TUF 33 Cast Breakdown: Welterweight

Jeff Creighton
USA
29-years-old
11-2-1
54% finish rate (1 KO/TKO, 5 Submissions)
A1 Combat welterweight champion
Combined opponents' record: 68-50

Pros

-Good use of elbows
-Good knees
-Gets better as the fight goes
-Tough as nails/durable

Cons 

-Low volume
-Advances in straight lines
-Slow
-Reaches on his punches
-Terrible TDD
-Struggles against the cage

Creighton may not be the most exciting fighter but has been on a roll winning regional titles and beating some good regional guys. He's winning but I wouldn't say he's doing it in a convincing way. He's been winning off close decision wins by doing more damage. Creighton started off as a finish but has won five straight decisions.

Creighton’s style is anything but refined, yet he’s made it work. What he lacks in technical skill, he compensates for with sheer durability and endurance, often outlasting his opponents. His toughness is essential to his approach—winning fights through relentless pressure rather than precision.

He fights at a low volume, often overextending on his punches, with every movement looking labored. He thrives in close-quarters combat, aiming to turn fights into gritty phone booth brawls. However, even when closing the distance, he leaves himself wide open for counters. His best moments come in the clinch, where he delivers slicing elbows and solid knees, but his lack of control often sees him pressed against the cage. Much of his success comes from landing damage while defending takedowns, but his takedown defense itself remains a glaring weakness—he’s been far too easy to drag to the mat.

Creighton has survived largely because he refuses to break, while many of his opponents have folded under his pressure. Despite his many flaws, he’s a dangerous challenge, particularly for fighters who struggle with their gas tank. However, the TUF format doesn’t suit him. He can’t afford to play possum in a potential two-round fight, and if he pushes the pace, his defensive vulnerabilities could cost him.

Matt Dixon
USA
29-years-old
11-1
73% finish rate (4 KO/TKOs, 1 Submission)
Combined opponents' record: 79-54

Pros

-Solid jab
-Good check left-hook
-Good kicks
-Utilizes feints very well
-Always mixing it up
-Well-versed in the grappling
-Excellent wrestling
-Good boxing skills

Cons

-Hands drop low at times
-Poor cardio

Dixon was a highly touted prospect in 2020 and earned a spot on the Contender Series, where he was given a favorable matchup against Orion Cosce. However, his weaknesses were exposed as his cardio failed him, causing him to fade as the fight progressed. Following that loss, he took a two-year hiatus before returning with a 2-0 record. However, both victories came via first-round finishes against low-level competition, leaving doubts about whether he has truly improved. There's little evidence to suggest he's evolved since his Contender Series defeat.

Dixon is a skilled boxer with a sharp jab and a well-timed check left hook. He effectively mixes body and head attacks with precise shot placement. His striking is well-rounded, thanks to his strong kickboxing, which complements his boxing seamlessly. He frequently chains a crisp jab into a leg kick or a left uppercut into a leg kick, and he consistently throws combinations while varying his attacks. Dixon also utilizes kicks effectively, often setting up his offense behind them or finishing combinations with one. Though he occasionally incorporates flashy spinning kicks, he's at his best when sticking to a conventional approach, relentlessly attacking the lead leg with both power and frequency.

Despite his striking prowess, Dixon's strongest asset is his wrestling. He possesses excellent grappling skills, demonstrating fluid transitions and strong positional awareness. Dixon’s wrestling is anchored by a well-timed double-leg takedown, which he executes brilliantly by using his opponent’s forward momentum to secure an easy dump takedown. He effectively utilizes feints to disguise his level changes, blending his striking with his wrestling seamlessly.

That was my analysis of him in 2020 but it's tough to expect anything of him after that CS stint. He has the skillset but does he have the mentality to go far as a fighter? My guess is no but we'll see in the TUF house.

Alex Sanchez
Mexico
31-years-old
15-3
66% finish rate (8 KO/TKOs, 2 Submissions)
Former A1 Combat lightweight champion
Combined opponents' record: 93-57-2

Pros

-Good leg kicks
-Good TDD

Cons

-Stands too tall
-Low volume
-Poor footwork
-Chin in the air
-Poor position control
-Throws wild/Too wide

Sanchez is riding an impressive seven-fight win streak, capturing two titles along the way—a tournament championship for Combate and the A1 lightweight title. This will mark his first welterweight bout since 2020, though he has recently competed in a few catchweight bouts at 160 lbs.

Despite his success, Sanchez appears to be the most flawed fighter this season. Offensively, he offers very little. His technique is sloppy, with wild, looping punches thrown from the hip, leaving his chin exposed and making him an easy target for counters. He rarely throws straight shots, and his low-volume striking only worsens the issue.

Sanchez isn’t much of a wrestler either, except when defending takedowns—an area where he actually shows some competence. However, his grappling is loose, making it difficult for him to maintain dominant positions, which likely explains his lack of offensive wrestling.

Ultimately, Sanchez doesn’t seem like a serious contender to win The Ultimate Fighter, and it’s hard to see him making it past his first fight.

Rodrigo Sezinando
Brazil
26-years-old
8-1
78% finish rate (4 KO/TKOs, 3 Submissions)
BFL super lightweight champion & Samourai MMA welterweight champion
Combined opponents' record: 35-12-1

Pros

-Slick jiu-jitsu
-Solid takedown defense
-Uses feints well
-Good wrestling
-Good leg kicks
-Aggressive/Fast starter
-Good ground and pound
-Hits hard
-Strikes to wrestle well
-Submission threat

Cons

-Doesn't react well to getting hit
-Loads up on his punches at times
-Can be too willing to brawl
-Throws wild at times/Reckless

Sezinando has only one loss in his career, and since then, he has evolved significantly. After that setback, he relocated to Canada, where he continued training and competing, finding tremendous success. He captured two major titles in Canada and secured wins over strong regional competition.

Sezinando’s fighting style is built on relentless aggression, which makes him exciting to watch but can also be his downfall. He’s at his best when he remains patient, utilizing feints to close the distance and land his powerful right hand. He also has a sharp lead leg kick, though he doesn’t use it as often as he should. One of his biggest weaknesses is his tendency to get drawn into wild exchanges—when clipped, he often resorts to panic wrestling. The upside? Even his panic wrestling is still good.

When Sezinando commits to trading in the pocket, he has the power to put opponents away, and more often than not, it works in his favor. However, his greatest strength lies in his jiu-jitsu. He excels at landing elbows, quickly securing dominant positions, and threatening submissions. His wrestling is another key weapon—he times his takedowns well, shooting under punches, and effectively uses trips and knee traps to bring fights to the mat.

Sezinando is a legitimate threat to win this show. His wrestling and ground game are on another level, and while his striking has its flaws, his relentless pace and energy make him a difficult challenge for anyone.

Diego Bianchini
Brazil
28-years-old
9-1
78% finish rate (1 KO/TKO, 6 Submissions)
Training out of the Fighting Nerds
Combined opponents' record: 31-15

Pros

-Diverse kicking attack
-Good counter striker
-Accurate
-Fast starter
-Submission threat
-Good ability to chain wrestle
-Good back take
-Credible wrestling
-Tough to read

Cons

-Questionable cardio
-Puts a lot of energy into everything early

Bianchini is an intriguing fighter who remains relatively unknown, largely due to his limited activity, competing only about once a year. His record includes a rough-looking loss to an 11-6 opponent, but after reviewing the fight, I believe it was a clear case of home cooking. He appeared to have beaten his Mexican opponent, yet he lost via split decision.

Bianchini made a strong impression in his U.S. debut for LFA last March, securing a first-round finish. A kickboxer at heart, he isn’t shy about throwing flashy techniques, including wheel kicks, switch kicks, and tornado kicks. He fights from a karate stance, frequently attacking with lead-leg head kicks and targeting his opponent’s legs. While he relies more on his kicks than his hands, he is an accurate counter striker who uses awkward movement and unpredictable arm gestures to keep opponents guessing.

In terms of grappling, Bianchini favors single-leg takedown attempts that he chains into more secure positions. He also excels at body-lock trips. Though he isn’t overly aggressive on the ground, he has a knack for taking the back and locking in a body triangle, as evidenced by his four career wins via rear-naked choke. When put on his back, he has shown solid scrambling ability to regain position. However, his overall ground game could still use refinement. That said, he has demonstrated submission awareness—his last fight saw him jump into a triangle choke before seamlessly transitioning into an armbar finish, proving his willingness to take risks and chain submissions together.

Bianchini doesn’t have any glaring weaknesses, but he does need to round out his skill set. Relying primarily on kicks will only get him so far—history has shown that pure kickboxers, especially flashy ones, tend to struggle in the UFC. His grappling looks promising, but he has yet to face a strong wrestler, so it remains a question mark.

One thing is certain: Bianchini is an exciting fighter who guarantees action whenever he steps into the cage. While I don’t see him winning this season, I wouldn’t count him out—his awkward, tricky style makes him a tough puzzle for anyone to solve.

Daniil Donchenko
Ukraine
23-years-old
11-2
82% finish rate (7 KO/TKOs, 2 Submissions)
Naiza FC lightweight champion
Combined opponents' record: 73-51

Pros

-Mixes up striking patterns
-Solid bodywork
-Good ground and pound/Damaging elbows
-Durable/Tough
-Good knees
-Excellent body-head combinations
-Heavy leg kicks

Cons

-Sits in the pocket too long
-Takes too much damage
-Over swings
-Slows as the fight goes

Donchenko was a surprising addition to the TUF cast—but a welcome one. He has avenged one of his two career losses, while the other came against Muay Thai star Jimmy Vienot early in his pro career. A champion in a major Kazakhstan promotion, Donchenko will be moving up a weight class for TUF, as he typically competes at lightweight.

His striking credentials are impressive: he’s a WAKO K-1 European and World Cup winner with a professional Kickboxing/Muay Thai record of 18-2. While primarily known for his striking, Donchenko has a solid ground game for a striker. He’s willing to shoot for takedowns, though he isn’t the most technical wrestler. Instead, he does his best work on the mat by inflicting damage—whether cutting up opponents with elbows or finishing them after knocking them down.

On the feet, Donchenko is relentless. He thrives in close-range exchanges, willing to take damage to get inside. His bodywork is brutal, often setting up devastating elbows and knees. When he’s in rhythm, mixing leg kicks and hooks into his combinations, he’s a problem for anyone standing in front of him. However, his biggest weakness is his gas tank—his cardio dips after the first round. Even when fatigued, he keeps throwing, but he also absorbs a lot of damage in return.

In terms of pure excitement, Donchenko has all the makings of a UFC-level fighter. He’s going to put on a show every time he steps into the cage. However, to win TUF and reach the top, he’ll need to sharpen his defense, improve his cardio, and tighten up his technique.

Richard Martins
Brazil
25-years-old
9-1
89% finish rate (7 KO/TKOs, 1 Submission)
Combined opponents' record: 47-16

Pros

-Good jab
-Chopping leg kicks
-Good clinchwork
-Improved takedown defense
-High guard
-Good shot selection
-High fight IQ
-Good right cross

Cons

-Ground game isn't up to par

Martins has established himself as a force in the LFA cage, boasting an impressive 4-0 record with the promotion. His only career loss dates back to 2019 against Manuel Sousa—a highly regarded prospect in his own right—making that setback far from a blemish.

A well-rounded fighter with significant potential, Martins' primary strength lies in his striking. At first glance, his stance may appear rigid, but his fluid movement and ability to slip punches quickly prove otherwise. He mixes in spinning attacks effectively but thrives on fundamentals, using a sharp jab—often doubling up or targeting the body—to dictate range. He follows up with a precise right cross and relentlessly attacks his opponent’s lead leg. His fight IQ is evident in the way he picks his shots, whether it's the jab, well-timed combinations, or devastating inside work with elbows and knees.

While Martins is dangerous on the feet, his ground game remains a slight concern. Early in his career, questions surrounded his takedown defense, but recent improvements suggest he's shored up that weakness. His defensive wrestling has looked solid, though his jiu-jitsu still lags behind his striking. He isn’t passive on the mat—he looks for openings and stays active—but he can be controlled for extended periods.

Ultimately, Martins is a calculated striker who breaks down his opponents over time, chipping away until he finds a finishing blow or forces them to wilt under pressure. With his skill set and fight IQ, he’s a legitimate threat to win this tournament.

Andreeas Binder
Ireland
28-years-old
10-2, 1 NC
80% finish rate (6 KO/TKOs, 2 Submissions)
Levels Fight League welterweight champion
Combined opponents' record: 93-57-2

Pros

-Excellent judo

-Volume puncher

-Good jab

-Big knockout power

-Heavy ground and pound

-Good head movement

-Good wrestling

-Good kicks

-Strikes to wrestler well

-Good feints

Cons

-Swings wild at times

-Hands too low

-Vulnerable to leg kicks

-Can be too willing to exchange

-Defense worsens as the fight goes

Binder’s professional career got off to a rough start with a loss and a no-contest, but he has been on an upward trajectory ever since. Competing between lightweight and welterweight, he has captured multiple titles, including two welterweight championships in the UK. In LFL, he claimed the lightweight title and currently holds the welterweight belt.

An action-oriented fighter, Binder may lack refined technique, but he compensates with relentless aggression and power. His hands stay low, and his punches are wild, yet he manages to make it work. Despite his unorthodox style, he possesses a solid jab and effectively uses feints—often setting up his signature wild overhand strikes. When those shots land, they do serious damage.

One of Binder’s standout traits is his head movement. He constantly dips his shoulders from side to side while throwing punches, keeping opponents guessing. His most dangerous moments come when he traps opponents against the cage, unloading hooks from both sides in a relentless flurry. His aggressive, bull-rushing style makes him a serious threat, particularly because of his raw power.

However, his biggest weakness lies in his grappling defense. In his last fight, he was submitted far too easily by a 40-year-old opponent. While his takedown defense is adequate, his ground game appears underdeveloped. Striking defense is another concern—he takes a lot of damage in prolonged fights. When he starts to fatigue, he becomes more reckless, rushing in and getting picked apart by jabs.

Binder is a tough challenge for any opponent. To beat him, they must withstand his early onslaught and find a way to outwork him before he overwhelms them.

In order from most to least confident here is who I'm predicting to win this season:

Rodrigo Sezinando

Richard Martins

Daniel Donchenko

Diego Bianchini

Andreeas Binder

Jeff Creighton

Matt Dixon

Alex Sanchez