~ November 2020 - Mid Month Updates ~

2020 is almost over!

Everyones favorite post of the month.

Commander Legends Draft Boxes - As of the writing of this message. 50 of the 69 people waiting on this item shipped this afternoon. I am down to only 19 people waiting on product now. I expect another small restock next week to get caught up. So im proud to say over 3,000+ orders were shipped last week. I do expect slower than normal shipping times due to the holidays.

Commander Legends Collector Boxes - Prices remain very high and supply remains very low. I was notified of a small restock next week also for about 36 more boxes. Nothing impressive at all. If/when wizards releases more of this item, i expect prices to drop and level out in the $220-$250 range. If for some reason they dont distribute more of this product, its going to be a disaster with $350+ box prices within 90 days. 

Jumpstart - I have been notified this afternoon that wave 4 of jumpstart is coming next week. Fingers crossed, its actually a lot of product for everyone! At this time, i still have zero boxes in my posession of this product.

Zendikar Rising Draft Boxes - I should be ready to start selling the 79.99 draft boxes on December 1st. Worst case scenario, its looking like December 8th. I am skeptical at this point in time, if a product like this is going to perform as well as previous standard boxes. 

Zendikar Collector Boxes - I am very bullish on this item. Out of ALL the sealed zendikar boxes, this is the item i want the biggest position in for the long term. The market is very soft on this item, due to the late "UNLOADING" of the rest of the product from wotc warehouse. This has put a lot of downward pressure on the box at a weird time. This is the ONLY way to get foiled expedition cards. These boxes contain a LOT of them. I am building a large personal position in this item.

Zendikar Set Boxes - THis is my 2nd favorite zen item. While i feel the "LIST" is the key to this items long term sealed value. I also feel the "LIST" is going to be a normal thing moving forward and this could dilute the "special feel" of this slot. With the market dropping hard on this item. I do believe building a position in the $90-$99 range is a solid cost basis, the downside risk at these levels is very low, which is very attractive.

Core sets - Core sets across the board continue to sell the worst. I still believe if M21 was renamed to anything else, it would have sold better. I truely think M21 is the best core set in years.

Theros - The curse of Theros continues...the item is a slowe seller, but the collectors boxes have picked up in value recently and the supply has finally been declining. 

Ikoria - I still think this was an amazing set earlier in the year. If ikoria had come out in 2017, it would have rocked the mtg world. Unfortaently, this set came out in the middle of 2020 when the world was in lockdown.

Recent OUT OF PRINT SETS - War/Guilds/Alleg/M20 and soon Throne... are all sets that i am very bullish on. War of the spark is still my #1 pick for long term. I feel this is a $250 box in 24 months from today. With all these boxes still around $100 each, i feel they are something people should have exposure to.

Modern Horizons - This is the "Big set" from a year ago that no one is talking about anymore. I loved this product. With supply slowely drying up, we will have not seen any price increases. BUT i continue to see the quantity on the market decline week over week. THis is a bullish indicator. I feel this is going to take a longer than expected time frame to increase in value. But when it does move, its going to be "fast" and unexpected.

Double Masters/ Ultimate Masters / VIP - All reprint sets are "Stuck" in price right now. I dont see any further price drops or incrases on sealed items in this category for a while now. With a lack of demand for mdoern cards, and a good amount of supply changing hands. This is in a flat period right now. This could last 1-2 years.

Commander products- 2020 had a record number of commander deck sets. I think some of them are going to suprise with huge returns in 2-3 years. But i also believe some of them will be flat priced for a longer than expected period of time. I believe most stores/people holding these items will give up to soon and miss out on the growth of these items due to lack of patience and discipline.

Magic SUPPLY - I really hope 2021 has more stabilization in the flow of product from wotc. The drip supply and delays have wreaked havoc on sealed product price swings. I do not like the large swings up and down on recent products. Stores will make the same profit margins, selling at lower prices if the store is able to sell more of the same product. This makes prices cheaper and a better experience for all mtg customers.

Reserved list - After this years BIG SPIKES to new highes, the prices have leveld out. Unlike 2017, we are NOT seeing much of a retracement in prices. This is strange since previous spikes would normally cool off and drop hard. 

Force of Will TCG - TO my surprise this game continues to move forward. I bought an entire pallet of 500 boxes to see how many would actually sell if i didnt run out of this item. To my surprise 468 out of 500 boxes have sold within 2 weeks. That is really surprising. I am also amazed at how well the sealed box prices continue to stay and also increase in value on recent sets. The tightening of the print run and no reprints has made a huge difference in stabilizing the box prices. 

Pokemon - Continues to be on fire. The demand for new product and the amount of people entering the pokemon hobby is off the charts. Out of every hobby right now, i highly recoemnd beving VERY CAUTIOUS on the new items for flipping/short term investing. The amount of people staying at home due to Covid-19 and flipping items on ebay/tcgplayer is higher than any other time in history. On the other side, i do firmly believe LONG term sealed pokemon will continue to age well. Vintage sealed pokemon boxes will remain king, and i dont think they are in a bubble at all, the lack of supply in 2020 with people cracking boxes is going to keep sealed vintage boxes high.

Flesh and Blood - Well.....yea.....unbelievable. The game that i was made fun up when i first discussed it back in 2019. Literally patrons closed accounts and even 5% of the patrons who purchased the ORIGINAL VARIETY KIT RETURNED IT SEALED, after having buyers remorse upon recieving the item....lol. The holiday variety kit should be ready to go in the next 2 weeks. I very excited to reveal the contents and special Rudy promo. In addition, based on what i know is coming in 2021 with Monarch, i think 2021 will be the year FaB either hits it big or cools off.

Overall Economy/World - I still believe "normal" in the world is not going to come back anytime soon. I believe we are in for another 1-2 years of problems and "shutdowns" This is going to continue to skew the collectible world higher and retail stores/restuarants/small businesses are going to get crushed. I feel inflation is going to be the silent destroyer of most people long term. I expect tremendous inflation in collectibles/real estate and the equity markets around the world. This will continue to skew wealth creation to the people who already have assets and make it more challenging for people to start out and build wealth.

Politics/Culture Wars - With banned cards happening in the middle of 2020 from wotc during the riots/protests. I believe wotc will continue to flow with whatever becomes a hot topic in the media. Overall, this will continue to polarize players on both sides. I do not believe this will impact any financial numbers long term. I do not believe the political environment will change the long term path of sealed product or the reserved list. I expect no postive or negative swings. I do expect emotional/pschyological impacts from individuals. I do NOT expect any more banned cards to happen. I believe that was a black swan event. Everyone must do the best they can to keep emotions out of financial decision making situations, even if/when wizards makes decsisions that anger you.

Conclusion - Magic Continues to boom in a 2020 surreal world. While secret lairs are annoying, and the overload of product feels painful and insulting at times. The game is very healthy. This is laying a strong framework for 2021. With a powerhouse of new products lined up for next year, and a stabilizing world (HOPEFULLY) i expect mtg to continue to grow and all sealed products will perform with above average returns. I think the RL will be healthy and sealed products on all out of print items will have solid increases. I think pokemon will continue to be the news worthy name with the celebrities and "influencers" talking about it. 

But i believe mtg and Flesh and Blood are going to be the real winners of 2021.

I wish everyone a safe and relaxing end of the year :-)

2020 - Stay the Course

-Rudy