Bitcoin on Optimized Trend
Added 2025-11-14 05:58:24 +0000 UTCThe monthly BTC chart on Optimized Trend has called every bear market perfectly since inception.
I won’t sugarcoat it — it has just turned down for the first time since December 1st, 2021. If that signal holds, it suggests we never truly entered a real bull market this cycle; it simply lasted a bit longer than usual.
My odds we are now in a Bitcoin Bear Market are now 70% give this indicator... last week it was 30% - and I am very happy to be wrong on this one.
Back in 2023, my bull target was $119K, and while price got there, I didn’t sell. I don’t hold a lot of Bitcoin, and what I do have is locked away, so I can’t touch it even if I wanted to.
I wish I had better news… but this is where we stand. Everything is getting hammered, and this is shaping up to be the strangest Q4 I’ve ever seen.
Comments
Don't buy just yet. All the noobies will be waking up in a few hours and see the bitcoin they bought at 100k plus and freak out and sell.
FWTX
2025-11-14 08:59:44 +0000 UTCI don’t trust tradfi. They are 10x worse than binance and wintermute.
Tobo
2025-11-14 08:59:27 +0000 UTCWell, from James's POV, he gives it a 70% chance that we are in a bear market - not that a bear market is coming. This will most likely mean down trends from here. Lowers lows and lower highs as BTC drops in value until we find a new floor. Some folks think that could be around 70k. CTO Larson is also playing very cautiously. How you respond very much depends on your "time horizon" and if you are only just building a bag now, or if you are in highly volatile ALTs. Personally, I would not want to be in most ALTs right now and I wouldn't be buying. NFA. With you being new and learning, perhaps protecting your assets (protecting you alpha) is key at this stage. Be patient. Learn, paper trade, watch Jane's older videos. It's a great education!
Emel
2025-11-14 08:30:42 +0000 UTCSold all my Solana at 200s omg feels to good not to chase that hopeium bs remember not insulating but James said last cycle Solana wouldnt break threw $100 it hit $8 so be careful out there boys
Greg Leisure
2025-11-14 08:29:28 +0000 UTCHello guys , I’m very new to this . Can you please help me understand the situation This means the bear market is coming ? Is this sell and wait situation ??? How about altcoins will it follow ? I’m trying to learn . Thank you
Cosmin Luca
2025-11-14 08:26:02 +0000 UTCWow
Emioli
2025-11-14 08:17:10 +0000 UTCI feel kinda bummed as its been a ride. Sounds like the wintermute fuckery has played a role too. Nevertheless it’s all part of the journey. Hopefully James and the team can help us grab some bargains if they arise. Curious to see the strategy now. Build some cash reserves ready to deploy perhaps
BarefootBrokeCoiner
2025-11-14 08:15:20 +0000 UTCThanks James - I will rotate into SOL as now bitty's in a bear, it's bound to finally be alt season.
JellyBean
2025-11-14 07:50:21 +0000 UTCSo all indicators were wrong, none of them are useful and round trip one again 😁
Obs3rv3r
2025-11-14 07:50:08 +0000 UTCAll the fuzz about this crypto administration only ended up in them messing up everything. Since trump started to talk about it it’s been hell for crypto, he has really done awful things to the space… Since the beginning I didn’t liked this, when every bitcoin action was based on a tweet and all this treasuries pop up, it’s been feeling like it’s not a decentralised asset anymore but something that rich and powerful people play around with. Sad to see and at this point I don’t know how to feel about bitcoin anymore
Nico
2025-11-14 07:31:47 +0000 UTCHold and buy the dip.
HAL 9000
2025-11-14 07:31:06 +0000 UTC
