Pecos Hank

2020 Storm Season Wrap Chat

Howdy gang!  be sure and follow the link to YouTube if you want to participate and see the chat.  You might need to be logged into YouTube as well. 

https://youtu.be/zCIbfZYVYj8

Live Chat Mañana - July 15, 8PM CDT

Hey gang. Lot's going on here on this end.  Shaking off the road and getting my life slowly back together. Gonna try again tonight to catch that dern comet.  Get your questions loaded and ready to fire em tomorrow.  

Last time we did this, a few of you got lost searching for the chat thread. I'm planning to post better directions this round.  In order to see the chat you need to follow the link to YouTube and you might need to be logged into YouTube to participate. &...

CHECKING IN

Hello Everyone.  Wanted to let you know I'm back south in Texas and missed the killer tornado in Minnesota. The "Twister Sisters" were on the scene and shot this INCREDIBLE video of it... 

https://youtu.be/gtso0P32NYU

Still shaking off 3 months on the road, but plan to head out this weekend to try and grab some shots of that commit Neowise (assuming it'll still be hanging around).  

NEXT WEEK...

JULY 4 - North Dakota Fireworks!

Yesterday we chased an elevated storm in four states and likely the most beautiful chase country in Tornado Alley. Initiating in NE Wyoming and tracking into SE Montana, then Western South Dakota and north into North Dakota for some pre-fireworks. 

TODAY is the last day for the Field Operations Te...

JULY 3 CHASE - Wyoming / Montana

There's a trace chance of tornadoes today in NE WY / SE MT, but a higher chance of pretty storm structures.  

Yesterday we distantly gathered around the hotel lobby TV and watched the Nat Geo documentary "Expedition Everest"  about Dr Anton & Tracie Seimon's climate work there (among others).  I'm chasing with legit rock star scientists here. 

2020-07-03 16:22:38 +0000 UTC View Post

June 29 - Montana & North Dakota

Driving like crazy trying to reach target area in time. Will update here when I can.

June 28 - IOWA

Guidance is offering a couple different stories for storm modes around 7PM or so.  I'll start with the HRRR / the one I prefer today... 

And here's the NAM NEST outflow MCV...

Either way, looks good we'll get some storms.  

FRIDAY night I got to play with the abundance of fir...

June 26 - Chasing Wisconsin?

Good morning patrons! Today I join up with Dr. Anton Seimon’s scientific field operations team again. Is I’m third in forecast command, I’m not sure where we’ll be chasing today, but will update in this thread when possible.

HEADS OR TAILS?

HEADS: At a glance, the highest supercell tornado potential appears to be near Milwaukee where surface winds are more favorable (backing) and storms could get a kick from a lake breeze before sailing into Lake Michigan. Short slow win...

June 21 Chase Forecast Cheat Sheet

Today I'll be chasing cells firing up in SW Kansas / NW OK.  Got lots of miles to commute and little time for a detailed analysis so I'm going with the HRRR reflectivity and SPC outlook overlay.  Expecting pretty high based supercell structures initially with a slim chance of tornadoes followed by storms merging into a Mesoscale Convective System (MSC) which is fancy jargon for a big surging storm complex.  I'll likely follow the MCS overnight and eat up any lightning it offers...

SONG of the MONTH - "Won't Pray Adagio"

It's difficult for me not to put this song in every storm video.  Here's an instrumental of mine from way back when.  

FREE DOWNLOAD IN ATTACHMENTS  V V V 

Last I checked, it looks like we're entering a so-so active period for storms.  It's not looking as good as June in 2014 or 2011 or 2009, but hell, I'll take the left overs this year.  

NEW VIDEO SOON MAYBE... Since the last storm binge I've been sorting, labeling and archiving this years foo...

June 9, Nebraska / Kansas

I have a confession... This is the first June tornado I’ve seen since 2014. The curse is over. There were many other ground circulations yesterday in central Nebraska bordering between large gustnadoes or weak landspouts. At one point there was some amazing structure and the Wind Breaker has now been broken in with hail dents. No broken glass though. The evening was capped off with some sparse sprite events...

2020-06-09 15:45:42 +0000 UTC View Post

June 8, Nebraska

Today looks similar to yesterday. Mixed storm modes with transient supercell structures. That sounds cooler than it is. Hoping to score that one supercell that can retain an identity long enough to drop a bending tube over open country. Currently targeting Broken Bow vacinity.

June 7 Dakotas

I just realized it’s decaf... Anyway, been awhile since I’ve seen a good ol’ 10% Significant tornado risk. I’m currently going to try and play the bottom end of that. There could be a lot of storm interactions messing up our plans, but if we can get on a discrete storm it could get pretty / scary. Will update here when I can. Good luck chasers!

6-06 SOUTH DAKOTA

My target area today is south central SD somewhere along i90. There are impressive tornado parameters today but underneath a thick bullet proof cap. If, by some mesoscale miracle the cap can break, there will be twin EF5s with rainbows at sunset over beautiful badlands and prairie where unicorns graze. Or I get a sunburn. To the west I expect a messy mostly outflow dominant squeegee to sweep across the area. Perhaps somewhere among that there will be a photogenic discrete supercell, but I’...

Green "Ghosts" published on Spaceweather.com

It's pretty exciting to see the recognition of my discovery spreading through the web.  More and more people are starting to capture ghosts and in some of the real nerdy threads, it's all the rage.  I hope you guys feel that you played a small part in this discovery by enabling me, discussing and participating in this ghost story.   I dreamed, but I never thought I'd actually be able to contribute a discover to this beautiful world.  Thank you guys for this! 

May 27 chase - TX Hill Country

Here's a little something that drifted by Houston last night...

TODAY is a strange set up around Austin TX vicinity.  I'm not sure what to make of it, but we finally have some decent 500mb flow, though it's at a wonky angle. Low level flow is a little weak but perhaps all the wonk will yield something unusual.  That's me being optimistic. 

Here's the SPC tornado risk

...

NEW VIDEO Tonight

FINALLY, after about 12 months of research and production we are ready to upload our TLE video explaining the science of sprites, jets and ghosts.  Paul Smith has shared extensive archives of the greatest sprite and secondary jet captures I've ever seen in this educational piece.  I used some of your money to license a few gigantic jets from Frankie Lucena to help give a more thorough explanation. We also have a contribution from storm chaser Scott Curren and lightning scientist Tom...

May 24 “tornado cannot be ruled out” 😂

Just gonna try and get lightning and pretty animals. Who knows what wonders might crawl out.

YESTERDAY was comical and beautiful.

Isolated storm was moving northeast at 20 knots. I positioned downstream 20 miles and waited for it to arrive, but it stopped over a road void. Took a sketchy ranch road toward it but the maps failed to mention the gate half way down. Took another ranch road toward it, but the maps failed to mention the gate down that one too. During all the backtrack...

MAY 23 Chase Target

Currently Targeting the Lubbock vicinity today. SPC has lower confidence in tornado potential than I do hatching a 2% risk. Maybe I’m feeling optimism after yesterday’s production. Though I chose the wrong cell, several patrons, Jackson, Stephen Callet and Petra scored a classic tornado near Bellevue TX last night.

Congrats Petra on bagging your first tornado!

Good luck to those chasing the High Plains! Good luck to those chasing in Illinois!

Today’s Chase - Dallas Cowboys or Kansas City Chiefs?

Are they still called the Chiefs or are they the Raiders or Colts or something now?

I drove up to Guthrie OK last night to make a play near Kansas City. Yesterday’s MCS drove further south than anticipated changing the field. New game plan is to punt on KC and tackle storms near DFW. If KC can get a bump in cape, we could see a photogenic tornado there. I’m betting on a wet and nasty touchdown in Texas.

TONIGHT on PBS - Mr. Tornado

Hope everyone is free to watch the Dr. Ted Fujita documentary "Mr. Tornado" tonight on PBS. Here in CDT it airs at 8pm. Be sure and check your local listings though for times. 

STORMS THIS WEEK:

Last I checked yesterday, models have the 500mb flow much weaker Thursday and Friday than previously forecast. If this verifies we'll likely have another round of weak unorganized storms with perhaps that one or two mesoscale accident tornadoes.  Not sure if I'm going... Will let...

Free Photo of the (every other) Month

This is probably my best photo of a red sprite event thus far.  You can download a high resolution version of it in the attachments and print it, use it as wallpaper, or a floor mat. 

I'm going to attempt to finish the TLE video explaining red sprites before heading out again to chase this week, but I've been saying that since December.  Right now it looks like there's a window for supercells Wednesday in the Dakota's, but I think I'm going to spare myself that drive. &nb...

May 15 Target - Red River

Meager tornado food today. Perhaps a malnourished tornado will manifest in some mesoscale accident, but that’s long odds I’m thinking. So today I’m going to enjoy the Plains, look for some animals on less traveled roads and enjoy freedom. After a large squall organizes, there could be some great opportunities for SLCs and anvil crawlers. (Y’all remember what SLCs are right?)

Have a great weekend gang!

May 14 KS/MO chase

Topeka vicinity is more current thinking for today. Expecting mixed modes and mess but perhaps that May magic will arrive and prove me wrong.

Yesterday I was bouncing around a lot with little time to update. I’ll try to update my where-abouts in this thread.

I haven’t looked at the situation further downstream as it’s out of my range. If you’re chasing, post your thoughts as well and good luck!

May 13 Chase TX/OK

Currently expecting several storms to go outflow dominant an hour or two after initiation around 4pm. Slim chance of tornadoes, but maybe we’ll pick the right storm or some mesoscale accident will occur for a long track cyclic supercell dropping a dozen photogenic tornadoes. It’s May. We can dream.

I’ll be toting a secret with me the next 3 days. I’ll see if I can get permission to share it with you guys. Will post updates when possible in this thread.

SONG of the MONTH - "Monster Show Instrumental"

You come out of the old brick buildings, banners and small town bustle to see the mothership hovering above the farmland.  Cue this song... (free download in the attachments)

THIS WEEK

It's looking like a week of active storms.  Not ideal tornado setups, but better than polar vortex blue skies.  I'm currently planning on chasing east Texas lightning tomorrow evening and then heading into the Plains for a chance of storms Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.  

...

New tornado pictures sneak peekaloo

I'm scramblin' To finish a new tornado video before May hits.  Oh wait, it is May :P 

There is a lot of footage from the Madill OK tornado (4-22-20) I haven't uploaded yet. This edit will have some maps and a few thoughts but for the most part It's long stable cuts of the morphing tornado. 

Below is the mesocyclone and developing tornado against a clear blue sky... 

2020-05-07 23:10:05 +0000 UTC View Post

Today’s target area - Currently Tulsa vicinity.

Not anticipating much of a tornado show ATM, but that could change. Nice lightning is a good bet.

I attempted to be a little neater in my spaghetti art for you guys.

RED- 500mb winds

BLACK INK - 850 mb winds

YELLOW - surface temperatures F

GREEN - dew points

BLUE MARKER - 700mb temps C

PURPLE - Surface Based CAPE

RED X - current target area

Makes sense right?

Lets roll

LIVE CHAT SATURDAY NIGHT 7pm CDT

Heads up.  Let's do a live chat Saturday night.  Got lots to talk about with you guys.  Had a couple long phone conversations with the Laurel Mississippi tornado victim James.  Let's talk about that, the forecast for the next week or so, The NWS tornado damage survey toolkit, and a weird lightning bolt I caught on camera a couple nights ago.  

This photo was taken of the WindBreaker by another storm chaser after the Madill OK tornado as we were zooming to get ba...