Road to UFC 4 Fight Breakdowns (Updated frequently)

Flyweight, Wataru Yamauchi (7-1) Vs. Namsrai Batbayar (7-1)

Wataru Yamauchi

Pros:
-Combination striker
-Strong kickboxing combinations
-Goes to the body well
-Accurate
-Good jab
-Excellent teeps

Cons:
-Sits in the pocket too long
-Poor head movement
-Questionable cardio
-Will get drawn into brawls

I see Yamauchi as a strong prospect, but his lone loss to Jo Arai raises some concerns. In that fight, he noticeably slowed down, absorbed too many clean shots, and suffered a brutal knockout. While that decline hasn’t been as evident in his other bouts, it remains a potential issue.

At his core, Yamauchi is a high-output striker who thrives on relentless offense. He consistently throws fluid combinations with his hands and legs, working the body well and mixing up his attacks with precision. His jab and teep are key tools, allowing him to control range before exploding into sharp, aggressive flurries. He’s also highly active with his kicks, switching levels seamlessly to keep opponents guessing.

If he avoids unnecessary brawls, he has the potential to run through some opponents. However, his striking defense remains a concern—he’s dangerous to trade with, but also hittable. The biggest question mark is his ground game, as there’s little to no footage available to assess it.

Namsrai Batbayar

Pros:
-Hits hard
-Forward pressure
-Solid wrestling
-Dangerous attacking the neck
-High work rate
-Physically strong
-Good cardio

Cons:
-TDD needs some work
-Loses position too often

Batbayar is a bit of a wildcard because his fights don’t reveal much about his overall skill set. On the feet, he leans heavily on his power and explosiveness, sometimes to a fault—he overcommits to his shots, leaving himself open to counters. However, he appears far more comfortable when initiating the wrestling. He frequently relies on trips, body locks, and double-leg takedowns to control opponents on the ground.

His cardio is a strong asset, allowing him to maintain a high pace and apply pressure deep into later rounds. While his wrestling is solid, his jiu-jitsu appears to lag behind. In scrambles, his aggressive, wrestling-heavy approach can cause him to overextend, giving opponents opportunities to reverse position or escape.

His only loss came against UFC fighter Nyamjargal Tumendemberel, the only high-level opponent he has faced. This fight should provide much-needed clarity on just how good Batbayar really is.

Prediction: This matchup is intriguing because there are still many unknowns about both fighters. Yamauchi’s takedown defense remains a question mark, while Batbayar’s ability to hold his own in extended striking exchanges is also untested.

I’m leaning slightly toward Batbayar. There’s no clear evidence that Yamauchi can handle a strong wrestling attack, which gives Batbayar a potential path to victory. However, Batbayar has shown vulnerability to counter strikers, and Yamauchi thrives in close-quarters exchanges.

Ultimately, it’s a tough call, but I’ll go with Batbayar by decision—though not with much confidence.

Bantamweight, Peter Danesoe (8-3) Vs. Sulangrangbo (8-3)

Peter Danesoe

Pros:
-Good leg kicks
-Nice clinch work
-Good knees
-Good one-two
-Explosive
-Credible wrestling
-Fast starter
-Good ground and pound

Cons:
-Poor cardio
-Poor TDD

This will mark Danesoe’s third appearance on Road to UFC, but his first as part of the tournament bracket. When I initially scouted him, the main concerns were his takedown defense and cardio. The takedown defense still needs work, and his cardio hasn’t been pushed recently, so that remains an open question.

That said, at just 24 years old, Danesoe has clear upside and continues to show improvement. While he can wrestle and grapple, those skills tend to shine more against lower-level competition. His clinch work is the standout aspect of his game—he’s dangerous with knees from the inside and explosive when throwing them mid-transition.

His striking has also been developing, particularly his use of the one-two and straight punches. Danesoe is an exciting, athletic fighter with a high ceiling—he just needs more reps against solid opposition to keep evolving.

Sulangrangbo

Pros:
-Good pull counters
-Good movement
-Diverse kickboxing
-Good right hand

Cons:
-N/A

Sulangrangbo is a bit of a mystery due to the lack of quality tape and weak competition he’s faced. From what’s available, he appears to be a pure striker—technical, composed, and capable of throwing some unorthodox attacks.

His leg dexterity stands out, as he frequently utilizes wheel kicks, ax kicks, hook kicks, and other tricky strikes. However, he’s at his most dangerous when using his hands, particularly his right hand, which he employs effectively both as a lead and a counter.

His best attribute is his ability to move in and out while landing counters, making him a difficult target and a dangerous opponent to rush in on. It’s hard to gauge just how good he truly is, but he’s earned this opportunity—now we’ll get a clearer picture of his potential.

Prediction: Coming into this breakdown, I expected to side with Danesoe, but after analyzing the matchup, that’s not the case. Both fighters are primarily strikers, and while Danesoe has some grappling, I don’t see it being a major factor here.

Danesoe does his best work in the clinch, but securing prolonged exchanges there against the elusive Sulangrangbo will be a challenge. To win, he’d need to either neutralize Sulangrangbo’s movement or land something significant to slow him down.

The key factor is size—Sulangrangbo is the naturally bigger fighter, while Danesoe is moving up from 125. While I see more long-term potential in Danesoe, he’ll be at a disadvantage in terms of physicality, speed, and power. My pick is Sulangrangbo by decision.

Lightweight, Ren Yawei (8-3) Vs. Deni Daffa (6-1)

Ren Yawei

Pros:
-N/A

Cons:
-N/A

Deni Daffa

Pros:
-Good judo
-Uses length well
-Dangerous submissions in transitions

Cons:
-Shoots from too far out
-Hads kept too low
-Poor position control
-Poor cardio
-Terrible off his back
-Throws naked kicks
-Poor TDD

At first, I thought Daffa was a solid prospect, but that’s not the case, unfortunately. He’s primarily a submission specialist with strong judo throws, but beyond that, his skill set has notable flaws.

On the feet, he does well at range, using his length to score and avoid damage. However, he suffers from classic “tall man’s defense”—keeping his hands low and his chin exposed. When he throws strikes or moves backward, his chin remains a constant target.

His takedown defense holds up in open space but falters against chain wrestling and cage pressure. While he can be dangerous off his back, once opponents pass his guard, he tends to flatten out and struggle to recover. His best moments come from explosive scrambles, where he either secures top position or locks in a submission.

Ultimately, his success is often a 50/50 gamble, and as the competition level rises, those odds only get worse.

Prediction: I don’t know much about Ren, but I know enough about Daffa to be hesitant in picking him. Ren comes from a Sanda background and transitioned from kickboxing into MMA, so I’d expect him to have the striking edge in this matchup.

While his ground game is still a bit of a question mark, he appears to be well-rounded enough to handle Daffa’s threats. Based on that, my pick is Ren by decision.

Flyweight, Mridul Saikia (8-0) Vs. Agulali (12-1)

Mridul Saikia

Pros:
- Submission threat
-Scrambles well
-Good TDD

Cons:
-Flat-footed
-Low volume

Saikia is an underwhelming fighter who doesn’t offer much offensively. While he is a submission threat, most of his finishes come from opponents making mistakes rather than him creating opportunities.

His takedown defense is solid, but his offensive wrestling is lacking. On the feet, he does just enough to get by, relying on single strikes with little setup or feints. He throws leg kicks, but he’s predictable—going to the same techniques too often without variation.

Agulali

Pros:
-Good footwork
-Good right hand
-Submission threat
-Chooping leg kicks
-Solid jab
-Educated ground and pound
-Good bodywork

Cons:
-Suspect grappling defense
-Questionable TDD

Agulali is one of the most promising prospects from China, and it’s exciting to see him on Road to UFC this season. While he doesn’t have a standout signature win yet, it’s important to note that many Chinese fighters haven’t had the chance to face top-tier competition, so his resume isn’t a fair reflection of his potential.

Though his grappling defense raises some concerns, his offensive grappling is top-notch. His ground and pound, especially his body-to-head transitions, is a thing of beauty. Additionally, his submission game is tricky—his last two wins came via twister and Suloev stretch, proving how dangerous he is on the ground.

On the feet, Agulali is sharp and calculated, landing damaging calf kicks and wielding a dangerous right hand. He controls the pace with his leg kicks, jab, and well-rounded bodywork, seamlessly blending his hands and kicks. He’s also capable of fighting off his back foot when needed, as seen in various moments throughout his career.

Prediction: Saikia has little chance here. I don’t see any realistic path to victory for him unless he somehow exposes Agulali’s grappling, but I don’t think that’s a significant concern—and even if it were, Saikia isn’t the fighter to exploit it.

I expect Saikia’s poor footwork to be his downfall, allowing Agulali to land his kicks at will. Eventually, Saikia will likely rush in, and I see him getting dropped by Agulali’s powerful right hand. Agulali is simply the better fighter in every area, and this should serve as a showcase fight for him.

Flyweight, Yin Shuai (17-5) Vs. Kai Yoshida (6-1)

Yin Shuai

Pros:
-Submission threat
-Good kicks
-Solid wrestling
-Dangerous in exchanges
-Slick Jiu-jitsu
-Chain wrestlers well
-Explosive
-High work rate

Cons:
-Loose top control
-TDD needs work

I'm glad to see Shuai get another shot after his appearance last season. However, I wasn't impressed with him going to a split decision against Kiru Sahota. That said, I did think he won, despite struggling with Sahota’s length. Shuai is well-rounded and has a solid gas tank, given his high work rate. His striking is effective both in the pocket and at range, where he utilizes leg kicks well.

I believe his wrestling is his strongest asset—he can explode into a double-leg or chain wrestle against the fence. However, his top control is lacking, meaning he often has to rely on catching submissions in transition or using his wrestling to dictate the fight’s pace. Looking at his record, I’m not a fan of either his losses or the level of competition in his wins. Still, when I watch him fight, I see real potential, and I’m hopeful for his future.

Kai Yoshida

Pros:
-Excellent distance management
-Good movement
-Active leg kicks
-Good bodywork
-Clean hands

Cons:
-Poor TDD
-Head movement lacks
-Poor grappling defense
-Easily gives up his back

I don’t understand why they bring in fighters coming off a loss. I was actually high on Yoshida until his last fight. There’s no excuse for a high-level MMA fighter to get caught in a leg scissors choke—it’s slightly less concerning since it happened against a solid opponent, but still an embarrassing way to lose. His ground game is clearly a weak spot, and his wrestling defense struggles due to poor technique, often leading to him giving up his back.

On the feet, his effectiveness depends on maintaining the right range. He keeps his hands low and chin high, so distance management is crucial for him. He has strong leg and body kicks, but his technique can get sloppy when he tries to open up. He’s at his best when he stays composed. When he’s settled, he controls the pace well with short combinations, mixing punches and kicks while utilizing smart footwork.

Prediction: Despite both fighters having some rough losses, I really like this matchup. The key difference is Shuai’s wrestling advantage, which is far more significant than Yoshida’s edge in striking. While Yoshida may have the upper hand on the feet, the gap isn’t nearly as wide as it is in the grappling department. I’m picking Shuai to win by submission.

Flyweight, Rio Tirto (8-0) vs. Aaron Tau (9-1)

Rio Tirto

Pros
-N/A

Cons:
-Low volume
-Poor clinch work
-Telegraph his takedowns
-Poor jiu-jitsu
-Slows as the fight goes
-Doesn't deal well with pressure

When evaluating fighters coming from One Pride MMA, expectations should be tempered—and unfortunately, that applies to Tirto. His record appears padded, and possibly even influenced by questionable judging. In his last fight, I thought he clearly lost, yet the judges gave him the win.

I struggled to find much to like about his skill set. He has an overhand right and some wrestling ability, but both are highly telegraphed. His cage wrestling is particularly weak—he gets backed up easily and can be controlled in the clinch. Even when he secures takedowns, he shows little ability to advance positions. Defensively, he’s vulnerable to sweeps and frequently gives up his back without much resistance.

Aaron Tau

Pro:
-Power hooks
-Good step in knees
-Good pocket striker
-Credible wrestling
-Heavy ground and pound
-Physically strong

Cons:
-Flat-footed
-Hands too low/wide
-Struggles at range

Tau fought on last season’s Contender Series and had an underwhelming performance. I suppose the matchmakers were drawn to his toughness, relentless pressure, and maybe even his face tattoo, giving him another shot. But anyone who has watched his tape can see that he’s not a high-level MMA fighter. He’s the kind of guy you wouldn’t want to run into in a dark alley—but in an MMA cage, the odds aren’t in his favor.

His style, combined with his smaller frame, makes it difficult for him to find success. He moves forward but in straight lines, and his best chance to win is by turning fights into gritty, close-quarters brawls. Unfortunately, his physical and technical limitations hold him back from competing at a higher level.

Prediction: It feels wrong to be confident in Tau, but I am. Tirto simply doesn’t have the tools to exploit Tau’s weaknesses. He’s essentially the same level of opposition Tau has been beating, just with a more polished record. I see Tau walking him down, controlling the fight in the clinch, and breaking him down. My pick is Tau by TKO.

Bantamweight, Chungreng Koren Vs. Haitao Ti

Chungreng Koren

Pros:
-Forward pressure
-Heavy kicks
-Smashing ground and pound
-High work rate
-Relentless wrestling
-Solid cardio

Cons:
-Takes a lot of damage
-Rushes in on straight lines

Koren may not be technically skilled, but he makes up for it with relentless pressure, durability, and an unyielding motor, which can break many opponents within fifteen minutes. While his striking is limited, his kicks pack power—though they lack setup and are thrown without much follow-through. His primary objective is to close the distance and dominate with cage wrestling. Unfortunately, his method of closing the gap is far from polished—he often charges in with little finesse. Koren’s chin hasn’t been severely tested recently, though he remains hittable, with his pressure often helping him absorb less damage. On the mat, he’s always working for takedowns against the cage, relying on trips and attacking the legs. His jiu-jitsu isn’t exceptional, but he consistently lands ground and pound. This style of relentless aggression is effective against opponents who have weaknesses in their takedown defense or conditioning.

Haitao Ti

Pros:
-Good jab
-Good movement

Cons:
-Low volume/Throws single strikes
-Questionable cardio
-TDD needs work

I don't have a solid read on Ti due to limited tape, but from what I've seen, he appears to be a clean striker with a competent ground game. Offensively, he struggles to put his skills together, and defensively, he seems to have areas that need improvement across the board.

Prediction: Based on the fight I’ve seen, Ti struggles with pressure and his takedown defense is lacking—definitely not ideal when facing someone like Koren. The kind of fighter that can give Koren trouble is someone who can punish him when moving forward. Ti tends to be more of a range-and-move fighter, rather than sitting down on his punches. With Ti already having cardio concerns, Koren should be able to push him into deep waters. I expect Koren to maintain a relentless pace, securing multiple takedowns and eventually getting a TKO stoppage late in the fight.

Lightweight, Sang Uk Kim (11-3) Vs. Daichi Kamiya (6-0)

Sang Uk Kim

Pros:
-Submission threat
-Good wrestling
-Strikes to wrestle well
-Good positional grappling
-Good ground and pound

Cons:
-Questionable chin
-Flat-footed at times
-One-dimensional

Kim is making his second attempt at the Road to UFC after finishing 1-1 in season two. Since then, he's picked up two wins, though one opponent had a record of 8-11 and the other was 44 years old. Uk isn't anything particularly impressive. He’s a solid wrestler and positional grappler, relying heavily on his ground game to secure victories. However, his striking is a mess, and if the takedowns aren’t there, he becomes uncomfortable. His discomfort comes from the fact that he struggles to stand and trade on the feet without getting clipped.

Daichi Kamiya

Pros:
-Submission threat
-Chain wrestlers well
-Slick grappling
-Good judo

Cons:
-Will shoot from too far out
-Poor head movement.

Kamiya made a name for himself last October with a standout performance in Australia at Eternal MMA, where he defeated Raymart Quintana via twister. He brings a strong grappling game with both submission skills and a grinding style focused on position control. While his wrestling technique isn’t my favorite, his ability to finish is impressive. Kamiya often shoots for the legs, drives his opponent to the cage, and works for trips to secure takedowns. With a judoka background, his takedowns reflect that style. On the feet, he employs a karate-based stance, with kicks being his most effective weapon. However, he is a liability due to his lack of head movement, making him vulnerable to strikes.

Prediction: This is an intriguing match-up for both fighters, as they share a strong wrestling and grappling background. Kamiya is known for his slick, crafty grappling, while Uk is more disciplined in terms of positional control. While I don’t have a lot of insight into Kamiya’s striking, it's clear that Uk struggles when the fight is on the feet. My confidence is not as high as I’d like, but I’m picking Kamiya. I believe he can win the striking exchanges and, with superior jiu-jitsu and cage wrestling, grind out a decision victory.

Lightweight, Adilet Nurmatov (13-2) Vs. Aziz Khaydarov (21-6)

Adilet Nurmatov

Pros:
-Good wrestling
-Scrambles well
-Physically strong
-Good defensive wrestling
-Good back take
-Well conditioned
-Good ground and pound

Cons:
-Head sits on the centerline

Nurmatov is a highly touted prospect out of Kyrgyzstan, with a game built around relentless pace, strong wrestling, and doing just enough damage once he gets the fight to the mat. While his pressure-heavy style has brought him success, I’m still not completely sold—his cardio often seems to bail him out in tough spots.

On the feet, he's effective at closing the distance, but he’s vulnerable during entries with his chin often hanging high. In open space, his offensive tools are limited, which is likely why he's constantly pressing forward.

His takedown game is all about persistence—he works hard along the cage, circling to the back and securing the back body lock. That’s where he thrives, quickly taking the back and hunting for the RNC. However, his control can be a bit loose at times, so he leans on the body triangle or simply out-scrambles and outworks his opponents.

Aziz Khaydarov

Pros:
-Dynamic kickboxing
-Good ground and pound
-Submission threat
-Improved wrestling

Cons:
-Poor TDD
-Lost off his back
-Shoot takedowns from too far out

Tajikistan-born, Khaydarov has been making waves in the Chinese MMA scene for the past eight years. After starting off 2-5 with five straight losses, he’s turned things around—losing only once in the last eight years. Along the way, he’s picked up quality wins over Yawei Ren, who’s in this season’s tournament, and Aili Mulatebieke, a highly regarded prospect out of China.

Khaydarov is a slick kickboxer with fast hands and a smooth striking rhythm. He’s especially fluid with his spinning attacks and carries himself with confidence on the feet. Lately, though, he’s been mixing in more wrestling. His wrestling and grappling are solid, particularly when working along the cage, and he’s shown some danger when hunting submissions.

That said, I do worry about his defensive liabilities—especially on the mat—which could be a problem against stronger, more well-rounded competition.

Prediction: I keep going back to Khaydarov’s fight with Balajin, where he was repeatedly taken down and controlled on the mat. If Balajin was able to give him that much trouble, Nurmatov absolutely will. Anytime Khaydarov ends up on his back, he looks flat and limited. I fully expect Nurmatov to put him there—and do it over and over again if needed.

While Khaydarov has the edge in striking and is the cleaner technician on the feet, he’s not dangerous enough to really threaten Nurmatov. With both guys being grappling-oriented, Nurmatov holds the clear advantages: better wrestling, better grappling, stronger defense, and far superior cardio.

Featherweight, Yoon Chang Min (7-2-1) vs. Jin Aoi (14-5-1)

Yoon Chang Min

Pros:
-Explosive
-Good judo
-Physically strong
-Submission threat
-Fast starter
-Good TDD
-Heavy top position
-Damaging ground and pound
-Heavy leg kicks
-Strong hips
-Good jab
-Good knees
-Strong clinch work
-Good one-two

Cons:
-Shaky chin
-Reaches with his punches
-Lacks head movement
-Vulnerable in exchanges
-Suspect cardio

I really like Min as a fighter—he's skilled, entertaining, and always brings excitement whether he wins or loses. He’s got a diverse skill set and the tools to potentially thrive in the UFC. The biggest thing holding him back, though, is his defensive liability on the feet. He’s been tagged in several fights, finished before, and even knocked out cold.

Early in his career, his grappling was the stronger area compared to his striking. While he’s not a complete grappler, he’s certainly a dangerous one—he’s got solid ground-and-pound and more submission wins than anything else. He transitions well, controls position effectively, and knows how to attack from top control.

On the feet, Min can be either the hammer or the nail. Despite having just one win by TKO, his striking still shows flashes—he’s got a clean one-two, a decent jab, and sharp leg kicks. He’s especially dangerous on the inside, where his explosiveness really shines. But that’s also where he tends to get caught most—he’s been clipped often in the pocket during exchanges.

At range, he’s serviceable, but only when he’s initiating. When he lets his opponent go first, he’s way too hittable. If Min committed to a 70/30 grappling-heavy game plan, I think he’d be a favorite to win this whole tournament. Regardless, he’s a real threat to anyone in the bracket because of how dangerous he is everywhere.

Jin Aoi

Pros:
-Good leg kicks
-Repetitive striking
-Explosive
-Credible counter striker

Cons:
-Lacks urgency/Low volume
-TDD needs some work

Aoi is a seasoned veteran with nearly ten years in the game and twenty pro fights under his belt. That said, his résumé is thin—his only notable win is over Road to UFC alum Kouya Kanda, a fighter he also lost to. Most of his other losses have come against low-level competition.

Stylistically, Aoi is pretty basic across the board. He’ll flash moments where it looks like he might land something big, but most of his game is built around feints and low output. He does have solid leg kicks, but he’ll often spam them without any setup—no punches before or after, just repetitive kicks that become predictable.

One of his biggest issues is that he rarely dictates the pace. He constantly fights off the back foot, often finding himself with his back against the cage. While he’s improved his use of feints, they rarely lead to meaningful offense. It’s a lot of posturing with very little follow-through, which makes him a frustrating fighter to watch.

Prediction: This is a good matchup for Min to shine. Aoi has a number of KO/TKO wins, but it’s not due to heavy hands—he’s not a one-shot finisher, which plays into Min’s favor. On the feet, I give the edge to Min: he’s more active, throws better leg kicks, and is clearly the more explosive and powerful fighter.

I also have concerns about Aoi’s takedown defense. If Min leans into a wrestling-heavy approach, that’s the clearest and safest path to victory. He has the edge everywhere this fight could go. For Aoi, his best chance is landing something big—but that’s a long shot.

I’m picking Min by submission.

Featherweight, Li Kaiwen (14-6) Vs. Seo Dong Hyun (7-2-1)

Li Kaiwen

Pros:
-Volume striker
-Heavy hands
-Good right hand
-Dangerous pocket striker
-Good leg kicks

Cons:
-Too willing to brawl
-Fight IQ lacks
-Not much off his back
-Sits in the pocket too long
-Lacks head movement
-TDD needs work
-Poor cardio
-Overzealous when chasing the finish

Kaiwen is getting a second chance on Road to UFC after falling short in the Season 2 finale against Yizha. Since that loss, he’s bounced back with two straight wins, earning his way back into the mix. It’s easy to see why he’s getting another shot—Kaiwen is always hunting for the finish and brings relentless pressure.

While his aggressive style makes him an exciting watch, it also exposes a lot of flaws in his game. He’s an in-your-face action fighter with minimal defense and questionable fight IQ. At times, it feels like he's fighting for the sake of violence rather than aiming for a strategic win. Still, that chaos can be effective. His sheer offensive output makes him a dangerous threat to anyone standing across from him.

Seo Dong Hyun

Pros:
-Good counter striker
-Heavy hands
-Good wrestling
-Good leg kicks

Cons:
-Can throw too wild at times
-Suspect chin

It’s hard to understand the logic behind giving a Road to UFC slot to a 34-year-old. If the UFC is that interested in him, why not just sign him outright? Hyun is unbeaten in his last six, with a draw in the mix, and has clearly developed as a fighter over the years.

Early in his career, he was wild and unfocused—more chaos than structure. These days, he’s much more composed, picking his shots with patience and purpose. At his pace, Hyun is a quality operator: technical on the outside with sneaky power that can show up at any moment.

However, he becomes a liability under pressure. His defense isn’t equipped to handle sustained offense, and while he's a decent counter striker, he struggles against volume and extended combinations. His chin also tends to float high, which raises concerns about his durability despite a solid overall skillset.

Prediction: This is solid matchmaking—Kaiwen’s getting a willing dance partner in Hyun. While Hyun could look to wrestle, I don’t think his ground game is strong enough to be a real factor. On the feet, both guys are dangerous but defensively flawed, which sets the stage for a chaotic striking battle.

Offensively, Kaiwen has the edge. He brings more volume, aggression, and a willingness to close distance and engage. Normally, I’d be concerned about him recklessly forcing the action, but in this matchup, that pressure could work in his favor.

I lean toward Kaiwen here, but it’s tough to be overly confident—Hyun carries real power and only needs one clean shot to change the fight.

Featherweight, Keiichiro Nakamura (5-1) Vs. Park Eoh Jin (9-1-1)

Keiichiro Nakamura

Pros:
-Hits hard
-Uses a lot of feints
-Dangerous liver kick
-Accurate striker
-Good kickboxing
-Hard to read

Cons:
-Hands low
-Open to being countered

Nakamura is a promising talent with real potential, but this opportunity might be coming a bit too soon. All of his wins have come against aging opponents or fighters with near .500 records. To his credit, he’s done what you’d hope—finishing all of them in the first round.

While he’s shown some ability to land takedowns, there’s been little evidence of a submission game. His real danger lies on the feet. He starts on the outside with sharp feints and eventually finds the chin, carrying the kind of power that can change a fight with a single shot. He also hides a nasty left kick to the liver exceptionally well.

That said, there are clear defensive flaws. His chin stays high, and his hand placement needs major work. He often leads exchanges with his chin up, and his hands return to his face too slowly—making it feel like he’s one clean counter away from disaster.

Even if he’s not quite ready yet, this tournament could be a valuable developmental step. It’ll test him in ways he hasn’t been tested before—and that might be exactly what he needs.

Park Eoh Jin

Pros:
-Good wrestling
-Slick jiu-jitsu
-Submission threat
-Good ground and pound
-Good straight punches
-Strike to wrestle well

Cons:
-Head sits on the centerline
-Slows as the fight goes

Jin has been on a strong run, rattling off eight straight wins after a 1-1 start to his career. Training out of a small gym in South Korea, he's quietly built a solid résumé. While parts of his record are padded, he does hold wins over seasoned veterans, champions from other promotions, and even a former UFC fighter. His ceiling is still unclear, but the tools are there.

On the feet, Jin is a patient distance striker. He works behind straight punches, low kicks, and a well-timed teep to the body. While he has some stopping power, much of his striking is focused on touching and scoring rather than overwhelming opponents with volume.

Where Jin separates himself a bit is in the grappling. His wrestling isn’t elite, but it’s functional—he times his entries well and will often finish on the second attempt if the first fails. His best work comes when he’s able to mix in ground-and-pound while transitioning to the back, where he's especially dangerous.

The big question marks for Jin going forward are his gas tank and striking defense. He has the skillset, but if his durability and cardio don’t hold up under pressure, it could limit how far he goes.

Prediction: This is a fun fight, and it’s hard to imagine it going the distance. Technically, it’s competitive—both fighters are flawed defensively, which opens the door for chaos. Offensively, though, I give the edge to Nakamura. He has better setups, a wider arsenal, and carries real fight-ending power. That said, his defensive lapses are just as concerning, if not worse, and Jin isn’t the kind of fighter to sleep on, even without one-shot power.

The biggest X-factor is the ground game. Jin has a clear path to victory if he can exploit Nakamura’s underdeveloped grappling. He’s also the more proven fighter, with experience against tougher competition, while Nakamura still has a lot of unanswered questions.

I’m siding with Jin here—his ability to mix things up and take advantage of Nakamura’s ground vulnerabilities gives him the edge. The pick is Jin by decision.

Bantamweight, Sim Kai Xiong (6-1) vs. Kuya Ito (17-8-1)

Sim Kai Xiong

Pros:
-Good wrestling
-Strong TDD
-Submission threat
-Slick grappling
-Quick hands
-Good defensive wrestling

Cons:
-Doesn't deal with pressure well

Xiong fought as a featured bout on RTU on season two. He was someone I liked a lot but went to get knocked out by Peter Danesoe. Although his stock dropped he's still got upside. I mean he has a win over Chang Ho Lee who is a RTU season winner and 2-0 in the UFC. Xiong actually out-wrestled and out-grappled Lee which is impressive. On the feet I worry about his defense and even his offense he can be a little in the mud with his volume. He does have fast hands but needs to commit more. I still have faith that Xiong could turn out to be a UFC-level guy.

Kuya Ito

Pros:
-Good leg kicks
-Solid ground and pound
-Well-conditioned

Cons:
-Low volume/Single strikes
-Poor TDD
-Struggles off his back

Despite what his record might suggest, Ito is a tough guy to go up against. That said, eight losses on the Japanese regional scene is a clear sign he’s not close to UFC level. After watching his fights, I’d argue he could easily have another loss or two on his record. Ito isn’t going to blow anyone away with his skillset—his best asset is probably his cardio, though that might be more a result of how little energy he expends offensively. He throws decent leg kicks and occasionally mixes in a leg kick-hook combo, but he’s often getting outworked in fights and only turns it on with a late flurry to steal rounds. Six of his losses have come by finish, and it’s easy to see why. His striking defense has clear holes, and his takedown defense and grappling are even more concerning.

Prediction: Ito and Xiong have fairly similar styles on the feet, but Xiong looks a bit quicker and more explosive. The real difference, though, lies in the grappling—Xiong is by far the better wrestler and grappler. He’d be smart to shoot within the first minute, and honestly, he’d be crazy not to. I’m confident in Xiong here; he’s the more well-rounded fighter and doesn’t have to worry about any serious knockout threat from Ito.

Bantamweight, Rui Imura (12-4) vs. Nghiem Van Y (5-1)

Rui Imura

Pros:
-Submission threat
-Excellent back take
-Good jiu-jitsu

Cons:
-One-dimensional/Poor standup

Rui competes under the Pancrase banner, so footage of him is extremely limited. From what I’ve seen and heard, he’s a decent grappler but has underwhelming striking. His wrestling also doesn’t quite match the level of his ground game. It’s tough to gauge exactly what to expect from Imura, but based on what’s available, I don’t see him as a serious threat to win this season.

Nghiem Van Y

Pros:
-Fast hands
-Good movement
-Heavy leg kicks
-Explosive
-Hits hard

Cons:
-Poor TDD
-One-dimensional/No ground game

Van avenged his only career loss in a rematch and currently holds a regional title in Vietnam. He’s a pure striker with an abysmal ground game, and his weak takedown defense only makes that more apparent. That said, his striking is legitimately solid—he brings a nice mix of speed, technique, and power. He can get a bit overzealous with explosive shots, which often leads to him gassing out later in fights. On the feet, Van is a real threat to anyone. The key to beating him is pressure—pin him against the cage early and look for takedowns. If you give him space, he’s more than capable of landing something big and riding that momentum.

Prediction: I don’t know a ton about Imura, but stylistically, he’s built to get past someone like Van. Van’s ground game has major holes, and with eight submission wins, Imura clearly knows how to exploit that. In Van’s loss to the Brazilian, he had no answers off his back and gave up mount far too easily—if he does that here, it’s game over. The big question is whether Imura can get it to the ground before Van clips him with something. I’m leaning toward Imura being able to close the distance, eat a few shots if needed, and secure the takedown en route to a submission win.