Flash Report 07 OCT 2023 - 15:30 PDT - Israel-Hamas War Update 3

Woke up about an hour ago, and here is what we know.

Updated - editing artifacts fixed (don't ever write in the Patreon client to save time)

Casualties

Israel: Local officials 300 confirmed dead, over 1,500 wounded, and an unknown number of civilian hostages and POWs. Israeli officials state it is "dozens," but in our assessment, it is more than likely in the hundreds. The Red Cross/Red Crescent has made no statement to verify claims. The town of Netiv HaAsara confirmed that 15 civilians were killed.

Hamas/Gaza: Local officials claim 296 killed and 1,596 wounded. The Red Cross/Red Crescent has verified six killed and 296 wounded.

Prisoners/Hostages: At least one person has been confirmed to be a German national through friends and family and social intelligence. Ukraine is investigating reports of two Ukrainians taken hostage and another report that one person was killed. Nepal reported that Hamas militants wounded 11 agricultural students, two seriously, and took hostages. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Nepal said the students went to a bomb shelter when the farm was attacked, and Hamas took over the building.

There have been no official statements from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs/State Department from other nations on dead, wounded, or missing citizens.

The Battlefront

Hamas militants had captured an area larger than the Gaza Strip, but advances have been stopped. The advanced units could not consolidate their positions, and an area that is roughly the size of the Gaza Strip is held with the deepest penetration to Ein HaBsor and capturing part of the 232 Highway (Israeli GLOC). We know you want a map, and we're debating on how deep we will cover this - we're thin as it is. Right now, the answer to that is "no."

Reporter Trey Yingst said things are "very bad," and there were things he couldn't report due to operational security.

The Israeli settlement of Re'im has been liberated after heavy fighting. Hamas militants hold Be'eri and the western parts of Sderot and Ein HaBsor and up to 10 more smaller towns and kibbutzs. NASA FIRMS suggests there is major fighting as far north as Ashkelon.

At the time of publication, there were reports that the IDF had liberated Be'eri, but we cannot confirm the reports.

The following settlements are contested or under Hamas control - Kerem Shalom, Holit, Sufa, Nir Oz, Nrim, Ein HaShlosha, Kisfim, Nahal Oz, Mefalsim, Givat Kobi, Erez, Netiv HaAsara, and possibly Zikim. Fighting is described as house-to-house, with some Hamas militants holding civilians as hostages. We assess claims by Israeli officials that most areas have been cleared of militants as false.

Israel has 31 battalions deployed in the region and is mobilizing four divisions. Based on the videos and photos we've seen, we feel confident in declaring one armored battalion as combat destroyed and one mechanized infantry battalion as combat ineffective. This is due to equipment losses, not personnel.

Israeli officials have confirmed that Colonel Jonathan Steinberg, commander of the Nahal Infantry Brigade, was killed in action in Shomira.

Side Bar: It is one thing to capture tanks, APCs, and infantry fighting vehicles. It is a whole different challenge to operate that equipment effectively. A number of M113 armored personnel carriers were also captured and could be pressed into service. Most of the captured equipment observed being put to use by Hamas has been limited to infantry mobility vehicles.

The Israeli Defense Forces have started air strikes on Gaza, with Palestinian officials reporting there is "no-knock." In the past, Israel would cause a concussion to shake a building, warning it is about to be hit. There are multiple reports that the IDF has entered parts of Gaza.

In Gaza, the population density is 6,000 people per square kilometer, and Hamas, Hezbollah, and other organizations have a decades-long history of using civilians as human shields and using schools, mosques, and civilian infrastructure as command posts, barracks, ammunition depots, and firebases. Gaza also has an extensive tunnel and bunker network that has been built for decades.

Rocket attacks were continuing across Israel, with the intensity stretching air defense capabilities to their limits.

We maintain our assessment that Hamas is almost certainly receiving aid from military advisors and the participation of troops from a third-party nation. The scope of the operation, a carefully orchestrated disinformation campaign that accompanied the attacks, and the amount of troops and weapons involved point to months of preparation.

The Political Response

Nothing surprising from the international community. Supporters of Palestine and Hamas blame Israel for the start of the war and decades of repression in the Palestinian territories. Middle Eastern nations more closely aligned with the United States and, to a lesser extent, Saudi Arabia, have called for de-escalation.

Egyptian officials have used confusing language - hinting they would see military intervention within Gaza as an act of war and threatened intervention. However, Egypt has kept its border closed with the Gaza Strip and has shown no interest in accepting Palestinian refugees.

Within the United States, let's just say the response has been heavily politicized and leave it at that. Support for Israel has been universal despite the mud-slinging, with the White House declaring it was prepared to offer "all means of support."

Most of Europe has openly declared full support for Israel.

The Kremlin is mostly blaming the United States and the West while calling for calm.

Addressing Two Pieces of Misinformation and Potential U.S. Involvement

The truth matters, and there are two pieces of misinformation that need to be addressed.

Claim: The release of $6 billion in Iranian oil money to free five U.S. hostages funded Hamas and today's war.

Facts: Not one penny of that money has been transferred to Iran, and the money did not come from the U.S. treasury. The $6 billion was seized from Iranian oil sales and is sitting in South Korean banks - as it has the whole time. The money is in South Korea because the original transactions were in won, and no one wanted/wants to convert the money. The money was never going to be released to Iran as a cash benefit. Not a single won has been transferred.

Claim: Weapons meant for Ukraine are being used by Hamas militants.

Facts: Hamas militants that have been killed or captured have been armed with Iranian munitions and weapons, including Iranian knock-offs (copies) of the M-16. Other videos show Hamas using internally developed weapons, including a new short-range MLRS system and Soviet-era weapons. On the contrary, the United States has confiscated multiple Iranian weapon shipments to Yemen and distributed the material to Ukrainian forces.

Yes. The United States has a mutual protection pact with Israel since 1952. We don't see U.S. military intervention happening. There are U.S. military assets and personnel in Israel beyond embassy security provided by the U.S. Marine Corps. No U.S. personnel or military assets are in danger.

Israeli Government

Embattled Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is facing multiple criminal investigations for corruption, has said he was willing to form an emergency coalition government with Yair Lapid and Benny Gantz. The last time such a move was made was in 1967 during the Six-Day War. Gantz signaled he was open to the formation, while Lapid said he was also supportive but called for the removal of at least far-right cabinet ministers.

Intelligence Failure

Western intelligence is calling today's events Israel's 9/11 and questioning how the vaunted Israeli intelligence missed this so badly. One analyst on our team - in a hot take - likened this to the Tet Offensive in Vietnam.

What does Hamas Want

In a statement, Hamas defined victory as the re-establishment of the 1967 borders, the return of certain holy sites, including the Al-Aqsa Mosque, and East Jerusalem as the capital. They also called for statehood recognition.

Hussam Badran, a member of the political bureau of Hamas, called Operation Al-Aqsa a "deluge" and said that, unlike prior "conflicts," the violence won't stop until Israel leaves "our occupied lands."

He did not call for mediation from Middle Eastern nations but for political and military support.

Israel's Coming Response

Significant troop movements have been shared on social media, including armor and helicopters. This is one area where we know a little bit more that we can't share - but the news is not good. Currently, 80,000 reservists have been activated, and Israeli officials are expecting a multifront war that will last for weeks. There is significant belief that Hezbollah will also attack in force.

Israeli officials stated that Operation Iron Swords has already started, and troops will advance into Gaza. We're trying to keep with facts as our ability to provide meaningful analysis is limited, but based on history, we do not expect Israeli forces to be restrained. Additionally, based on history, Israel has almost never caved to pressure to make concessions to release hostages. On the contrary, Israel has consistently used special operations to free hostages.

And that's what we know.