Hey everyone -- If I were to do a podcast episode that compares 2 superstars, who would you want to hear me discuss? This would expand or explore on any content I've already produced on these players. The idea here is to juxtapose someone against a specific player instead of viewing him in isolation.
For example, Nash-Paul is an interesting comparison because of the differences in their styles. (Control vs. aggression.) These could be current or past players -- you tell me.
...
2019-07-15 19:15:23 +0000 UTC
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Hey everyone -- I've updated the GOAT valuations to include this prior season. I've pulled out 2019 into its own tab along with a few additional players I looked at this year. It's not technically a top-30 list, but it's a view at the top defensive and offensive players in the league and a few other guys I analyzed this year in greater depth based on how I see them.
The CORP valuations you see are what my formula spits out -- it helps me think about the general ballpark of a playe...
2019-07-12 21:51:08 +0000 UTC
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Spreadsheet is updated with the final 2019 BPM results. Working on a longer post-mortem on the Finals that I will post on Backpicks.com
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UPt5oybqcWmazOhQ8JVA4kdchKh14DufF3JYWcZNJ8M/edit#gid=611730820
2019-06-16 17:22:36 +0000 UTC
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Hi all - quick update, I'm trying to move more posts to my website in order to support more content/multimedia in the content. You should be able to unlock posts with your Patreon account.
Please let me know if any of you have trouble seeing a post.
http://www.backpicks.com/2019/05/15/bucks-raptors-can-torontos-role-players-score-en...
2019-05-15 19:04:44 +0000 UTC
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Many of you have asked for playoff leaders in my BPM model and some have specifically inquired about Nikola Jokic. Jokic leads the NBA in postseason BPM at +8.2, well ahead of the next best mark so far:
- Durant +6.8
- Giannis +6.5
- Harden +6.3
- Kawhi +6.1
The usual small sample-sized warnings apply for these players -- see my previous post for details if you haven't -- along with what I discussed with Dave DuFour on podcast #17 about favorable opp...
2019-05-11 19:54:04 +0000 UTC
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One of the major issues with plus-minus based metrics is that they are super noisy. Even single-year RAPMs, put through the mathematical magic of "regularization," are still kind of noisy for my taste.
For my recent video about star players improving or declining in the playoffs, I needed to call on metrics with smaller samples than a full season or two worth of games, which leads to the question:
How much of a sample do we need in the playoffs to be confident in impact?...
2019-04-27 15:15:59 +0000 UTC
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I couldn't fit every notable player in the latest video on changes in the playoffs -- I'll have more in-depth videos on plenty of these players in the future -- but there were a few big names that I cut for time. I'll get to their changes in the metrics outlined in the video, but first a technical note that was too dense for the video:
Players seem to lose value in plus-minus metrics in the playoffs, but not because they're necessarily playing worse. Instead, this is likely the...
2019-04-13 14:01:00 +0000 UTC
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My latest video asks the question: Is Giannis Antetokounmpo now the best player in basketball?
I'm not entirely sure yet, and I always find it tricky to pinpoint emerging players without a larger sample (and, at the least, the playoffs). But I am pretty sure he's one of the three best players this year, and I think he's better than co-MVP frontrunner James Harden. (I'll get into why in the future -- it has a lot to do with defense.)
Even so, Harden is a perfectly fine MVP ch...
2019-04-07 18:41:27 +0000 UTC
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There's a legendary poster on realgm (who has worked for NBA teams) with the handle TrueLAFan -- as in, a Clippers fan, not a Lakers fan -- and many years ago he put together a guide on estimating rebounding percentage (TRB%) before 1971, when the league started officially tracking opponent rebounds.
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=344&t=955514
I had...
2019-03-23 20:42:00 +0000 UTC
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In my Trae Young video this week I talked about his propensity for long 3s. Per basketball-reference's play-by-play, more than half of Young's 3s (!) were from 27 feet or longer.
As we'd expect, accuracy typically drops off as shots grow longer and longer, and these long3s are no exception. The leaders in 27+ attempts will look familiar over the last 2 seasons:
Stephen Curry | 214 @ 39%
James Harden | 198 @ 35%
Trae Young | 156 @ 33%
Brook Lopez...
2019-03-09 18:56:07 +0000 UTC
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So I often have random little thoughts that don't necessarily make it to publication, and I'm trying to find more ways to share them with patrons. Interested to see if you guys like this quick-hit content...
-As of this latest update, Giannis has overtaken James Harden in my BPM model. Harden had held the top spot since the last update in December. Giannis's current mark (+7.8) would be the 10th-highest regular-season peak ever in this stat. His previous peak was already 41st, so the mo...
2019-02-24 21:46:50 +0000 UTC
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There's a lot of variability in outside shooting numbers, so to increase sample I prefer to look at 2-year numbers. Here, I've filtered for at least 250 attempts, which is still a bit on the small side. Players with 400-500 attempts are fairly close to a "true" number -- remember, these catch-and-shoots are not filtered by openness or difficulty, but I think this is a great proxy for the best outside / off-ball shooters in the league.
2019-01-27 19:44:43 +0000 UTC
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Happy New Year everyone!
It took a few months of patronage, but as you know, I was finally able to start making video-based content, and not only was it immediately satisfying to stitch together game film, but the feedback on YouTube has been incredible. My third video (Lonzo Ball) has 200,000 views (!) as of writing this, and channel subscriptions are rapidly growing.
But really, opportunities like YouTube are only possible for me because of you as patrons. It sounds ...
2019-01-13 18:24:53 +0000 UTC
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I've gone ahead and updated the data in the shared spreadsheet. It now contains all player-seasons since the shot clock (1955) with some notable additions, mainly:
-My BPM model (overall and defense)
-My BPM model for the playoffs - you'll see a playoff-only number ("PS") and a RS-PS blend that gives the PS performance more weight
I've added a tab in the sheet that sorts all seasons by this RS-PS blend. I've also added team-based metrics at the end to help contextualize playe...
2018-12-16 17:45:13 +0000 UTC
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Hey everyone -- just a quick update. I've started a YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3HPbvB6f58X_7SMIp6OPYw
The plan is to make a series of player profiles this year and go from there. I'm tentatively thinking of profiling the top rookies, some of the sophomores and then a top-10 player series at the end of the year. Please subscribe and share and if you have additional idea...
2018-12-13 16:35:27 +0000 UTC
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Hey everyone -- first podcast is up. It's all about scoring -- its value compared to playmaking, the value of high-volume seasons, and the best regular season scorers ever.
I definitely wouldn't be doing this without your continued support, so thanks for that. Let me know your thoughts!
2018-08-16 15:38:33 +0000 UTC
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