ionicXBT

4) How to survive your first Crypto Bear Market.

This has been HIGHLY requested. So forget about the introduction. Let's get straight into it.

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As this crypto bear market deepens, expect an INCREASE in the amount of "fear, uncertainty, and doubt" (FUD).

You will see more collapse of projects or fear in stable coins, which will all EQUATE to one thing:

MORE PEOPLE WILL LEAVE.

The chart below shows the search for crypto on google. The interest has DIED DOWN a lot, whilst it peaked during the bull run.

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This can be quite scary and shocking for NEW market participants.

Especially as the previous year, you heard about how everyone was MAKING MONEY and all markets were just going up.

You had taxi drivers talking about their crypto portfolio and everyone gossiping about Safemoon.

Now compared to this year, all we have seen this year is nothing but a DECLINE. 

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What is a crypto bear market?

A bear market is a long period of a DOWNTREND, lower lows, and lower highs. 

In traditional markets, this usually starts from 20%. 

But as crypto is more VOLATILE we can say a 40% decline trend.

This usually happens after parabolic moves of unsustainable GROWTH.

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Now many people associate this growth due to the BITCOIN HALVING EVENT.

Bitcoin halving is when the reward for mining Bitcoin transactions is cut in half.

This causes an INCREASE in prices for bitcoin due to reduced supply and surging demand.

The halving event happens EVERY 4 YEARS, which is where the bull and bear terms come from.

Now even though many people believe this, I believe it's a LATE INDICATOR as the price most times has already bottomed BEFORE this halving event.

But still, something to keep your eyes on.

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2022 BEAR MARKET

Understand that every bear market is SIMILAR and UNIQUE in its own way.

Let me explain.

In 2017, we had Warren Buffet being the face of crypto with influence over the market.

And in 2022, it's Elon musk and Michael Saylor the face of crypto.

In 2017, we had south Korea rumouring that it would ban bitcoin which caused the price to fall.

And in 2022, it is China banning bitcoin which also caused the price to fall.

Here's what 2017 looked like:

• 17 December 2017: Bitcoin's price reached a new all-time high of $19,800.
• 12 January 2018: Rumours that South Korea could be preparing to ban trading in cryptocurrency, caused the price to fall
• 26 January 2018: Coincheck, Japan's largest cryptocurrency OTC market, was hacked.

You see the SIMILARITIES.

The same hacks and fear spreading on headlines today, also happened in 2017.

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But this time what's going on?

Central Banks started to INCREASE interest rates while DECREASING the printing of money. 

This was NEGATIVE for stocks and crypto markets as investors now have LESS MONEY to invest.

Also, projects that had taken on TOO MUCH RISK became EVIDENT as cryptocurrency values continued to FALL. 

Hedge funds and lending platforms were exposed to over leveraged positions when the Terra ecosystem failed. 

We have seen the collapse of huge companies such as FTX, which collapsed for being insolvent (no liquid user funds)

This resulted in forced selling left and right which caused prices to DROP by more than 50%.

This is all needed for the next bull run, the fear will always be here in bear markets as that is what gets rid of new participants.

So how do we get to pass this stage...

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Focus on your Psychological mind.

You might think you are FINE and that you just want to make the money YOU LOST back.

But that's where the PROBLEM is.

Revenge trading is never the solution.

If you took some significant losses in your portfolio and all you remember is when you were at an ALL-TIME HIGH, it is UNDERSTANDABLE that you feel awful.

But there is NO BENEFIT in being all emotional. Just a waste of time.

Grief has five stages:

• Denial
• Anger
• Bargaining
• Depression
• Acceptance

Realise what stage you are on. 

Once you come to the ACCEPTANCE STAGE you will see CLEARLY.

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What you have to REALISE is that:

Cryptocurrency will be around forever. In five or ten years it will be MORE PROMINENT than it is now.

So It’s worthwhile that you STAY and INVEST.

And when is a better opportunity to accomplish that than a bear market?

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Only invest in what you can AFFORD to lose.

I'm sure you're aware of how many times you've heard this. 

But what does this ACTUALLY mean?

The amount should be enough to NOT make you lose sleep over it or panic sell at the bottom if the market collapses. 

The amount should NOT play with your MIND.

Surviving is a psychological game. 

Before you deposit USDT into your exchange be HONEST with yourself.

Whatever amount you deposit, write it off to zero. Believe that money has gone already. Do not count that as a part of your net worth.

Why?

In the event that it actually reached zero, could you handle that? 

If you can, then your chances of LONG-TERM SURVIVAL are very good. 

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Dollar-Cost Average.

The truth is that 95% will NOT CALL THE BOTTOM.

This is not a reliable strategy to depend on someone.

They DID NOT call the TOP of the cycle when bitcoin was at $69k, so what makes you think that they call will the bottom?

But I did and I did it publicly.

Now I'm not saying I will 100% call the bottom, but I WILL TRY MY BEST.

(I will do a post on what indicators I look at to show you soon.)

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People think that FOMO is only when price is pumping, WRONG.

FOMO of missing the bottom is also real.

But DCA is arguably the best way to enter.

If you have already decided to get involved with a certain crypto project, 

using DCA is the best way to minimize the risks involved. DCA is:

systematically investing equal amounts of money at regular times, regardless of the price.

Doing that can enable you to safely distribute your budget and beat FOMO.

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Review your portfolio.

Just because it is a bear market DOESNT MEAN you buy everything and anything.

You have to be very STRATEGIC.

Sometimes buying crypto at low prices doesn’t translate to PROFIT. 

The reality is that 90% of crypto will never actually reach an all-time high again.

Developers often leave projects during the crypto bear market as the project struggles to survive.

Now is the time to look at the projects and see if they are still building during this climate.

Are they updating the community on their progress on twitter?

Are they still following their roadmap and achieving their target?

If not chances are they have left the project and you dont want to be holding a dead bag during the next bull run. 

Do stuff outside of Crypto.

I know people who had good lives and hobbies but slowly LOST THEM due to Crypto. 

They couldn’t take their eyes off the charts and couldn’t relax. 

Make sure that this is NOT YOU.

If you wake up every morning and the first thing you do is check the prices.

RELAX. WORK ON IT.

Draw your levels on a High time frame and WAIT for prices to reach YOUR DESIRED LEVEL.

Be in control, don't let the markets control you.

Furthermore, the more you look at prices, the more likely you are to make STUPID DECISIONS that were not part of your strategy.

Have a life outside of crypto, work out and really look after your health. 

STEP AWAY for a second from Crypto Twitter and engage with your friends and family.

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Prepare yourself in a Bear Market.

The time now is for building.

Money is made during a bull run whilst WEALTH is made during a bear market.

During bear markets, many Crypto projects start to focus on what actually counts.

As during a bull run, they get a huge influx of short-term community members just asking about price targets. 

But during this time the excitement has subsided, and they can focus on improving their products with the long-term community members.

What could you possibly do?

Educate yourself about Crypto principles, finance, and specific market sectors such as NFTs or play 2 earn.

Invest in the future such as Privacy coins.

Not based on today.

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Believe in the LONG-TERM potential of blockchain and crypto.

remember that prices ALWAYS go UP and DOWN, but as long as fundamentals stay the same, don't worry.

ACCEPT where you are TODAY and LEARN from your prior cycle’s behaviour. 

Understand yourself. 

Make a plan and stick to it based on certain circumstances you may imagine. 

Meanwhile, focus on your crypto skills and your life outside of Crypto. 

There is, in fact, one!

And if this is your first, then realise it’s completely normal to lose your first bull/bear run. 

All of the winners who profited LOST IN 2017 and will tell you the same.

@ionicXBT

3) How to stay motivated.

Think about all the time you've WASTED putting something off because you were not motivated.

All the FAKE movies with FAKE storylines you watched, caused you to delay your REAL goals.

How many more YouTube 'motivational videos' or 'motivational music' do you need? 

Just look around you.

Don't you want more for yourself?

Imagine if you had cut out all the bullshit and DID WHAT YOU SAID YOU WOULD DO. 

You would be living such a DIFFERENT LIFE right now.

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Now your probably starting to feel as if you've wasted so much time in your life. The guilt hurts, right?

You wish you could have, or should have, and would have.

But that doesn't CHANGE ANYTHING.

So instead of feeling sorry for yourself, LEARN TO FIX IT as soon as possible.

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MOTIVATION IS A FEELING

You only feel motivated when you are RESTRICTED TO DOING SOMETHING or HAVE AN IDEA TO DO SOMETHING.

This gives you a burst of motivation EARLY ON.

Let me explain.

If your gym was refurbishing and you were restricted from using that gym for 2 weeks,

then 9 times out of 10, after the first week of waiting you would be eagerly ready to go. You would feel motivated and ready.

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Similarly, when you come up with an amazing idea or a business idea, those first few moments of euphoria eagerly make you want to start to work.

You rush to tell everyone.

But then this DIES DOWN.

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Listen to yourself when you delay a task. The most common thing people say is:

"argh, I don't FEEL like (motivated) doing it". 

What does this tell you?

You're subconsciously aware that motivation is a FEELING.

Sometimes you FEEL it and sometimes you don't. 

Sometimes you'd feel motivated about doing things as it's really exciting at first, but that feeling doesn’t last, the motivation fades away and you stop taking action.

This means you simply CAN NOT RELY on motivation.

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The biggest lie ingrained in people's heads is that:

"I need to get motivated BEFORE I take action."

When in reality, ACTION LEADS TO MOTIVATION, not the other way around.

Motivation is unreliable as it is based on if you feel like doing something. 

It is severely weakened by a lack of energy and random bad moods. 

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THINK BIG, BUT START SMALL

'Motivation comes from the word 'motive', which denotes a person's needs, desires, wants, or urges.'

If you do not have any desires or wants, then you will not have the urge to do anything.

This brings me to a good point.

If you desire something or dream of reaching a goal, then you are very capable of achieving it.

In other words, IF YOU CAN SEE IT IN YOUR HEAD, THEN YOU SURE CAN HAVE IT IN YOUR HAND, or you would not have that thought in the first place.

You cannot hit a target that you cannot see. 

Identify some exciting goals for yourself. And start small.

The key to getting started is to make it as easy as possible to do so.

Setting these goals is the first step, which everyone can do,

but the next step is where everyone fails.

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SET SHORT-TERM DEADLINES.

Everyone sets goals but never achieves them. 

Why? 

Not because the goal is not achievable, but because THERE IS NOT ANY PRESSURE. 

When you're in an exam and realize that there are only 10 minutes remaining, you rush eagerly to finish it, the PRESSURE makes you more motivated than ever to complete the paper in time.

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Likewise, during New Year's resolutions, everyone sets goals for the New Year.

But only 19% achieve it, proving clearly this doesn’t work.

This doesn’t work because the PRESSURE FOR ACCOUNTABILITY happens after 12 months. 

What should you do instead?

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Set goals with deadlines. No matter how big or small the goal is SET DEADLINES. 

If you give yourself all day to clean the house, it will take all day. But if you give yourself 3 hours to complete the task, it will take you 3 hours.

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USE WILLPOWER

Don't wait for something, or someone, to come around and motivate you before you get up and take action.

Instead of motivation, increase your desire to take action WITHOUT THOUGHT. 

USE WILLPOWER TO FORCE YOURSELF TO TAKE ACTION.

Don't give yourself the time to think whether you should do it or not.

You don't need the motivation to brush your teeth, you do it REGARDLESS of how you feel.

In the same way, you built this HABIT, anything else you want to complete should be done the same way.

•  If you want to go to the gym? 

Don’t start by thinking about your workout. Instead, just put on your gym clothes. 

This small action will trigger your mind to do the next action related to what you just did which is to go to the gym.

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• If you want to do your work? 

Instead of thinking about the different things you have to do today.

Just start with the most important one. 

If it is a large task, just aim to do the beginning of the task.

Then now that the ball is rolling yourself you will find it easier to continue.

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• If you want to wake up early? 

Rather than trying to wake up at 5 am the next morning, even though you normally rise at 7 am.

Start by waking up at 6:45 am for a week. Then 6:30 am the next. 

The week after that, 6:15 am until you reach your goal to wake up at 5 am every morning.

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Notice that each of these relies first on action rather than motivation. 

Why?

Because the action itself gives you the motivation to continue taking more actions.

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NOW IMAGINE,

if you dedicated the next 30 days of this last year to do what you said you wanted to do and JUST STARTED. 

You will be glad you didn't wait.

BECAUSE whilst everyone else waits for the New Year fireworks to start, you'd be already ahead.

You can do it, YOU ARE NOT LAZY.

Lazy people are HAPPY being lazy. 

You're here trying to change, so laziness isn't who you are, it's a habit you want to break.

Don't say I'm lazy, it's not true.

STAY DISCIPLINED (we will talk more about this next time)

You take action by taking action. No thought is necessary. 

Don't convince yourself to do it, just do it.

Stop treating all the things you know you need to do as "optional." 

As soon as you allow yourself the freedom to ponder whether any of the things you need to do are truly worthwhile, you already lost.

@ionicXBT

2) Finding a 10x project through Crypto whales.

1) First Recession? Bring it on.

This post is intended to:

- Teach you about previous recessions you missed.

- Tell you why recessions are the greatest time to be alive.

- How to come out on top while people lose.

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For many new investors, this is their FIRST TIME experiencing a crash like this. Currently, the economy has corrected with:

- The S&P500 is down 27%, which is a basket of the top 500 LEADING companies.

- The NASDAQ is down 37%, which is the 2nd largest American STOCK EXCHANGE after the new York stock exchange (NYSE).

- BITCOIN is down 75%, which is the first and largest CRYPTO by market cap.

and if you've been buying more SPECULATIVE stocks like zoom or crypto low market cap projects, you can be easily down 80%.

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The first thing you have to realise is that RECESSIONS ARE NORMAL, there have been 11 recessions since 1948, and it has made a new ALL TIME HIGH every single time.

Traditional investors assume recessions happen every 7 years, but history clearly shows this is just a baseline as some take longer time to occur.

But we can agree that it is a RARE OCCASION and after this recession, the next one will take years to come about.

A great OPPURTUNITY in disguise let me tell you why.

But first, let's talk about PREVIOUS RECESSIONS to get an understanding:

Let's begin:

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2000 INTERNET BOOM (DOTCOM BUBBLE )

Sidenote: Any kind of economic bubble refers to a situation in which prices are higher than someone would reasonably expect. If a bubble bursts then it signals a deep correction,

Before this recession, there was a HUGE RALLIES in companies similar to what we have in crypto.

The internet was first introduced and it was a revolutionary technology that shifted the world, everyone wanted in on it.

This was fuelled by low-interest rates in 1998, which made a lot of people borrow money to run an internet-based business which ENTICED highly speculative investments.

And investors were getting a low-interest return from banks, so it was better to buy into their IDEAS for a greater return, plus who wouldn't want a piece of the next big thing?

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However, the majority of these projects, or should I say 80%, had NO roadmap or market-leading utility.

The bubble eventually burst after investors realised that these companies had business models that were NOT SUSTAINABLE.

The recession lasted 2 years between March 2000 and October 2002.

During this time the S&P500 dropped down 49%, the NASDAQ dropped down 77% and FEAR was spreading like a wild fire.

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2008 FINANCIAL CRISIS (HOUSING BUBBLE)

Before this recession, the housing market (which is property prices as a collective) was steadily RISING for a while.

People became increasingly confident and started to believe properties are worth more and more and that not buying property in this market would be foolish.

Banks also saw how much homeowners' property value is increasing and started to approve loans on ANY basis.

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They thought house prices will continue to RISE, so they created as many mortgages as they can since they knew if the debtor can't pay the mortgage and defaulted,

they'll just repossess the property which should have an increased value above that of the original loan.

So how did it go wrong?

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All this was fuelled by CHEAP CREDIT and lax lending standards.

When the bubble burst, the banks were left holding trillions of dollars of worthless investments in subprime mortgages.

Now everyone is SELLING or defaulting on their loans, house prices are DROPPING, and the banks aren't lending to anyone so demand drops further.

Companies started to LAY OFF WORKERS who they couldn't afford, so this even impacted normal working people.

The bubble burst and the recession lasted 1.3 years from between October 2007 to March 2009

During this time the S&P500 dropped down 57%, the NASDAQ dropped down 51% and panic was on the rise.

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NOW HERE WE ARE IN 2022.

Currently, the S&P500 is down 27%, and the Nasdaq is down 37%.

What caused this?

Well in 2020 the COVID 19 outbreak resulted in a decline in the economy.

Many individuals were unable to work and businesses were forced to put their operations on hold because of this global pandemic.

Many businesses lost valuable customers and the economy was slowing down.

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So what did the government do to BOOST the economy? PRINTED MONEY. A lot of money.

They offered thousands of pounds of stimulus checks to each household as well as schemes to boost back the economy.

And it did.

Stocks and crypto pumping crazy as people are getting money and using it to invest.

But INFLATION is a silent killer. It reached the highest level since 1981 at 11.1%

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Now, what is the actual definition of a recession?

"Two consecutive quarters of decline in GDP growth"

Simply put GDP (which measures how well an economy is doing), declining for 2 quarters in a row.

We have already seen this and smart investors are aware, but the media think otherwise.

The reason they DON'T think it's a recession is that the second quarter's decline didn't go LOWER than the previous quarter's decline.

But a decline is a decline especially during two successive quarters, unless they want to change the definition.

But news and retail are ALWAYS LATE and will only accept it when it's too late to profit.

The intelligent investor's side is who you want to be on.

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WHY THIS IS THE GREATEST TIME TO BE ALIVE

Recessions cause prices to fall to UNPRECEDENTED LEVELS and only the WISE are PREPARED to capitalise from it.

Now that we understand previous history, we can refer back to the 2000 recession.

During the boom Amazon reached a peak share price of $5.60, the recession caused the price to FALL 95% to a price of $0.28.

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The MAJORITY OF PEOPLE LEFT and decided to give up, they decided that investing wasn't for them.

But some people stayed as they understood cycles because they had LEARNED, and they bought more.

For the people who stayed, they enjoyed huge rewards,

This internet technology, which started as a single screen on a computer, became the face of current times.

22 years later to this day amazon's price has increased by over 31,000%.

The cycles will be explained in another post, but recessions are one of the lowest points of cycles.

Recessions have the LOW RISKS and can INCREASE RETURN potential because everything is available at a DISCOUNT.

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HOW YOU WILL TAKE ADVANTAGE

An average person in a recession will just worry about trying to STAY EMPLOYED, which won't get you far.

This is how you will PREPARE.

CASH is king during a real recession.

If you do not have the capital to invest, then you won't get pretty far. You need capital and it is best to have A LOT of it during this time.

You will get a second job or do what you have to do to get extra capital as there is nothing worse than watching your favourite project be at its lows and you can't afford it.

A second job will also help you as you could get laid off as companies budget shrinks. So a second job will PROTECT YOU as you prepare for it.

Do not CARE about what other people will think of you, you are playing the BIGGER GAME which they are not aware of.

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You will look at your FINANCES.

Now is the time to LIMIT your expenditures.

Property values will DROP if you’re into real estate. We have already seen high property listings which is a warning people are eagerly trying to sell.

Certain projects will be UNDERVALUED. Look for companies that aren’t desirable right now, but have solid FUNDAMENTALS. (I will share mine soon)

If you’re into LUXURIES, you’ll find watches and sports cars at half to 2/3 of their current value as people sell them to keep businesses afloat.

In 2009, people were able to buy a car for half of what it is worth today.

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I will conclude with this final point

Everyone knows to Buy low and sell high until it's time to ACTUALLY buy low.

So Prepare yourself. You still have time, before retail catch on.

This is just start, next I will show you practical Indicators so you know what to look at as a signal for when the market bottoms.

@ionicXBT

The work starts now.

Many of you are here for a REASON.

You want to invest in yourself. You finally have decided that you deserve more than your current state. You're ready to level up.

Or maybe you just like my Twitter and want to understand the way I think.

Nevertheless, the world is ever-changing, volatile and unstable. The world is becoming more and more ruthless, the economy is more challenging, and it is only in these times that the fittest will survive.

So if there has ever been a better time which requires you to level up. The time is NOW.

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But firstly realise you are insanely LUCKY to be here.

This link you received will NEVER be posted publicly for anyone to join.

After you join, it gets CLOSED. 

If you decide to leave, go ahead, you won't EVER gain access back.

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Knowledge gets passed on, but I don't want to pass knowledge on the way most people do.

They use sophisticated words to sound SMART but end up looking pretentious. It loses the sweet taste of seeking knowledge.

I intend to keep it simple. Digestible. Able for anyone to understand.

Why? Because I strongly believe:

If you can't explain it to a 4-year-old, then you don't understand the subject enough.

I will cover topics for those who have a basic level of understanding to those who want more advanced.

The price is CHEAPER than Netflix, why don't I charge more?

I keep it low as possible so that you feel a sense of GUILT and SHAME when realising you're spending MORE on useless liabilities than on YOURSELF!

Right now it is only YOU against YOU.

With that being said, see you tomorrow with the first post.

@ionicXBT