The Long Investor

GOLD - SAFE HAVEN -

Gold like Silver was caught in the sell off last week but we can see that it was just a retest of the First Target at $3000 which was also a retest of the 50 Day MA

Many took advantage of this retest for both Gold and Silver

We held strong with Silver and kept to our stratetgy

Gold and Silver rising is smart money telling us that they are concerned

The longer this tariff mess continues, the more damage will be done.

$OXY

$OXY has dropped down to its 0.618 Fib at $34 that we spoke about last week.

Oil prices dropped during the week when Wall St announced that they expect a recession in the US this year, a number of institutions have indicated that ongoing tariffs will result in this.

$OXY now has a PE of 14 and a FWD PE of 9 and healthy margins, so it is being brought down by macro influences.

$OXY will need to confirm support here above $34 to consider adding here, the downside risk will be ...

$TLT

Bonds took a very abrupt U turn since Friday, at the same time Yields started rising....Large amounts of Treasury Bills are clearly selling off, the price action has fallen from $94 to $85 on this reaction and the price action has managed to hold on the last Fib support level on the 0.887 Fib

$TLT is very weak here and a lower low below the yellow support line and the bear case is triggered and there is a risk that the price can drop down to the October '23 level at $82.

Yields ar...

$DXY

There has been no changes to this chart since I first started to share this nearly 3 years ago,

Price has rejected at the top yellow resistance lines, where the amber Fib levels are, now the price has dropped below the 50 and 200 Day MA's and sitting exactly at the 0.618 Fib now.

I suspect a lower low will be made next to the 0.78 Fib at $94.

Why does this matter?

An increased $DXY pushes exports higher and this can cause inflation to go higher, interest rates higher ...

$ASTS

Price has managed to stay on the outside of the descending wedge and hold on the 0.5 fib at $20, which has been a support level since October '24 too.

The risk here is that the price is still below the 50 and 200 Day MA and the blue support line....I think the concern here is that although $ASTS has a strong moat, it is not producing meaningful revenue yet and with the market delicate, then this is considered risky at the minute

That being said, the price action is showing that bu...

US 10 YR

At what point does the pressure become too high for the Trump Admin that they must strike a deal with China?

We know that the Bond market is something they are fixated on and believe it did force them to make the 90 Day Postponement deal during the week.

Now it looks like China are selling US Treasury Bills and this will push the 10 YR higher and it is already at 4.4% now

Price is above the 50 and 200 Day MA and above the wedge top line, so the trend is to the upside.

...

$HIMS

Another difficult day for the market but another retest of the 200 Day MA from above and holding

The wild swings we see from $HIMS are almost custom at this stage and as always we watch for support and resistance levels getting tested.

The Blue support line was not needed for a test either yesterday which is also a good sign.

My belief is that the market will bounce for at least a Wave B bounce and we have seen that $HIMS reacts very well to a green market, so I would expect...

$PFE - TOP 10 -

Dropped another -4% yesterday with the market sell off and this pushed the Dividend Yield up to +7.97% now and the price is still at the confluence level of the 0.78 Fib and the 30 Year yellow support line.

We can't rule out the downside risk of this dropping to the 0.887 Fib at $16 but what we can say is that this is extremely undervalued right now, with a very attractive dividend and looks very cyclical....meaning when the reversal comes it will likely continue its run back above $66 ...

$SPOT

I am watching for a rejection here at the 50 WMA as the price bounces back up to this level for a test from below.

The 50 WMA is at $581 and came within touching distance two days ago when the market roared back.

A rejection here and Wave B could be complete for us and we get a further pull back to complete Wave C

Paying attention to the 200 WMA and below the 0.38 Fib level at $431.

None of these tariffs I suspect will encourage people to cancel their subscriptions but...

SILVER - TOP 10 - SAFE HAVEN -

Almost a +10% bounce now since the flush down last week where Silver got dragged into the sell off but recovered immediately, this also aligns with my theory that it was only sold to cover margin calls and was not part of the market sell off

As it stayed green yesterday when the market was cooling off too.

Price is back above the 200 Day MA, no retest of this level yet at $30.85, so a retest next and holding is also another buy signal.

Holding here and I believe the price ca...

$BTC TOP 20

Why hasn't $BTC dropped down that extra $1000 to the amber 0.38 Fib at $73,369?.....because a test of this level will mean an infringement of the high in March 2024, meaning the ABC correction would be confirmed....but that has not happened yet and it is almost exactly what happened with $SPY.

Amazing to see two completely different asset classes which are strongly linked behaving this way.

The bullish meaning behind this is that $BTC can still make an ATH before an ABC correction...

$NVO

+4.4% today in the PM and doing its best to hold onto the 0.65 Fib support level at $61.66 and attempting to recapture the 0.618 Fib at $65.91.

The harsh sell off is down to a number of factors I believe, declining sales lately and the tariff war but that does not mean that Wave A should be this low, so the short but valid rise in Jan and Feb is looking like Wave B for me, shown above.

So I think $NVO is looking at completing Wave C now but still needs to confirm support.

Fu...

$SPY TOP 20

The price action today is the ultimate mixed signaled formation:

Bullish indicators:

• Higher high and a higher lows are seen now since $481

• Waves are overlapping but this can be seen at the start of a new impulse wave (Subwave 1 of Wave 5) and it is called a leading diagonal (Lesson 4)

• Still a cushion above the invalidation level at $480

Bearish indicators:

• Only 3 waves so far are clear and one pull back, we need ...

  2025-04-10 21:04:16 +0000 UTC View Post

$NKE TOP 10 & TOP 20

With the strong sell off today, it is looking like a lower low will be made next and the 0.78 Fib at $46 is looking very obvious for a test next with this current set up.

We can see that there was a battle on the 0.618 Fib for 9 months since the middle of 2024 so we know the price action respects the support levels for a battle.

Would a hold at $46 attract you to buy?

It would for me.

$AAPL TOP 20

$AAPL's pull back is looking standard so far and moving down through the green fib support levels searching for support

Remember $AAPL has already pulled back more than others and went below its own 200 WMA.

I believe Wave A is complete here and we should expect Wave B next, if the market for some reason loses its $480 level which would be a massive show of weakness after yesterday's bounce then $AAPL can go down to its red line at $162.

Right now, we are watching for a 3 w...

HSI

HSI has bounced on its 200 Day MA as has $BABA and both of these charts continue to be in sync.

We can also see that the HSI held support on the 200 Day MA in early Jan and nounced very aggressively, almost +25% in 2 months.

I think there is optimism that the Chinese govt will step in now and announce a stimulus measure to safeguard the economy for at least the next 90 days and that buys them time and leverage.

I did add $BABA yesterday at $102.

$PYPL TOP 20

$PYPL has slowly pulled back today with the market and we are looking for a higher low to come in.

The 0.78 Fib at $59.69 seems the obvious point right now.

Price has just dropped below the 50 MA on the 1hr chart so the pull back is still continuing

But again I must say, at this price, I believe $PYPL right now is an excellent long term buy and hold.

$KO TOP 10

$KO has also moved well this week and although it got caught up in the market weakness, it maintained its structure and the pull back to the 200 Day MA, the 0.618 fib at $66 and the blue support line did it's job and held.

Price is back above the 50 Day MA and there are not many positions above both their 50 and 200 Day MA's right now.

Wave 5 has not changed either with at PT at $77

+3% dividend here too.

$CELH

Doesn't care what's happening with the market

It does what it wants.

Higher high now and moving towards our Wave 3 target at $46.

$QQQ TOP 20

If you are having difficulty understanding the market, don't worry, you are not alone, it has been very complex.

The two big surprises this week were:
1. How the $SPY managed to hold within $1 of infringing upon the Top of the 2022 high

2. How the $QQQ DID drop below its 2021 high at $408, so the Contrarian view can not be valid here, it breaks the theory.

This is the first time in a number of years where there has been a shift in counts between the two.

But this is...

$NVDA

Although I am a fan of $NVDA and hold a position, it is not new for $NVDA to have strong powerful days like yesterday.

This is the 4th time this has happened since August.

But this one was certainly the fastest.

What do we know so far:

• Price is still below the 50 and 200 Day MA and the 50 Weekly MA.

• Price is still below the white fib Wave B range

• Price has only bounced in 1 wave so far, we need to see at least 3.

• We ...

  2025-04-10 12:30:34 +0000 UTC View Post

$JASMY

This little rascal has been showing some signs of waking up lately, after finding support on the last Fib support level at the 0.887 level.

Still in the channel and has been noticeably beaten down and we can see the price retested the 0.618 Fib and the 0.78 Fib in Feb and March from below which caused the price to continue to drop

Now we are watching for signs of a reversal here.

A break out of the channel and we will likely see a break above the 50 Day MA to retest the 0.78...

$HIMS

Finished up +13% yesterday and showed that many buyers have been waiting in the shadows ready to step in when some certainty arrived......certainty in the way of pausing tariffs for 90 days.

This has been important because crucial support levels have held so far and now we have a higher high and a higher low now too.

Before the postponement announcement came out yesterday, I uploaded this chart and explained what I want to see next and that still carries forward for today, I want ...

$BABA TOP 10 & TOP 20

I added $BABA and up +5% since that add and it is one of only a few stocks green today.

I have a strategy and I am strict with it.

People see price actions on the day, I see the big picture.

• Fundamentally Undervalued

• Technically Undervalued and back to its 200 WMA

• Growing margins

• Protected by a country that wants to stimulate its economy (which the US can not do right now during this trade war)

• Revenue is n...

  2025-04-10 11:10:52 +0000 UTC View Post

$AMZN TOP 20

$AMZN for me was the clear low risk buy over the last week and this is why I added twice

I have said that I believe it is the strongest Mega Cap and if any company was going to recover then this would be it for me, likewise there was no clear Wave B bounce yet so we bought with the anticipation that we would at least get a Wave B bounce and that is what we are getting at the very least now.

Price jumped +12% yesterday which means this is moving very quickly, which aligns with how ...

$SPY - CONTRARIAN VIEW -

We will never know what forces were at play to stop the price within $1 from invalidating the Contrarian View, but it happened and what a sight it was.

Trump absolutely needed to send that message out at that exact time today in order to save the market, it was looking in trouble and with CPI tomorrow, there was a real concern that $480 would have been infringed upon.

But the price bounced a whopping +10.5% after this postponement announcement and there is a massive cushion now to...

$CELH

No changes, onwards here to the Wave 3 target at $46.

Incredible that $CELH was able to hold above the 200 Day MA all week, in spite of clear market weakness

But remember, it had already completed its ABC correction down to $21....it was not in the same cycle as the market.

Impulse wave now looks very strong.

$VSCO

Also up +18% and has bounced from $13 to $20 after finding support on the blue support line which was also the support line in October 2023.

I think there is a route back to the 200 Day MA at $28 here at the very least but we need to see the start of an impulse wave forming, so higher highs and higher lows are needed

That being said, I believe $VSCO is undervalued, so a higher low next with at target at $17.59 would be a nice buy signal once it holds.

$AMD TOP 20

Another example why we don't sell out of undervalued positions when the market pulls back and up now +22% and reacting very strongly today.

Back above the blue support line too at $92.70

If $AMD can build a base support level here then I would expect $AMD to return back to its 200 WMA at $115.

As we know, the 200 WMA is a magnet, on both sides.

$SOFI

Up +21% now and back above its 200 Day MA

This is why we hold positions when they are undervalued and already looking like they have completed their ABC correction, something I spoke about in the update yesterday.

Price has so far held above the 0.618 Fib at $9.68 and above the 200 Day MA

If you feel you have missed this, you have not, it is just the initial run (wave)

A hold above the 200 Day MA at the green line at $11.68 is the low risk entry to add.

I believe...