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This is Report 306 and is 46 pages.
What's the big story? President Joe Biden is in Kyiv and visited several locations with President Zelenskyy and other officials.
The second story? Russian milbloggers claim that in the Kreminna Operational Area, Russia has switched to the defensive.
The Malcontent News Russia Ukraine W...
2023-02-20 11:35:53 +0000 UTC
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United States President Joe Biden has arrived in Kyiv. Moments after he was observed exiting a vehicle, a Russian Mig-31K took off from Belarus. Air raids are ongoing across all of Ukraine.
2023-02-20 09:52:40 +0000 UTC
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Are you new to our Patreon? You need to click on the link to download the PDF attachment.
This is Report 305 and is 46 pages.
What's the big story? It's not on the battlefield. Gloom and doom about Russia's ability to "win" in Ukraine are spreading past the usual suspects to war reporters, ultranationalists, and military commanders. The disconnect between Gerasimov's hybrid warfare in the information space and a growing ...
2023-02-19 10:49:13 +0000 UTC
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This is Report 304 and is 57 pages.
What's the big story? PMC Wagner captures Paraskoviivka, north of Bakhmut (mostly), while Ukrainian forces continue to push south from Ivanivske. The subplot to this story is Russian forces didn't advance anywhere else and Ukraine is pushing back in Luhansk.
The second story? There is so muc...
2023-02-18 12:19:28 +0000 UTC
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Russian cruise missiles from strategic and tactical aviation and the Black Sea Fleet are incoming toward Ukraine. Vitaly Kim, Mykolaiv Oblast Administrative and Military Governor, reported.
We don't know how many launched. Russia deployed three surface frigates and a Kilo-class submarine with the potential capacity to launch up to 28 Kalibr cruise missiles, which moved straight to launch positions. Russian Bear Net went active about an hour ago.
The Situation Report will lik...
2023-02-18 07:09:28 +0000 UTC
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Wagner released a picture of four mercenaries in a tightly framed shot in the south-central part of Paraskoviivka. We have no reason not to believe this was part of a larger advance.
The map was updated.
To the south, Ukrainian forces are slowly pushing back PMC Wagner trench by trench and treeline by treeline. Ukrainian forces are attacking at night using DRG tactics. There have been a couple of claims of bayonet attacks in some of the night raids.
Bakhmut is becoming a tal...
2023-02-17 20:49:52 +0000 UTC
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I'm not feeling well - at all, and I've beaten my post-COVID PEM, and I don't want to go backward. Last night's air raid had me almost to an all-nighter, and I'm leveled.
Quick summary.
Kharkiv
Dovrichna Operational Area - Russians stepped up their attack on Hryanykivka - the situation is described as "difficult." Kharkiv was hit with multiple S-300 antiaircraft missiles again.
Luhansk
Most fighting is in the Kreminna Operational Area from Ploshch...
2023-02-17 04:51:53 +0000 UTC
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I'm reading that Russian troops are in Paraskoviivka!
The green marker is where they were geolocated versus our map, which moved the lines further north and east (away from the center of Paraskoviivka) yesterday.
They're right where the information, mostly from Russian sources and supported by terrain analysis, indicated they would be. They're slightly behind the FLOT, which indicates the line of conflict is placed perfectly. While other analysts are recording this as an "advance,...
2023-02-16 21:55:59 +0000 UTC
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Are you new to our Patreon? You need to click on the link to download the PDF attachment.
This is Report 303 and is 58 pages.
What's the big story? Another missile attack rocks Ukraine.
The second story? Russia's major offensive is approaching the end of its second week, and there isn't much to show.
The Malcontent News Russia Ukraine War Podcast for yesterday is available on:
- Our hosting website ...
2023-02-16 12:39:40 +0000 UTC
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Very short Flash Report but an important one.
- Geolocated video shows that the Georgia Legion is much further south and east of Stupochky than anyone thought - there is a lot of snow, so we know it is current - we've adjusted the map and pushed Russian forces further east
- We don't have high confidence t...
2023-02-15 20:36:27 +0000 UTC
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Are you new to our Patreon? You need to click on the link to download the PDF attachment.
This is Report 302 and is 40 pages.
What's the big story? Ukrainian forces are pushing back southwest of Bakhmut, and PMC Wagner's Yevgeny Prigozhin validated our analysis from yesterday. He also has a bad month as his forces get smaller while Ukrainian troop presence in Bakhmut is increasing - along with artillery support. Sa...
2023-02-15 09:56:04 +0000 UTC
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If you're unfamiliar with the situation, here is a quick timeline.
On the evening of February 3, in East Palestine, Ohio, a 3,660 meter (12,000 foot) long Norfolk Southern Railroad train pulling 150 cars derailed. Fifty cars were impacted, including 20 carrying an array of hazardous chemicals, some extremely toxic and all highly flammable. An additional 10 to 20 cars carried less toxic materials, such as plastic pellets, but are also highly flammable. About two hours after the derailmen...
2023-02-14 22:56:14 +0000 UTC
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If you click through, the tweet is a video clip of the PMC Wagner Group Su-24 that was hit by Ukrainian air defense that was able to Return to Base (RTB). We learned a couple of things.
- The plane did not crash, and the aircrew almost certainly is ready to fly additional sorties if another airframe is available.
- The plane is not "already being repaired," as Prigozhin claimed.
- If you're wondering why the aircraft is being evaluated on the ramp and not in a hangar, ...
2023-02-14 21:33:51 +0000 UTC
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This is Report 301 and is 48 pages. Thank you for 1,000+ Patreons. Onward and upward to 2,000 and wow - we can pay the bills. That's not snark, it's a relief to be almost half-way there!
What's the big story? It's day ten of Russia's big offensive and right now, it's not going well for Russia.
The sec...
2023-02-14 10:55:09 +0000 UTC
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PMC Wagner channels are in meltdown over the Russian Ministry of Defense Morning Report.
"In the Donetsk direction, the volunteers of the assault detachments, with fire support from the rocket troops and artillery of the "Southern" group of troops, liberated the settlement of Krasnaya Gora of the Donetsk People's Republic."
PMC Wagner captured Krasna Hora three days ago, and after repeatedly minimizing Wagner's role, Prigozhin is back on...
2023-02-13 23:31:44 +0000 UTC
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This satellite image is also from DeepState and is from February 11. Russian forces of the 1st Army Corps have been fighting for Krasnohorivka for nine years. This is a critical location; this image with the snow shows why it is so important and why it is an impossible task for the 1st Army Corps to capture with the resources and training they have.
Just to the south of here is Avdiivka. Krasnohorivka is a dominant height on a plateau that overlooks the H-20 Highway to the east, Adviivk...
2023-02-13 21:23:28 +0000 UTC
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Yesterday we adjusted our war map based on a video from the Terra Unit and pulled the Russian advance toward Ivanivske back between 500 to 1,500 meters. DeepState shared a satellite image from February 13 that shows clearly where Russian and Ukrainian artillery strikes are landing on each other's positions and where each combatant is located.
This is the best intel we've seen in this area since mid-January. You can clearly see where the Russian and Ukrainian positions are, where no man'...
2023-02-13 19:29:11 +0000 UTC
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AC/DC sang it's a long way to the top if you want to rock and roll. It sure is the same thing if you want to create a brand, be an independent journalist, and not grow by basing your whole personality on rage farming and shock.
Today we hit 1,000 subscribers, and Alan - you're number 1,000.
Thank you!
2023-02-13 18:38:14 +0000 UTC
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This is Report 300 and is 53 pages.
What's the big story? Intense fighting continues around Bakhmut, with Ukraine holding most defensive lines, but the situation remains very fluid.
The second story? There are a lot of problems with Russia's command and control, in fighting, threats, and units refusing to fight.
The Malc...
2023-02-13 11:19:49 +0000 UTC
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The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine announced that Bakhmut would be closed to the press and civilian aid groups starting on February 13, 2023, for their safety.
There is rampant speculation that this indicates an imminent withdrawal, but there are no signs of a pullback. Russian forces control 25% to 30% of Bakhmut now. Ukraine has made some progress, or we overstated Russian gains, in the northern and northeast parts of the city. Ukrainian forces are losing ground in the e...
2023-02-13 02:06:26 +0000 UTC
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In the last four days, three Russian battalions have rioted and refused to follow orders. The first one we learned about through Russian sources is from Tuva. The second is from the Republic of Tatarstan, and the third is from Kaliningrad.
The units from Tatarstan and Kaliningrad have released public statements that tell the same story.
- They were sent to Ukraine as a territorial guard or under the promise that they would not be directly involved in the fighting
- They...
2023-02-13 01:47:05 +0000 UTC
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There is a 20-minute-long video released by the Terra Unit. The bad news is that most clips are more than 10 days old. The good news is the video does provide the first visual information that can be geolocated in this area in weeks. We know that PMC Wagner supported by Russian troops broke through the Ukrainian defenses west of Klischchiivka around January 27 and have been unable to advance for a week. We also know there were reports that Ukrainian forces pushed back up to 1000 meters south ...
2023-02-13 01:22:50 +0000 UTC
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Is it captured or not? Do Russian forces control half of it? What about "lower Bilohorivka?"
There is a video released by the Luhansk People's Republic and it's been geolocated. It is a composite video showing some half-truths. The tanks providing direct fire are in several centimeters of snow while several of the "see how good we are at war" hit clips are without snow (barren). So we know the barren clips are pre-January 28. However, there is one clip where the weather matches, althou...
2023-02-13 01:12:10 +0000 UTC
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Russia-Ukraine War Map
Linnea was sick today, and things have been intense the last week for the team. Everyone needs a good night's sleep, so it's a short summary. We declared Russia's wide-scale offensive started a week ago, and most analysts have reached the same conclusion. While Russian forces have made so...
2023-02-12 06:52:59 +0000 UTC
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Overnight we learned some things.
First, reports that the T-504 Highway Ground Line of Communication (GLOC - supply line) was not under Russian fire control. Russia hasn't been able to advance on the highway in the last week or seriously blunt the flow of traffic. It isn't a fun road to drive, but reports of it looking the the T-513 Highway at Bilohorivka in late May were highly exaggerated.
Russia came up with a solution. They destroyed the bridge that goes over the Siverskyi Don...
2023-02-11 22:00:31 +0000 UTC
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Are you new to our Patreon? You need to click on the link to download the PDF attachment.
This is Report 298 and is 52 pages.
What's the big story? Ukraine held all defensive lines in the Soledar and Bakhmut Operational Areas and pushed Russian forces back in one key area.
The second story? The drone and missile attacks could have been much worse, with Russia launching 135 munitions between kamikaze drones, cruise ...
2023-02-11 12:03:11 +0000 UTC
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Russia has launched at least 17 Iranian-sourced Shahed-136 kamikaze drones across Ukraine.
Air defense are active in Kyiv and there have been three strikes - two in Kryvyi Rih and one in Nikopol.
We know at the moment air defenses are at 11 out of 14, don't know the status on the remaining three. The chance of another round of missile attacks is high
2023-02-11 06:59:55 +0000 UTC
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Luhansk: The situation is stable in the Svatove and Kreminna Operational Areas. There are indications that Ukrainian forces took some ground back southwest of Dibrova, but we wouldn't get too excited. Fighting in the Serebryanskyy Woods is similar to the fighting in "Sherwood Forest" southwest of Izyum, only at a larger scale. Positional warfare of squad and platoon size, artillery, drones, recon in force, and position swapping.
Northeast Donetsk: The situation is stable in the Siversk ...
2023-02-11 01:40:47 +0000 UTC
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Updated from e-mail - this is Report 296 and is 54 pages.
What's the big story? Fighting expanded along the entire line of conflict, with Ukrainian forces having a much better day than yesterday.
The second story? Russian launched a large-scale missile attack during a break in the weather striking infrastructure across Ukraine...
2023-02-10 12:35:57 +0000 UTC
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We're doing a lot of geolocation right now with a flood of videos and pictures that have been released on what we can confidently say is the end of day one of the wide-scale Russian offensive. Consider this a hot take versus definitive.
Luhansk: The situation is stable in the Svatove Operational Area. In the Kreminna Operational Area, Ukraine has had success in the forests south of Kreminna, and we already made adjustments to the line of conflict. We are looking at reports that Ukrainia...
2023-02-09 23:26:21 +0000 UTC
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