When Diplomacy Fails Podcast

Age of Bismarck #15: The Giant Cannot Sleep

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What was it about Bismarck that made him take even the slightest amount of opposition so personally? When his appointments were blocked; when Reichstag stalwarts like Ludwig Windhorst challenged him; when he couldn't get one of his many nemeses demoted, the Iron Chancellor's solution was to go nuclear, and threaten to resign. Not even his King was immune from the threat that someday, he might be true to his word. As Bismarck knew full well, the threat worked so well because th...

#55: 2 August 1914 III - Lichnowsky's Last Stand

While Germany covered itself in infamy, the German ambassador in London did his best to maintain the fragile Anglo-German relationship. His mission was ultimately doomed, but no one could accuse Prince Max Lichnowsky of failing to try. An avid Anglophile and advocate of closer ties between the two countries, Lichnowsky continued to hope that his masters in Berlin could be persuaded that it was worth making a sacrifice in the war effort, if it meant Britain stayed out of the war. Unfortunately...

The State of America w/ Thom Daly - Part 2

In this second part of my conversation with Thom, we discuss the unlawful way in which the Trump administration behaves at home, including its treatment of citizens who hold views which the President does not like. It is free speech for me, but not for thee, and we look at the historical context for these actions. Can anything stop Trump? Or are the courts as toothless as Congress and the press. Will the American people be forced to fix these things themselves, or is it already too late to re...

The State of America w/ Thom Daly - Part 1

In this first of two episodes with Thom Daly, we focus on the United States and its position in the world following the Trump administration's many blunders and betrayals in foreign policy, trade policy, and many more things besides. If you believe what Trump has done is antithetical to America and what it is supposed to represent, then you'll be in good company. Please join us for a passionate conversation, and let me know what you think.

#54: 2 August 1914 II - Britain Decides On War

The traditional picture of British intervention in the First World War normally comes down to one issue - Belgium. On 4 August, Britain did declare war on Germany. However, before this monumental step took place, Britain had already made its choice - or, rather, the British Cabinet had. The Liberal government was against intervention in a majority, and we have seen countless manifestations of this position over the previous days. Asquith, Grey, and Churchill wanted to intervene, but how could...

Age of Bismarck #14: 'I Bow Before the Genius of Bismarck'

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What did Bismarck think of the tumultuous showdown with both Austria and the royal regime he appeared to control? Was Bismarck content to place the blame for his failures on others, or was he surprisingly honest about the necessity of his second war in office? Furthermore, we examine the curious transformation which came over both Prussian and European society more generally. Nothing succeeds like success, as Bismarck understood, yet the opposition which faced him nonetheless ...

#53: 2 August 1914 I - Into Luxemburg

The Schleiffen Plan demanded an invasion of the small Grand Duchy of Luxemburg, where German forces would seize key railway installations, facilitating their march into Belgium, and then to France. Of course, nobody told the Luxemburgers, but Berlin was very eager to make it clear that this unannounced invasion was not an invasion at all. Oh no, this was merely a precautionary measure, essential for German security.

If the Luxemburgers complied peacefully, all would be well. If not, we...

#52: 1 August 1914 IV - Desperate Diplomacy

Now that it was clear Germany would have to face the Entente, and likely Britain's imminent intervention, Berlin became much more active in sending diplomatic feelers across Europe. Romania, Bulgaria, Italy, and the Ottoman Empire, were all ideal targets. Some were erstwhile allies, others convenient partners, but could they be relied upon now, when the war had become reality?

In St Petersburg, the Russian answer to Germany's ultimatum was finally delivered, even if it took several hour...

Age of Bismarck #13: 'The Poor Things Have Broken Their Own Necks.'

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In the midst of Bismarck's stunning triumph, Queen Victoria was bombarded with SOS messages from her extended family, and from a wide variety of dispossessed German princes. The Queen lacked much power to do anything, but the transformation of British public opinion from condemning Prussia and then commending her deserves to be underlined. In fact, the idea that Bismarck was somehow healing Germany by beating and unifying it did have some currency. It was the same argument whi...

#51: 1 August 1914 III - The Kaiser's Rollercoaster

We open with the shattered dreams of Kaiser Wilhelm II, as the British claim a 'misunderstanding' must have occurred to make Berlin believe Britain and France could remain neutral. The rollercoaster of emotions ended with Wilhelm's bitter confirmation to Moltke - he could do what he liked now. What Moltke liked to do and what he had to do were one and the same. It was time to switch back on the Schlieffen Plan, which meant world war was inevitable. And yet, Germany delayed its declaration of ...

#50: 1 August 1914 II - 'There Must Be Some Misunderstanding.'

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In the final hours of peace, the German government was led to believe that a miracle had occurred. Incredibly, Britain had affirmed its intention not only to remain neutral, but to guarantee the neutrality of France as well. Where had such a monumental offer come from? Was it legitimate, or the product of a 'misunderstanding' between the German ambassador and the British government? In this episode, we examine this infamous chapter in the crisis historiography. Had the British...

Trump Betrays Ukraine - What is America Doing?

After that disgraceful display in the White House, I couldn't stay silent any longer. Three years on from when I first offered my thoughts on the situation, in this very personal and raw episode, I cover the multilayered implications of the current crisis. What is Trump playing at? Is this new turn in American foreign policy going to fix anything, or is it merely emboldening Russia, weakening Ukraine, and making everyone less safe? You can probably predict where I stand, but if you feel like ...

Age of Bismarck #12: Building the Bund

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After covering himself in triumph, it remained for Bismarck to leverage this triumph into the complete transformation of Prussia, its role within Germany, and his role within all of it. Austria may have been vanquished on the battlefield, but Bismarck would conquer Germany through diplomacy, painstaking negotiations, and a great deal of patience.

But the effort was worth it. Within months, Bismarck had made peace with the Prussian Landtag, with a veiled apology for acti...

#49: 1 August 1914 I - Rolling The Iron Dice

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We're in the endgame now, but somehow, not everyone got the message.

There was plenty of waiting to be done. Berlin was waiting on Russia's reply to its ultimatum, and France was also expected to reply, but the generals felt they could not wait. Who knew how far Russia's mobilisation had gone, or how close Germany was to disaster? With this added time pressure, the Kaiser approved general mobilisation, as Europe reacted to the news that war would soon erupt. Yet, at the ...

#48: 31 July 1914 V - Britain On Defence

In our final JULY episode of the July Crisis, we return to Britain, where the pressure was building to make a decision. Russian mobilisation was clearly in the air, and if the news was true, German mobilisation would soon follow. Was peace possible even now? Many in Britain insisted it could, and declared that to fight a war in the name of a far off Austro-Serbian conflict was anathema to British interests - and British honour.

But the interventionist camp was growing in strength as wel...

Age of Bismarck #11: Enter Napoleon

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Bismarck's triumph may have been complete on the battlefield, but he knew that the diplomatic game was just getting started. Napoleon III, Emperor of France - like most contemporaries - were stunned by the speed and extent of Prussia's victory. Seeking compensation, Napoleon attempted to leverage what few advantages he had to come away with a win.

Recognising a useful tool when he saw one, Bismarck dangled all manner of potential gifts - Luxemburg, Belgium, portions of ...

#47: 31 July 1914 IV - 'A Finger's Breadth From War'

Now that Berlin had accepted that war with Russia was inevitable, it remained to prepare the diplomatic ground.

German diplomacy had worked behind the scenes to court Romania and the Ottoman Empire, but the latter effort bore the most significant fruit. The Italians were less dependable, but there remained precious little time to persuade Austria to grant her the required concessions. And yet, the German ambassador kept seeking a way out when among his Russian peers. The Tsar insisted i...

#46: 31 July 1914 III - 'We'd Like Those Chaps To Be In It Too'

As the news of Russian mobilisation and Germany's Kriegsgefahr spread across Europe, urgent telegrams followed.

Whether in London, Berlin, or Paris, the picture was becoming clearer, but that did not mean contemporaries were content to allow the march to war. The Tsar had burned his bridges in Berlin, as the disgusted Germans scoffed at his decision to mobilise while requesting their mediation. Could he not understand that it was a provocation to prepare his entire army on...

Age of Bismarck #10: Winning the Germans

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Austria may have been defeated, but for Prussia to consolidate her triumph, Bismarck believed nothing less than the annexation of several of her allies would do. But how would he realise this dramatic mission, and would Europe allow him to extinguish the independence of such states as Hesse, Schleswig Holstein or Hanover? Why did Bismarck seem to hold a special resentment for the historic city of Frankfurt, where he had once cut his teeth as envoy to the German Confederation, ...

#45: 31 July 1914 II - From Russia with Lies

Russian general mobilisation was underway, and with red imperial posters announcing this grave new step, it could hardly be kept a secret. Yet, somehow, Germany seemed the only power truly in the loop. The question was, why were France and Britain unaware of it? Were they unaware, thanks to their ambassadors in St Petersburg, or had London and Paris chosen to ignore this seismic step, in their rush to blame Berlin?

The behaviour of Ambassadors Buchanan and Paleologue certainly deserves ...

#44: 31 July 1914 I - Start Spreading the News

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By now, Europe was on a knife edge.

In Berlin, more and more rumours were pouring in that Russian general mobilisation was underway. In Vienna, no statesman was willing to make any concessions. Paris and London were both running shockingly blind. In St Petersburg, the morning of 31 July meant the official beginning of general mobilisation - with official red notices plastered across the city to drive it home.

When Ambassador Pourtales came upon these, he went immed...

Age of Bismarck #9: Winning the Peace

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As Bismarck surveyed the stunning extent of Prussia's military victory over Austria in July 1866, one problem immediately loomed into view. Where once he had driven the Prussians reluctantly into war, the Iron Chancellor now found that restraining their thirst for conquest was an even greater challenge than beating the Austrian foe.

What was more, external pressures meant that pulling his countrymen back from overextension was critical. Napoleon III was watching on from...

#43: 30 July 1914 V - Britain on the Fence

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The 30 July was a turning point for the British Cabinet. When the German Chancellor made his bid for British neutrality, yet refused to guarantee the independence of Belgium or to rule out annexations of French colonies, it set in motion a terrible chain of events.

Sir Edward Grey planned to use this faux pas to pile more pressure on the non-interventionists, who seemed to be growing in power every day. His Cabinet was thoroughly divided, but there was one bright spark -...

#42: 30 July 1914 IV - Smash Your Telephone!

The Russian decision to commence general mobilisation against Austria and Germany was made in the afternoon of 30 July, ultimately by the Tsar.

It took 24 hours of intense pressure by several leading Russian officials, but after backtracking the previous day, Tsar Nicholas was finally persuaded to go all in. His anxious generals were told that there was no going back - he would not change his mind again, and they could smash their telephone if they wished to guarantee it. But why were t...

The Age of Bismarck #8: The Seven Weeks' War

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What a way to start the new year! Here we look at the opening phases of the Austro-Prussian War of 1866. What did contemporaries think of Prussia's odds of victory at the time, going up against the Habsburg dynasty, and virtually all the middle German states? How could Prussia hope to match such enormous combined forces? If you asked Moltke, he would say the key was to attack before they could combine.

Thus, four Prussian armies launched themselves into Saxony, Hanover ...

#41: 30 July 1914 III - Immediate Danger of War

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Welcome to our first episode of 2025! We return to a pivotal moment in the crisis, when Germany experienced yet another 180 in policy.

A day which began with a frantic German effort to pressure Austria into making concessions soon devolved into the more familiar mission - preparing the realm for war. What had caused this shift in German policy? Why had Bethmann Hollweg and Jagow given up on restraining their ally? Had they resigned themselves to a world war? The answer l...

Age of Bismarck #7: Europe on the Edge

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Why did Napoleon III fail to intervene to save Austria from such a fate, and prevent Prussian dominance? Despite what the French may claim, their Emperor had no clothes. As Bismarck understood it, the French, like the British, would bark but not bite. None would weep the defeat of immoral Austria, which had so ruined its reputation by its actions in the Duchies. The Russian Tsar still nursed a grudge for the Crimean War, and the Italians were preparing a coup of their own, whi...

#40: 30 July 1914 II - 'A Very Ticklish Thing'

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As Thursday 30 July progressed, one thing seemed clear to the German Chancellor and Foreign Minister - Austria had to be stopped, before the crisis deteriorated any further.

The solution appeared to lie in drawing some commitments out of her, and perhaps preparing the ground for some kind of compromise. It was vague, but Bethmann and Jagow depended on Tschirschky, their ambassador to Vienna, to help them over the line. Could Berchtold be persuaded? Tschirschky, in fact, ...

#39: 30 July 1914 I - Caught in the Net

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By the morning of 30 July 1914, the German government was undergoing something of an identity crisis. Was Berlin the resolute ally, determined to support Austria whatever the cost, or was she the rational actor, determined to avoid war, even if this proved painful? To the German Chancellor and Foreign Minister, the answer wasn't immediately clear, but they were certain that where Austria was concerned, enough was enough. It was time for Vienna to explain what it planned to do ...

Age of Bismarck #6: The State of Austria

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We've seen Bismarck's side, now it's time to take a proper look behind the curtain, to see just how many chronic problems Austria was hiding. Several deep crises beset the polyglot empire by 1866, and although they weren't all of Bismarck's making, he was determined to exploit every last advantage he could find.