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June 2020 Mid Month Updates PLEASE READ

The news of Wizards starting to ban cards through magics history based on non-gameplay reasons is a huge turning point in magic. Combined with Artist being banned from ever having artwork used again is creating an entire new landscape for collectors and investors. A card no longer needs to be "reserved list" to be safe from reprints in a specific form. Cards like original Force of will from alliances and Hanna's ship navigator(foil) are going to become very unqiue pieces with unknown growth potential.


As 2020 culture continues to evolve and negativity and anger march forward. My number 1 concern continues to be the divide of resources and wealth accumulation. In my opinion the massive increase in assets/money for a small chunk of country while the majority of young people are focused on cultural issues is laying the groundwork for a middle class wipeout in terms of finance. When applied to things like collectibles, i continue to notice a l ot of consolidation in vintage cards into less people. I feel 2020 is a turning point with Corona being the icing on the cake. When ALL the large stores started unloading vintage cards and then TURNED OFF all purchasing of old cards. This created a power vacuum and changed the flow of the reserved list cards into strong hands. Now with the world attempting to "re-open" the large magic stores have MINIMAL inventory in high end cards.

So now you combine this with magic being ON FIRE. Prices everywhere are raising for sealed boxes and single cards. To me this feels more like "inflation" vs. true appreciation. Real assets always outperform fixed assets like bonds/debt/CD's in times of money printing and "cultural change"

I personally maintain all collectibles and real estate. I no longer have positions in stocks/bonds for the first time in my life. I hope for everyone that the market continues to rise and everyone does well. But it is no longer something i am comfortable with. The risk simply is not worth the gains for me. I have no problem missing out on overall market gains.


Magic investors seem split in 2 categories, 50% of everyone think we are in an mtg bubble and we will collapse like 90's sports cards. While the other 50% believe the best is yet to come. I personally do NOT believe magic is in a bubble. I think the "bubble" talk is coming from frustration and anger towards wizards due to the massive printing and bad public decisions. The nasty truth is magic is probably healthier now than i have ever seen. 


I was told that war of the spark is now the highest sold/ highest printed standard box in MAGIC HISTORY. Beating out Kaladesh/RtR/khans of tarkir. And yet...the supply is low and the price is strong. That is absolutly mind blowing. The sales data on standard boxes is so high, it doesnt even seem legit. Wizards KNOWS this....wizards KNOWS the market can take more product....wizards KNOWS the 1% will complain online....wizards KNOWS it will sell out and the market will remain stable.


In my personal opinion, MANY patrons stopped buying in larger quantities since they felt it was impossible to keep up. The Corona virus forced stores to wipe out inventory online and raise cash. This dropped prices of Modern horizons/commander/masters boxes etc....in the SHORT TERM. 


TO wrap this up...this has all layed the ground work for continueing sealed box price increases. The transfer of assets/money/wealth in the world and magic the gathering has been amplified by 10X due to 2020. Remember the 1% of anger online never ever represents the 99% of magic players. The sales data represents the RAW unbiased truth.

I have never seen a time where so few stores are keeping sealed product of previous sets.

That data shows historical records even in 2020 and less people are keeping magic sealed.


Moving forward


1,000 additional shirts of all sizes of been ordered. Patrons will get notified before the public. Should be ready in 3 week.


Commander 2020 - will remain in stock for another 5-9 days until i run out. 

Core 2021 Collectors boxes - Will go on sale for preorders next week. A 24 hour warning notice will be sent out.

Core 2021 79.99 standard boxes - Will go on sale in 60 days

Ikoria 79.99 standard boxes - On sale starting July 1st. I highly doubt i will get 1st print run boxes.

Jumpstart - Will be offered at release, no quantity or pricing data available yet

Double Masters - Will be offered at release, no quantity or pricing data available yet



~Pending Negociations~

- 505 x Ikoria Collectors boxes from private investors

- Dragon Ball Super Closeout Products - FAILED - Negociations ended :-(

- 1,505 x Ikoria Pre-release kits 2 distributors who had a lot of WPN stores goe bankrupt

- 500 x Core 2019 Pre-release kits - FAILED

- Argent Saga Expansion Variety Kit

- Flesh and Blood Crucible of War Variety Kit


~Completed Large Transactions for future sales ~

- 600 x Core 2020 Prerelease kits (future variety kit)

- 300 x Theros Prerelease kits  (future variety kit) 

- 600 x Unsanctioned sets

- 600 x Buddyfight

- 1,000 x Cardfight Vanguard 


Boxes ON THE MOVE - UPTICKING

Modern Horizons

Avacyn Restored

Amonkhet

Guilds/Alleg - Cracking $100

Theros Colletors

Ikoria Collectors

Commander 2018

2018 Challenger deck set

Iconic Masters


ITEMS WITH PROBLEMS

Commander 2020 - panic sell / price drops

Buddyfight Card Game (shutting Down and discontinued)

KeyForge - lots of product on clearance and sales tanking

Dragon Ball Super - lots of product on clearance and sales tanking

Final Fantasy TCG - life support


Comments

You should be able to buy anything that is still listed in Rudy’s June Product Listing, so I believe the answer is yes. New listing starts July 1st.

Michael C

Can I still purchase Commander 2020 for 169?

Just watched the new Rudy video on inflation. He talks about people buying anything and feeling good due to making money but he calls this 'inflation' and not a bubble. Someone try and explain the difference? I thought inflation is due to the cost of product just rising (he mentions restaurant prices which makes sense, food prices go up). But this is not the case where WOTC is selling double masters for $300 with 5 spoiled cards 4 months ahead of release. That feels FOMO bubble price chase. Most of the examples other than his restaurant example sound bubblish. Even his uneasy feeling sounds fear of a bubble. Thoughts on how this isn't a bubble?

Your buying at wholesale and selling retail.. what’s the issue ?

OK, so they just banned "Crusade" because it's not PC, but... the new set includes "Cathar’s Crusade". Is this some kind of new marketing? The next Godzilla D.C. PnD?

With buddy fight being discontinued can we just donate to you to have a buddy fight bonfire?

Yes, your opinion is 100% different than some people, like me. I don't want to hear your politics (mostly because you are factually inaccurate), I don't want to hear Rudy's (he's very smart in staying out of all this BS) - I just want to enjoy a game. To enjoy SOMETHING that gets away from the cancel culture of our real world.

Probably Rudy's taco

Eric Tracy-Cohen

Who bought out the entire supply of Hanna Ship's Navigator Judge promo at 20 right after this post and is now selling at 100?

Erik Skiles

I feel like I have a different opinion from most people and it's probably not popular. I think people having their own views is great, but when your views are based around the idea that you believe certain people don't deserve to exist then that's when there are problems. I think WOTC did a smart thing in this current climate, and honestly, from me being from a different, art-driven community I can say for smack certain that yes, Good artists can be terrible people! And it's very easy to brush their wrong-doings under Aunt Beatrice's old basement rug just because. "ooggaaboooga art puuurdy" (I've seen waaay too much of this to be honest) As it's been shown she also hasn't really done a ton of any new artwork recently so we could see this cutting as a natural thing too if you take out her controversial views. Does she make nice art. Yes. Does she pump out the quantity that she used to...not really. I can also see this as a positive for magic. If a game stagnates so does the player base. You want that new blood in a game to keep it chugging along. A small but good start is with artists, who can bring their community into the game. Who can introduce current fans of their art to the game. I know of an awesome artist who did Ikoria art and a bunch of people picked the product up to try it because of that. I know people are outraged and angry she got dropped but looking at it, the change brings more positive than negative. And with that my two sense on this topic. Keep being positive folks and thanks for the news Rudy!

I struggle personally with WOTC's activism, especially when it denies our community artists that are as fantastic as she is just because she leans conservative. WOTC sits on their high horse and preaches to everyone else but their own home is about as diverse as the Partridge family. They do not appreciate their current players and often pander to people who don't even play the game. They ban people from the game that they disagree with on a personal level or in order to virtue signal to the 1% of their players who actually care. I honestly wish that they would go bankrupt and someone else would buy the rights, because they have been flushing the game down the toilet with social justice and preaching to their player base. Just seeing how interesting the art was on the RAGE cards (good video) made me yearn for a game that didn't care if it offended people. Give me sexy, violent art on cards as well as though provoking and beautiful artwork. Lately a lot of the MTG artists have been very same-y digital art (no offense, I actually create my own digital art) that tends to be more realist than expressive. That's why everyone loves Seb, we get reminded of the way art used to be. Why was that player allowed to mark their cards when they could have used other basic lands just to attack one of WOTC's artists? WOTC allows attacks on the people that work for them for years because someone wants to call them a fake term like "TERF" and WOTC wants to virtue signal their support for a random player over someone who has probably brought thousands of people to the game with her gorgeous artwork. I don't get this world anymore.

Thank you for this update. Rudy! This is a wealth of information & I. for one, will STAY THE COURSE!

Rudy you're the best

I have noticed this as well. This is more due to product money flow rotation and is not a bad sign.

The Ikoria Collector Booster Boxes (English) are rapidly crashing and seem to be following a similar financial trajectory of the other “Collector” series. Further, the cheapest Ikoria Collector Booster Boxes (English) listed upon Ebay and TCGplayer are currently displaying a decrease between 11-20% from the former peak price of approximately $280 per display.

The Ikoria Collector Booster Boxes (English) are rapidly crashing and seem to be following a similar financial trajectory of the other “Collector” series. Further, the cheapest Ikoria Collector Booster Boxes (English) listed upon Ebay and TCGplayer are currently displaying a decrease between 11-20% from the former peak price of approximately $280 per display.

These are my favorite posts each month

Derek

Appreciate the update Rudy. The world needs more people like you.

My take on the thought that MTG is a bubble: The game will likely never come to an end. Even if WotC/Hasbro decide to end it, someone will come along and buy the rights to it. If for whatever reason that doesn't happen, MTG is still a product that will be in demand. It's opinion here, but magic's most enjoyable format is draft, and that is most enjoyable with your friends. Nostalgia is a powerful thing, and the reason I bought a box of Time Spiral for about $600 a couple years ago - to draft it with friends. I have no doubt that in another 10 years time, some of the sets we're seeing now will have a similar effect, even if the game is long dead by that point. If you're worried about facing financial ruin if/when MTG is no longer in print, take a look at an actual dead card game. Dragon Ball Z CCG, the original printed by Score. Despite being a long dead CCG, some of the Ultra rares are approaching several hundred dollars because of nostalgia and scarcity. There's a possibility that people are still playing it with their friends. It also isn't draftable, yet booster boxes have a pretty solid value still, likely from hunting Ultra rares. Even that game's version of Fallen Empires (Saiyan Saga - the first set} is over 200 a box, though this again could just be due to scarcity. With mtg being draftable from a booster box, I feel like that alone adds extra value, and I don't think a booster box 5 years in the future will ever be worth less than 79.99, or even the hundred you'll pay at your LGS. DBZCCG itself was pretty enjoyable, though had its flaws, but it had some good things going for it. The foiling on the rares and ultra rares for example, changed styles with every expansion, and honestly are quite beautiful. MTG had a similar style with prerelease promos for a bit, around the Ravnica/Time Spiral/Lorwyn blocks if memory serves. Edit: I suppose DBZCCG isn't exactly dead, but is now being printed by Panini. I bought a bunch of boxes and packs at one point to check it out. The card quality isn't nearly as good as Score's, though the game itself is mostly the same. This means that cards from the original CCG are compatible with the new one for the most part. I have no idea if sanctioned play allows the old cards, or if it's even popular, so take my opinion with a grain of salt. That's something that could feasibly affect the pricing of the older cards. Anyway, I'll wrap this up, sorry for the rant. TLDR: If mtg dies, cards will still hold some value.

Brandon and Aaron

Its a weird time to step back into magic but I love it I only started back this year. The last time was 2016. True about the negative and positive you can do 99 jobs perfect but the one you fail will always be the one remembered. Thanks for the up date. Ps I hope you get the FaB deal through.

That's what I'm talking about. Words go a long way and I truly appreciate the updates and honesty. On a side note, I preordered Ikoria Collector booster boxes on Ebay only to get cancelled at launch due to lack of supply. I just recently got a message from the seller stating he will fulfill my order for the Original price quoted. Interesting.....

Wow, that's a lot to digest. I appreciate your candor and transparency, Rudy.

Thanks for the updates, Rudy.

Philip Aldrich

I understand your perspective, and actually sympathize with it. The following isn't a criticism or a "pile on/your wrong". Just additional food for thought in regards to the themes of your comment. I'd love to hear your thoughts in this regard! I think your aiming in the right direction but you didn't bring up 2 important details. 1. For someone like Rudy (at this point at least) its 10x more important to guard his "net worth" against declines than it is to expose them to gains. And the best way to do that, generally, is in any asset class you are an "expert" in. There are people who successfully invest in almost every asset class but the people who come out ahead generally "stay in their wheelhouse". 2. I think you forgot that Rudy consistently talks about how he is in real estate. Presumably he could easily have hit a point with these assets such that he has a more or less "gaurnteed" financial outlook such that even if all MTG stuff burned down tonight, that he could still support himself and his family. Rudy is an outlier in every sense of the word. That's why we are here.

I'm surprised there's little talk about the Future Card Buddy Fight being discontinued. This is a six year old TCG game that got cut from a corporate standpoint! (I hope you still plan on making cases for the patrons who are interested!) Being in the community of the card game, it seems people are more positive than negative. They see this as a "completed" journey from Bushiroad. Perhaps it's because we saw it coming (trickling down from the cancellation of anime, manga, then TCG). I think it would be worth hearing your standpoint on the investments on the Dead TCG and where to go from here! As far as DBS goes, let us know when you can make some sweet sales to the patrons! (Heck, I'll buy product and let ya open some for the channel) Stay the course!

Being in Seattle BitD I too saw MtG early on and thought "who'd pay $50 for this black lotus card?". "$80 for a box of Beta? lolyeahright..." Hindsight is a mofo

From a financial perspective I can't understand being afraid of the market and being so comfortable with such a perishable, volatile product like the MTG cards. An extremely large portion of the world doesn't play or know magic, doesn't own magic... likely won't ever care to own magic. But the amount of people with 401k's and target date funds, and mutual funds and ETFs and whatever else... much larger. I think honestly, someone like Rudy is in a bit of a different position. For 1, he owns a considerable amount of original product from the A/B/U/AN era. He has an infrastructure set up to not only catalog, but also store, protect and manage his collection while also being a card shop himself... gets access to distributors and inside information (I think?) and basically is just in a worlds different position than someone like myself who would say "Let's pump the breaks on the 401k and start buying sealed magic". Then 10 years from now, my house burns down or my basement floods and my cards are ruined. I know enough to know you have to store them in a way to keeps risk at a minimum, but the average person is going to throw those sealed boxes in a closet or under the bed or down into the basement. I've thought to myself, well what if I just split off and target a few certain products. Like what if I buy 500 sets of the Command 2020 product. Surely with a smaller run, and so many people opening the product to play with, and whatever... in 30 years a full set of 5 decks has to be worth keeping around? Welll... maybe. Provided it doesn't get lost, stolen, or damaged and provided in 30 years someone wants to buy it from me. I struggle with it back and forth... I was so ready to pump that credit card on Ikoria collectors boxes when rudy listed... 9:01 PM... sitting there... thinking, should I get the case? SHOULD I GET THE CASE? Nah... I want it. But. I'd half want to open it, and how do I properly store this thing for 20 or 30 years? Does this lead me down the path to where I need to like rent storage space? Turn the office into a storage room? Buy a bigger house with extra space to store the magic product? Decisions, decisions...

Great update Rudy and always full of nuggets of useful info. I understand Core 2021 will be very popular due to many expensive cards being reprinted for pioneer format now. Some say WOTC is finally making a Core set that has substantial value now. Maybe it'll give other Core sets a breath of life.

Philip Chiu

Funny you should mention the sports card flop. But also there was the overall trading card flop. And magic was coming in pretty much on the heels of that so looking at it as an investment in the first 5 years was tough. I remember going to the card store and thinking no one should be spending $50 on a black lotus or $25 on a Mox. Alpha/betas. In the end I only got my dual lands in a trade, they were valued at $15 to $20 each at the time. Still remember having a hard time assigning that value to cardboard.

I would like 2021 collectors box please and thank you. *Reserved* it's confirmed. You must keep one available for me. Muwahahaha

Matthew James

Awesome update Rudy!

Jim Volin

Not just for the great standard booster prices, but updates like this make being a patron worth every cent. Appreciate all the hard work and information that you give to all of us!

Mike Havermale

Keep getting variety kits for FaB and I'll keep placing orders. MtG is in too rough a place for me to justify putting money in, but FaB is looking to have a strong future once it fully comes into the US.

I’m a fan of these updates with your perspective. We have been in dark, sensitive times for too long. :-( That said, I have a question: is there a chance M21 comes off allocation sooner than later (similarly to M19 and M20)? Or has the Rona impacted your access? Thanks, Rudy!

Stephen Konefal

Same

Travis Stine

*Continuing *laid - god dammit Rudy this is serious! No screwing around with webster!

Joey Morsi

Awesome update, thanks Rudy.

War of the Spark Japanese boxes are more expensive and worth more today than English boxes, and they will continue to be for obvious reasons. This was an area that I felt Rudy was off the mark on during release, the alternate arts have fetched an unprecedented demand worldwide, not just in Japan. Considering a certain mythic in the JP box that has a much harder art pull rate than any usual mythic, which still is selling for $100.

Very well summarized. My investments remain in real estate and sealed product, as well, although I continue to have short-term success playing the commodities market.

I love this. Like getting an MTG newsletter on finance :)

Jonathan Morris

thanks for the info rudy!

S T A Y T H E C O U R S E

Jonathan Morris

When are Ikoria standard boxes going to be ready for videos?

Where else would you see this kind of realistic information about magic sales. Awesome, thanks for the tacos!!

Bob S

DUDE, MY STOMACH IS ON LIFE SUPPORT-- PLEASE NEGOTIATE 1,000 SOFT-TORTILLA PLAYMATS FOR YOUR PATRONS.

DuGiOh

Appreciate this post and appreciate you even more #StaytheCourse

Feed me Argent Saga

That is the most complete information you have ever given. I completely agree and am trying to increase my positions on many sealed products. I haven’t been able to buy from you for almost a year due to problems in my personal finances. I have slowly been digging out and will start buying again. But the worst part now is so many patrons makes it difficult to purchase many of these collector and sale items.

Coldest1

It still has a pretty strong following in Japan from what I could see. Might die outside of that country

Gaige Sheen

I love these mid-month updates. I’ve been increasing positions in all collector boxes and master sets myself for 6 months now. I am concerned what eBay’s new managed payments is going to do for single cards under $2 seeing that they’re cutting out Paypal micro transaction accounts. All in all I can absolutely concur with Rudy on magic is as strong as ever. I’ve personally been able to net 25(TBD)-280%(MB1) from all releases since modern horizons. Stay the course 2020!!

What a loaded post of information. Thanks Rudy.

Jeffrey Ho

This open talk and honesty with the community is the best part of being a Patreon to Rudy. The rest of the stuff is just icing on the cake.

Eric Covell

So I should not sell my horde! of Modern Horizons for $173?

I like dragon ball super. Do you think it will die/be discontinued?

Sad that Buddyfight is going out of print, but understandable considering Bushiroad has Cardfight and Weiss Schwarz, which both are struggling as well, but more popular than Buddyfight. I know the company is also struggling with all the COVID restrictions in Japan as well. I imagine if they make it through these trying times, we'll probably see a Buddyfight reboot in a few years like they did with Cardfight.

Thanks for getting more of the shirts

Rudy probably does follow these minds but wouldn't admit it publically for political considerations.

Impressive mid-month update. I had to grab a new Top Hat to read this. Now I just need the correct shirt....

Aaron

👍

@Rudy you ever listen to Jordan B. Peterson or Ben Shapiro? You got a voice of truth and honesty that people would pay to sit in seats I feel, seriously. TED talk etc. I appreciate the insight and integrity, may you, all other patrons, your loved ones and even so your enemies, prosper in these trialing times and upcoming future landscape.

Brian

You're the best Rudy! We need someone level headed like yourself during times like this where everyone is losing their mind!

Jason Boillot

Great update Rudy! And keep up the great work!

Andy Cohen

I was about to order C20 from a big store when I realized, 1 you still had it in stock, 2 their prices including shipping and fees was silly. :) 1 set please :)

Grey Shirt Guy

English weiss Schwarz fujimi fantasia bunko booster posted ebay 300$?

CallitBreeze

Love updates like this!

Ranson Rivera

Yes to negotiations!

Dragonball Super is the worst, Financially speaking, after each new set, 20$ cards became worthless over night.

I totally appreciate this type of update. Thank you Rudy.

I've picked my sealed investment strategy and will stick to it, going slowly. I will Stay The Course!

Kevin Robinson

I'm not sure how to express my appreciation for the open and honest communication you seek to foster with you community. STAY THE COURSE

Keep it up Rudy!

Even the floppy taco timmys who didn’t get their shirt are getting something. Truly a man of the people Rudy.

How much is commander 20?

Travis Stine

We love you, Rudy! ❤️

Appreciate the update and your positivity during these times. A true friend to all Magic players👍🏼

Crucible of War Variety Kit? Yes please 😊

I put all my money in real tacos.

STAY THE COURSE, RUDY! Also, negotiations** ;-)

Woof. Good thing I put all my money in floppy tacos.

Andy Wilkes

Stay the course patrons.

Sam Allen


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