Is Bukayo Saka Making "The Leap"

by Scott Willis

I look at Bukayo Saka's radar for the season and feel like it is missing things. When I watch Arsenal he is, and has been, Arsenal's best player this season. Part of that probably is down to the radar style, especially with attacking players where the best can be quite a ways better than the simply "good" players. If we instead look at his "Crab Cake" that matches better with what I have seen from him.

Another thing to remember, and one that was the basis for this analysis was that is performance level has not been static, in fact over the last 11 matches it has been outstanding. Below are the radars for the first part of the season (through Everton, left Radar) and from the most recent part of the season (from Southampton through Leciester, right radar).

Left first half of the season through the Everton match (2021-12-06), Right Southampton match (2021-12-10) through Leicester match (2022-03-13)The difference, especially in attacking output is massive. So let's take a look at how things and his role has changed.

Positioning

A good place to start is with touches and positioning. Like before all images will have the start of the season presented first/on the left.

At the start of the season, Saka was bouncing a bit more between the left and right sides. His pass reception locations on the right were in lane five but also relatively far from goal. In the more recent matches, he has played almost exclusively from the right but has received passes in positions much closer to goal, with a higher share in the box or in lane five near the box.

His average touches match this as well with the early matches showing possession further from goal, with the more recent matches getting closer to goal.

Shooting

One of the biggest differences is that before he was very good at adding threat, but he has taken more of that and turned it into an actual threat on the goal, rather than through just ball progression.

In the graphics above the minutes are roughly the same (the left one actually has a touch more in terms of minutes played by almost 2 full 90's) but over the last 11 matches, he has managed an extra 14 shots.In the first 15 matches of the season, he had 23 open play shots (1.9 per 90), in the last 11 matches, he has taken 37 open play shots (3.5 per 90). That change is huge, going from the 60th percentile among attacking midfielders to 98th percentile. When Arsenal play with a more false 9 type striker, the onus of getting shots has fallen on the wide players and Saka has certainly stepped up.

Creativity

The story with his creativity is similar but not quite as drastic.This was an area he was already performing at an above-average rate but has just taken a little step forward producing a little bit more. On deep completions, he has gone from the 73rd percentile to the 88th percentile. His key passes are interesting I think are a great illustration of how his average positioning getting closer to goal has led to some very good medium value chances created.

So many of his key passes recently have been from him either receiving in the box or driving into the box.

Ball Carrying

One of the things that came up when I posted the radar that inspired this post was that there must be something wrong because the dribbles are too low.What's crazy is that it isn't!Saka has not been the classic take on everyone winger. What he does do, is carry the ball effectively while picking his spots to try to beat his man. His dribbles for the season are only in the 32nd percentile but his carrying comes out in the 77th percentile for carries and 78th percentile for carried distance.

Conclusions

I already was a huge Saka fan but his performances have really gone to the next level where my excitement about what he can be for Arsenal are getting close to off-the-charts levels.It is hard to disentangle what is causing the Arsenal players to excel, but the current run has seen new highs from Saka, Martin Odegaard, and Thomas Partey. This might just be a good run of form from them all but I think this also shows what these players are capable of doing.For Saka, I think that while development for players is not linear and regression is always possible I think he has taken the next step from exciting prospect, to genuine Premier League star. Hopefully, he has one more big step in him where he can become that reach the nebulous level of "World Class".