2 Week Notice - Magic Market Updates

It has been a while since i typed up a post like this.

I feel the shift in the Magic The Gathering market is important enough to make this post.

I am on the fence about offering another sale for Ravnica Collector boxes. I will make that decision next month. The amount of patrons still privately messaging and purchasing Ravnica Collectors is very high. Approx 12-18 boxes a day selling.

I will be removing the COLLECTOR Boxes from the monthly patron list at the end of the month. I plan on keeping the remaining sealed product for long term and box opening videos.

2 Week Notice - Wilds of Eldraine Collectors

2 Week Notice - Lord of the Rings Special / Collector

2 Week Notice - Ixalan Collector

I wanted to give patrons a 2 week notice on these items since they are selling daily.

I cannot restock any of these items. I am not sure what is causing the shift in Magic right now.

This is the first time in over a year i have seen bullish upticks across the board in Reserved list cards and NEW sealed magic.

My theory is a combination of things are happening right now. I believe extreme amounts of people are buying SINGLE cards and pushing up single prices and its spilling into sealed product.

I also believe the uptick in Crypto/Bitcoin is having an impact.

Lastly, i believe the "smart money" and larger whales are making moves and building positions.

 I noticed the longer term patrons have started buying larger orders again over the last 60 days.

In the last 60 days, i have received the LEAST amount of contacts to sell vintage magic collections compared to the last 2 years. Its a little early to use this metric but it is a positive data point.

Most data points on the reserved list show an attempt at a "BOTTOM" in November of 2023 around the "fear" of black fridays and amazon dumps.

Everything from Revised dual lands + buylist prices + lions eyes + null rods + urza's + have seen a consistant uptick for the last 90 days.

What is interesting is the RESERVED LIST cards NOT seeing an uptick are sets like Arabian nights and most Antiq/Legends/Dark era (1994) cards. Most of these remain flat to negative since Magic 30th.

This leaves me to believe...once again, this is a PLAYER led market shift (commander/EDH) and a different type of buyer compared to the "reserved list buyout" era of 2018.

Back to "NEW MAGIC"

We have multiple new sets with inverted EV.

- Phyrexia All will be One

- Jumpstart 2022

- March of the Machines

I am selling around 200+ Magic Draft boxes per WEEK with no signs of slowing down, in fact it appears to be increasing week over week.

The following are all Collector boxes that have a high probability of breaking all time highs

- Ravnica Remastered (yea...i know....hillarious)  .....laugh it up

- Ixalan

- Lord of the Rings Special/Collector

- Phyrexia

All of these Collector boxes have under 100 boxes on the market before a large price swing occurs

~ Absolutly shocking price increases ~

- Crimson Vow Collectors (63 boxes until over $200+ a box) ....lol

- Commander Masters SET/DRAFT +40% increase from lows

- Baldurs Gate Collector +40% increase from lows (120 boxes until $200+)

~ Conclusion ~

If this market shift "HOLDS" over the next couple months....this is a very big deal.

We need a solid 6 months of stability and growth to "break a bear market".

When this magic market shifts, there is going to be a tremendous of amount of Wealth transfer that will take place.

Unlike previous market cycles, this was the worst. I have never seen a modern era where all LGS's and collector/investor unloaded everything and give up.

This is going to cause a faster rate of change on many products recovering upwards and a lot of "resistence" from peoples emotions. 

Simply put, its going to be tough to accept the positive news for many people.

I feel a positive market will be met with negative disbelief online.

Most people do not hold product anymore to sell "into the strength". This should accelerate the uptick once momentum builds.

The behavior of other content creators and social media Timmy's becomes very predictable over a long period of time.

2024 is my 9th year on Youtube.

2024 is my 8th year on Patreon.

According to another patron who ran a data scrape, there are now 1,266 negative "RUDY"
hate videos on youtube...thats impressive....i think...lol

With Hasbro/Wizards pushing back against the "gamepiece" business model and recognizing the post-covid era as lower and weaker normal, i see a bright future.

Magic remains a great game, with a LARGE player base, and a LARGE collector/investor base.

I believe this is the 7th "TIME" that magic has died...lol

Tremendous opportunities remain for people with patience and control.

Thanks for the endless support and kindness.

Videos + messages + orders are now back on track

Stay the Course.

-Rudy 🐈