The Long Investor

$BUD - WATCHLIST -

$BUD has now bounced from $45 to $63 in 2025 in a serious show of strength against the market but if we look at the chart we can see that $BUD has not been following the market for the last 6 years and has been consolidating between the blue line range since 2019.

So it is not a surprise to see $BUD going against the market now, especially since its fundamentals are still very strong.

Two big levels for me to see is $BUD holding above the 200 WMA at $59 and breaking out of the yel...

$NVDA

Big win this week for $NVDA is staying above $100 and out of the red danger zone, a lower low below the Wave 4 level at $92 and we have to rule out this being an impulse wave and it can only be in a corrective wave now.

Waves in Wave 5's can overlap each other but they CAN NOT go lower than the previous wave low, so once an impulse wave becomes invalid, we can therefore confirm the ABC correction.

There is a large bull flag forming but likewise there is a death cross between the 5...

$SPY TOP 20

Ok the plan for the day:

So far we have a hold on the 0.236 Fib at $550, this tells us that the market has identified the first large corrective wave fib support level, meaning they are aware that the corrective wave is possible.

BEAR CASE: A harsher than expected Tariff announcement and a retest of the $550 level is likely going to happen again and if this level is lost and a lower low is made again below $547, then we must expect a drop down to the 0.38 Fib at $512, which I bel...

SILVER - TOP 10 - SAFE HAVEN -

I am sharing the larger time frame here so you can see how I believe Silver is moving for the next 2 years or so.

Primary Wave 3 can bring us to the ATH line at $49 and Wave 5 can go as high as $65 but we need to give this time.

We know how fast Gold has been moving and Silver but let's not forget about how large these assets are, if they reach their targets sooner than expected then this is good news but safe havens are expected to move slow and keep tight to their moving average...

$HIMS

Liberation day is upon us, Trump is expected to speak in the Rose Garden at 3pm EST, so we almost have a full day of volatility before he speaks.

Anything in the PM now or before this announcement will likely be irrelevant except for people being concerned about what he could say

What is clear is that Trump has told the market for some time that he will be making impactful trade policies today, so let's see how much is factored into the market at this stage.

A harsh decline...

$IQ

Has held above the 0.618 Fib so far and now back above the 0.5 Fib and 50 Day MA at $2.25.

Another Chinese position that has got the set up now to go higher

The 200 Day MA is the last hurdle at $2.60, a flip of this level to support and the 1.618 Fib is the next target at $3.50 for Subwave 3.

$PDD - WATCHLIST -

Holding above the 50 and 200 Day MA's now and we can see that the 50 Day is about to cross the 200 Day for a Golden Cross, this could be a positive bullish catalyst.

The set up is there in a bullish wedge too and it is in the right sector.

If the price can continue to hold above $122 then I expect a bounce up to the wedge top line next at $142, holding above this level and I expect a move up to the top blue line at $212.

$PDD and $BIDU both look good here.

$TSLA TOP 20

Market is not showing much concern for $TSLA ahead of the tariff announcement tomorrow and something we need to remember is that $TSLA has already fell below its 200 WMA and has completed an ABC pull back for me.

This is a lot steeper than any of the other Mega Caps right now so they are not all in the same count, $TSLA has arguably completed its pull back.

Price action has also found support on the small white fib levels too this week and is back at the larger 0.618 Fib now at $2...

$HOOD

So far support has been found between the 0.618 - 0.78 and bouncing very well after finding a higher low support level.

I would like to see the price action hold above the 50 and 200 MA on the 1hr chart at $45 to confirm a reversal here.

If this can be done then I would expect a move back up to the blue line again at $66.

Remember, $HOOD can benefit from a bull and bear market due to the amount of buying and selling activity.

They also continue to expand their TAM eit...

$AMZN TOP 20

$AMZN fell as low as $184, with the $181 level being the standard Wave A support level to complete at.

We are now back above the blue line and the market appears to be reacting positively now

We will see whether or not this is the market already factoring in Trumps announcement tomorrow

But as a precaution we could treat this bounce as a Wave B bounce and I have added in the amber fibs levels to reflect this.

As I said at the weekend, Wave B could go back to $220, so I...

$UAL

Airlines are all taking a hit at the moment, a combination of less traveling between the US and Canada, a reduction in government travel, a weakening outlook and a potential reversal of oil prices have spooked this sector.

$DAL was one of my best performers in 2023-2024 and I would happily add this position once it is lower

$UAL is still (just about) holding onto its impulse wave but a drop below $63 and we can no longer consider the impulse wave valid as it infringes upon the to...

$ONON - WATCHLIST -

Continues to drop and this is something I am happy about as we have waiting patiently here for an entry since the price ran strong leading into the end of 2024 and we refused to chase this.

Price is dropping nicely to the standard pull back level at the 0.618 Fib at $39 now.

Let's wait for a test, a show of support and be greedy for confirmation, then we have our Buy Signal and I will share when I have added if we can achieve this.

$NIO TOP 20

We are watching for the test of support now on the $3.60 level, this will be the 4th test of support since April last year, there was a positive response yesterday after the first test again and green again in the PM.

There is clearly a lot of work here to be done by the bulls.

I am holding but I feel the concern.

A double blow of a bad miss on earnings and a private offering is a lot of pressure on the share price over a short period of time.

That being said, $NIO wi...

$ACHR

We are looking for a higher low now from $ACHR, price has been working its way down the smaller green fib levels since the market pull back and a retest of the larger white 0.618 Fib at $6.55 is looking like a strong possibility

This is a common sight at the moment across a number of charts, a second test for a double bottom.

A lower low can be made here too and test the very obvious 200 Day MA just slightly lower at $5.88.

A break below this level would give me concern but ...

US 10 YEAR

The 10 YR did drop yesterday when the market opened weak which is a good sign but the price action is still at the important confluence level of the 200 Day MA, the 0.5 Fib and the wedge breakout level....so this tells us that the direction has not been taken yet....which is not a surprise, it means that the market needs more information and that aligns with us waiting to see what Trump will announce tomorrow..

If the 10 YR drops, the market will pressure will ease but a higher 10 YR wi...

$CELH - WATCHLIST -

Continues to perform very well and green again in the PM.

Price managed to hold above the 200 Day MA to finish the day yesterday, a clear show of strength and did not partake in the market rollercoaster ride.

Once the price continues to hold above the 200 Day MA then I believe Wave 3 will hit at the 1.618 Fib at $46.

$OXY

Energy positions are starting to get a lot of attention right now as some are commenting that there is a potential energy crisis on the horizon, this may be what Buffett has been anticipating and why he was still a buyer of $OXY while selling out of his other larger holdings in $AAPL and $BAC

A lot of the decisions Buffett has made over the last 18 months have so far turned out to be the right decision and $BRK.B is a clear outlier against the market.

I would also expect him to ...

$BTC TOP 20

$BTC is below the 200 Day MA but we must observe that there is a higher high and higher low recorded here and another test of the 200 Day MA is looking likely here next.

This is also at the 0.38 Fib at $86.3k.

$BTC was performing relatively well against the market but dropped down over the weekend.

If $BTC can retest its 200 Day MA then I would expect the same from the market too again

We shared at the weekend that it is common to see a second retest of the 200 Day MA...

$HIMS

$HIMS had a positive response on the 0.65 Fib yesterday at $27.30 and had bounced back up to $30 during the day, from -6.5% down to +3% at one stage.

Price has also been moving in the PM too, also up +5% at one stage and now flat.
I expect more volatility in the market today as we prepare for Trumps Tariff announcements tomorrow.

He did hint that they may not be as harsh as expected but he has been labeling this day as his 'liberation' day, so there are mixed messages here. 2025-04-01 12:30:18 +0000 UTC View Post

$MARA

$MARA has not been able to hold in the 15 month channel and has also rejected under the 0.618 Fib too and made a lower low.

The next support level in play is therefore the 0.78 Fib at $9.62

$BTC losing its 200 Day MA is likely the cause of support being lost here

Miners need $BTC to complete Wave A at least to recover some losses but this is not a good looking sector right now.

$BTI- SAFE HAVEN - WATCHLIST -

This chart has not changed in 2 years in here.

Brought to your attention on the way down in 2023 to the X target and guided higher for Wave Y to $47 and this is working out very well.

+13% YTD performance and a +7.3% dividend, this was also short listed for our Top 10 list for 2025.

Price action continues to looks strong and moving higher towards $47.

Those who are still in here should continue to hold and enjoy the dividends too.

$BRK.B

Buffett spends the majority of his time thinking: How can I not lose money in the market?

Whereas the majority of people think, how can I get the most out of the market?

Buffetts style will never make him +100% gains in a year but he will always have his performance and legacy protected by taking his approach, he gains from compounding returns each year and not by taking high risks.

The Wave 5 target can still run up to the 1.618 Fib here at $587 but he himself has said th...

$DELL

$DELL has not been able to find support on the 0.5 Fib at $96 and is moving down to its lower 0.618 Fib at $77 now having rejected under the 0.5 Fib and now making a lower low today.
The 200 Day MA is also moving up to the 0.618 Fib at $77 too, making this an important confluence level and more undervalued right now compared to $NVDA, the leader in this sector.

$DELL at $77 would be on my radar to add once support is found.

$SPY TOP 20

Eventful day today, a flush down at the open to a lower low, RSI dropped again to the 32 level having bounced out of the oversold range last week and as the day went on, the price action recovered and bounced back above the larger 0.236 Fib at $550.

The best case scenario here is that we see another retest of the 200 Day MA this week but with the 'liberation' day on Weds, it's difficult to get very excited about this possibility, unless negotiations are resolved before then...which I fi...

$SQQQ

Just a 5 month before and after comparison of the $SQQQ.

I have no further comments on this and don't recommend buying the $SQQQ.

$CELH

This is impressive here from $CELH and there are no changes to the chart but we do have an outlier.

Truist raised their PT from $35 to $45 today and we know this is just the Wave 3 target....so amazing work from Truist, really earning their 2% fees and 20% fees on profits this year with this one....I kid.

What's most impressive here is that the price action is up +7.6% and has broke above the 200 Day MA, a hold now above $35 and $46 is next for me at the 1.618 fib for Wave 3.

$BIDU

Ok so far the pull back today has been standard for $BIDU and support has been tested on the 200 Day MA at $90.

This is a nice set up so far and between $BIDU and $PYPL, these are the only two I would consider adding at the moment.....and $HIMS once support is confirmed.

I would not like to see a break lower than the 0.78 Fib at $88.30, this would imply weakness for me, especially if there is a break below the MA's and rejecting underneath these MA's too.

However, $BIDU is u...

$TLT - SAFE HAVEN -

$TLT has been moving quite well since the start of the year and although it is only up +3.5% it is beating the market and offers a +3.7% dividend which is attractive to conserve your capital.

Pull back lately has come down to the 0.5 Fib and the 50 Day MA and has so far bounced on market weakness.

A break above the 50 blue and 200 Day at $92.50 and holding, then the upward trend is confirmed, we have Wave C with a PT of $110.

$NVDA

We need $NVDA to recover but it is struggling and the price action is also down to its early March lows and on the cusp of making a lower low, which confirms the downward trend.

We also have a clear rejection at the 50 WMA and the yellow trend line which is not a good sign.

A drop into the red line range and the impulse wave is in danger, so I have added the amber fib levels to show where the ABC correction can fall to.....and the green circle is the sweet spot for us to add HEAVY...

$ETH

Clear rejection under the 0.618 Fib at $2100 and the wedge trend line and like the $BTC is on track to make a lower low.

Next support after the 0.618 Fib is the 0.78 Fib which is $1568.

Standard pull back level is always the 0.618 Fib and anything below this is weakness for me, and we know this is true because we are well under the 200 WMA now too.

I do not sell positions under the 200 WMA and if the second largest crypto coin wants to stay under its 200 WMA so I can accumul...