamas,” comparing the prime minister to Neville Chamberlain. “The only one who has not taken responsibility is Benjamin Netanyahu, and now he is shooting from inside the APC.”

This aligns with our numerous assessments that Netanyahu and his inner circle is the architect and personally responsible for the internal, external, and geopolitical disaster facing Israel.

Geopolitics

The United Nations Security Council plans to meet on Monday to discuss the war between Israel and Hamas, according to Reuters-Thompson.

The Prime Minister’s Office and the Foreign Ministry of Israel said they were following the situation in Dagestan, where rioters were hunting for Jews and Israeli passport holders, saying, “Israel takes a grave view of attempts to harm Israeli citizens and Jews anywhere.”

Editor’s Note: Compared to Israel’s diplomatic response to the U.N. and other nations, one could get the impression that Netanyahu is a card-carrying member of the Vladimir Putin Club.

President Biden spoke with Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi about accelerating the flow of humanitarian aid into the Gaza Strip. In a readout provided by the White House, it stated, “The two leaders committed to the significant acceleration and increase of assistance flowing into Gaza beginning today and then continuously. They also discussed the importance of protecting civilian lives, respect for international humanitarian law, and ensuring that Palestinians in Gaza are not displaced to Egypt or any other nation.” The White House also made it explicitly clear that it aligns with Egypt’s rejection of taking refugees from Gaza, which has the potential to turn into permanent resettlement.

X owner Elon Musk spoke with the head of Israel’s Shin Bet security agency, Ronen Bar, to try and assure him that Starlink terminals would only be provided to recognized aid organizations. Musk claimed he would double-check with Israeli and American security officials before enabling any connections.