Flash Report 28 SEP 2023 - 12:45 PDT - Russian Troops Have a Certain VBIED

They're back! Russian troops are using VBIEDs - Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Devices - again.

The latest victim was a T-62 tank using the tactic of putting it on a trajectory and having the driver jump out. The tank hit a mine, threw its track, drove in circles, hit another mine, and harmlessly blew up in the middle of a field.

The video will be in the SITREP.

VBIEDs are an asymmetrical warfare weapon. You turn a vehicle into a bomb when you are outmatched in firepower, whether that be artillery, engineering equipment, close air support, or other heavy weapons.

The first time we saw Russian troops using VIBEDs was in late February 2023 in the Kreminna area, as the winter offensive was coming to an end. Russia then switched to mobile defense and then defense. At the time, there were theaterwide complaints about ammunition shortages.

When we saw VIBEDs being used in June, they were used by the 54th Chechen Akhmat Brigade in the Marinka area of operation (mostly). As I learn more, you learn more, and Chechens using VBIEDs makes sense in hindsight. Chechen forces were not allowed to be equipped with heavy weapons until July of this year. No main battle tanks, self-propelled howitzers, or infantry fighting vehicles.  They're Rosgvardiya - OMON - SOBR. Chechen Akhmat, "special forces" is just a name.

They can be supported by heavy weapons; their dismounts can be in an infantry fighting vehicle operated by the Russian army or a helicopter flown by the VKS. They can request artillery support, work with a tank brigade for armor support, and ask for close air support. In the Marinka area, knowing the depth of corruption of the 1st Army Corps, it is likely at Pobjeda in June 2023, they used VBIEDs in an attempt to break through Ukrainian defenses because they didn't have a choice. We've lost count of how many reports have come from Russian units making appeals to be withdrawn from fighting due to a lack of support from the leadership of the 1st Army Corps, and Igor Strelkov Girkin is sitting in a prison cell in part because he kept calling out the corruption.

What happened at Marinka? There weren't any TikTok-grade videos, that's for sure. The only video we ever found showed a squad of Chechen troops hiding behind a wall taking heavy fire, and they didn't look happy about having to really fight. The 54th withdrew in a combat ineffective state and was redeployed to Klishchiivka. There, they pretended to fight until they couldn't make TikTok videos anymore, became combat destroyed, and withdrew, possibly against orders. Russian forces haven't been able to advance at Marinka, and they lost control of Klishchiivka.

It is important to temper expectations. The use of a VBIED in one area doesn't mean there is a systemic logistics failure coming or the Russian military is ready to collapse. It only means that in one operational area, there is a firepower disadvantage, and a decision was made to use asymmetrical warfare tactics. Through 2023, when Russian VBIEDs appeared, Ukrainian forces either gained territory (marginally at Pobjeda) or Russian efforts to advance ended (Kreminna and Marinka).