Supply and Demand

Supply

Simplified, supply means “input on the Transfer market”. This input can be due to multiple reasons, the most common ones are Rewards, Weekend League sell-off, and Lightning Rounds. 

Every card that is in packs has the highest supply, there are rarity differences between cards based on rating and card type, but it's still the most supplied category on the FUT Transfer Market.

It's very common to say “there’s no supply for Gold Card Mbappe because he is in the current TOTW”, but that’s not the whole story. As we know, if a card gets a special card, his Gold version goes out of packs and people can’t pack the Gold Version anymore which means his supply through packs stops. But there is still a supply for Mbappe Gold due to people having him in the club and listing him on the market.  

That’s a very common mistake as supply never stops completely, it just gets lower than usual. Even if a card is extinct, there could still be supply just hidden behind the extinction as the demand could deny any card to stay on the market for longer than a minute. 

We will still use some terms that are not correct exactly but it simplifies the idea and makes it easier for us to trade around the market. 

Demand

Simplified, demand means “output on the transfer market” or how much people are willing to buy a card if you want to be correct. 

Demand can come from squad building, SBCs, traders, or general hype. Finding the right source of demand is one of the biggest parts of trading and important to know the market better. As always, I will try to cover this information in the daily update but if you are struggling to find the reason for demand on a specific case, feel free to DM me and we can look through it together. 

Balance

The balance between supply and demand determines the price of every FUT card on the market. 

A basic rule to remember:

Higher Supply than Demand = Lower prices

Higher Demand than Supply = Higher prices

That’s the most fundamental tip I can give you and you can cover 90% of the trading moves if you truly understand this idea and use it to your advantage. Its also important to mention that its impossible to exactly know every demand and every supply for a card, but ultimately it all comes down to this concept. 

Out of Packs

As said above, if a card gets a Special Card, the supply for the Gold Version through packs stops which leads to less supply and a general trend of rising prices. 

The same goes the other way, Special Cards that go out of packs are also known to rise over time as the supply through packs stops too. However, the supply for the Gold Version continues again. 

But it's important to know that even if a card is out of packs, it's not immune to any price drops. A market crash can still hit cards that aren’t in packs and make them drop in price due to people selling cards from their club -> increasing supply while lowering the demand -> decreasing prices. 

Rewards

Rewards have an interesting pattern for the market.  

The supply kicks first so the market takes a dip due to higher supply than demand (decreasing prices). This moment on the market can be very short (less than 2 minutes) up to almost 6 hours depending on other parts of the market.  

As the rewards supply slowly decreases, people start to sort out the coins they gained from rewards and then start to buy the needed cards. This increases the demand while the supply gets lower which leads to increasing prices for the following hours.

Hype/Panic

Hype and Panic are two community-based market changes, both based on the supply and demand idea.

It's important to understand that both Hype and Panic can create both Supply and Demand. But most commonly Hype creates Demand and Panic creates Supply. 

If there's Hype, you can see increasing prices with the Hype and the resulting Demand for that specific card/cards. The same goes for Panic, people usually sell due to the panic of decreasing prices which already starts a downtrend and decreases prices themselves. 

The important part is to look out for the right balance. There are many cases of hype or panic being bigger than the reason for it. That means for example that panic for a market crash could be bigger than the market crash itself and the market starts to rise as everyone buys at the same time again -> supply started too early and the demand increases earlier too. 

And a tip that saved me a few million coins each year, selling in the hype is always guaranteed profit without risking anything. If everyone sells at the same time, then the supply is usually overweighting the demand. That’s why selling early could be a smart idea because you are still catching the demand but without the additional supply from other people selling. On top of that, sometimes you catch a late trader and you can offload your cards to them.  

Summary

- Higher Supply than Demand = Lower prices

- Higher Demand than Supply = Higher prices

- Out of Packs aren’t market resistant

- Selling in the hype is recommended in most cases