~ February 2023 Mid-Month Updates ~

As we move into the heart of 2023, the market "feels" better this year. This time 1 year ago, all markets were in turmoil with the Ukraine/war situation. Inflation was outta control and supply chains were a disaster from covid.

Looking at 2023, my prediction of a good year is holding true. All assets feel less volatile. I am not seeing any "crashes" in the sealed markets.

While the average person is still focused on the next "leg down" or "drop" in the market, the smart money seems to be building positions and accumulating.

The S&P500 has not broken the lows from last year, and we havent seen any major "amazon dumps" on magic. Pokemon is king, Flesh and blood is roaring back, metazoo is stable with upticks. Lastly Weiss sealed has been recovering across the board.

I feel the fed is going to continue with interest rate increases more than the market expects to crush inflation. I dont see rate cuts coming anytime soon.

Lets jump into the Rudy mind!

Magic the Gatheirng - Reserved list - I am now seeing upticks in arabian nights and revised dual lands on all buylists. I believe the low from Magic 30 has already hit. I dont see any major gains happening for a long time. I think the whales are going to slowely be building positions in RL cards. I think the RL will hold strong, and i do not believe hasbro is going to risk another Magic 30 style product. I believe the market rejection was strong enough to prevent it.

Magic the Gathering - Sealed product - Most patrons are NOT buying new magic from me anymore. We are at the lowest percent of patrons buying sealed magic in my patrons history. BUT...in the last 3 weeks, the quantity of people asking to bring on more set boxes / draft boxes is increasing. I believe everyone WANTS to move forward and return to collecting and investing in magic. Hasbro makes it difficult.

Magic the Gathering - Patron Products - I am currently disccusing with distribution on bringing back either a lot of draft box choices or all set boxes and allowing patrons to mix/match that item on the monthly list for the entire month.

Magic the Gathering - Secret Lairs - As much as i cant stand the unsustainable amount of secret lairs, it does feel like long term, these sealed products can become very rare and expensive. I believe the amount of secret lairs being sold is at an all time low. I dont believe most people are buying secret lairs anymore. I expect random secret lairs to have very low supply and become very expensive. It is what it is.

Pokemon - Patron Products - Moving forward, ALL pokemon releases will have SEALED CASES of Elite Trainer Boxes offered to patrons, in addition to sealed booster boxes. This should allow more pokemon sales to occur. Pokemon will never return  to the monthly list due since it sells out within 1-2 hours every release.

Pokemon - Sealed Market - This is the hottest sector of the CCG world. Pokemon has proven they can navigate any market. I view pokemon as the highest quality sealed modern product out there. This is based on brand recognition and management skill.

Pokemon - Price Increases - To remind everyone, starting with next block comign up, pokemon has matched Hasbro with a 10% price increase across the board. This is another reason, every single sealed pokemon product has adjusted upwards.

Flesh and Blood - OUTSIDERS LAUNCH - This is going to be a massive promotion to the patrons. There will be 2 waves of product. Approx 900 kits for release day. Then another 500 kits 3 weeks later. Each purchase will have a case of Outsiders + the Cold Foil Gemkeeper Head Gear. The first wave will be Limit 1 per patron to make sure it stays in stock. After 1 hour, i will allow a second purchase.

Flesh and Blood - GEMKEEPER PATRONS - I still maintain the original patron list of names / emails from the original sale. If you are a Gemkeeper from 2 years ago, then you will recieve a $100.00 discount on the bundle. As stated multiple times over the last 18 months, the $69 discount was removed and replaced with this annual $100 discount for those patrons. This discount will be for the annual Cold Foil gear sales. Once again, this was not recomened by LSS/FAB but this is a special discount i enjoy offering.

Flesh and Blood - Outsiders Promo kit - If you are not interseted in the Cold Foil Exclusive card, then please do not purchase the kit at release. I will offer sealed cases of Outsiders later on after release at a cheaper price without the exclusive card. The Gemkeeper Cold Foil gear pieces are very special to me and unique, NO, they are NOT a free promo, and NO, i will NOT give them away. Yes, i am going to charge for the Promo. I am estimaintg the price of the kits to be $499-$599 shipped range. Including a full case of boosters.

Flesh and Blood - OVERALL MARKET - It has been a LONG time since i have seen chatter and patrons discussing and showing me collections and upticks in singles / Cold foils. This is the 1st time in 1-2 years, i see upticks and money moving back into FaB as collectors/investors have been building positions. What a beautiful sight.

Metazoo - Overall Market - Metazoo remains verey "controversial" in  the CCG world. I have never seen such a polarizing brand in my life. Some patrons hat anything to do with it. While others ask me and coutdown the days for the next metazoo sale. The slow reaction of reducing print runs in 2022 did major damage to the brand during the Wilderness/UFO era. Seance did a sharp cut and turn on supply and rebalancing. Pricing has held up very well considering the overall markets drop. I expect Native to perform very well. With tight print runs and stricter distribution, the sealed product will hold up just fine in the short term. I am curious to see if metazoo can successfully launc the animated shorts and get positive responses and help expand brand awareness.

Metazoo - RISKS - The entire economy of the zoo is going to drip down or spike based on player base changes. If the company can onboard a +10% to 20% increase in player base, the market can move up stupidly fast. Currently products like Nightfall/seance have such low supply. The system is not prepared or seetup to handle high demand. Things could get messy very quickly with crazy pricing. On the other side of the coin, metazoo can NOT screwup right now. They have no buffer and if they release a set that tanks, it can take down the entire CCG. I dont believe that is going to happen, but it is always a risk in the CCG world. At the end of the day, if i didnt believe the zoo had a real chance at something special long term, i wouldnt risk my name/brand and money on buying/selling and holding product.

Metazoo - NATIVE - I know many of you have already been asking about this special launch. The supply will remain at the same as Seance, which is approx 1,300 kits. No where near the previous 2,000 kits from the Wilderness/UFO era. The Rudy card will continue and the theme for this is very unique with "Rudy Cave Paintings" found from the last.

Weiss - Overall market - I love the sealed Weiss market, maybe more than i should. The weiss market bottomed out about 3 months ago at the lows. We have seen many of the 2021/2022 era sealed boxes reocver a lot. Average uptick from the lows are between 10%-50%. Many of which are now higher than release dates.

Weiss - Quitters - I believe many LGS's started over ordering sealed products and i believe many collectors starting buying excess cases to flip. This led to increased print runs in 2021/2022. At this point in time, i think we have moved all the way back to 2020 era print runs in the weiss world. MOST STORES HAVE QUIT. MOST COLLECTORS HAVE QUIT. As with all markets, once the quick easy money is gone, the short term idiots leave immediately. This is 2023. This is a good thing.

Sorcery - Beta Edition Promotion - Once Sorcery completes the Kickstarter product fullfillment. We will be stepping in and building some promo kits for the patrons. Expect to see multiple Sorcery videos later this year. I have been quietly waiting for the kickstarter launch to come to a close. 

Kickstarter - CCGS - Overall, as discussed from 1 year ago. Most of the kickstarter CCG's have failed at this point. I do see a few of them are still holding on and doing ok. But i would say 90% of them have already failed and are done. Once again, i would use extreme caution on this category. This is the high risk penny stock zone.

Lorcana / One Piece - These are new and very "hyped" hot produts. I remain very skeptical long term. Management has ZERO track record of long term success on managing CCG's. Especially Lorcana, most of the people at the top manage board games and other categories. I do not believe they understand the complex dynamics of distribution/secondary market and sealed product. The risk of overprinting and a collapse is very high. Use extreme caution.

Conclusion - The market is a good place right now. Prices remain way down from the highs 2 years ago. Most assets are stable and slowly upticking...which is the way it should have been. The market has tremendous opportunity in it for hard working people who want to build positions for long term. 

Diversification and patience is king.

Never forget, im just a regular dude who bet my entire life on cardboard.

Im not perfect, i make mistakes, but i always try to learn and evolve.

We all mess up, and we all stumble. The only difference is how you react.

Thanks for all the support and sticking with me through the bear market!

-Rudy

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