Guest Post - Evaluating The Changes At Arsenal

A quick intro here...

Rich from discord reached out and wanted to see if I'd be interested in publishing his article about the changes happening at Arsenal. After reading what he wrote I decided it would be a great idea to publish this here because it challenges many of the assumptions I have personally and adds a nice counterpoint to many of the conversations on the discord about whether Arsenal has a plan and whether that plan is intelligent. Feel free to provide some feedback to Rich on discord. I'll make a channel for the article as well. So without further ado I give you his Article.

When given the choice between the truth and the legend, print the legend 

As is too frequently the case, this has been a challenging week for fans of Arsenal. After the glorious FA cup win, your club followed it up with a swathe of redundancies, a scouting cull and all while being linked to a number of Kia Joorabchian’s ageing clients. Arsene had a knack for praising the team’s mental strength just before a humiliating defeat and similarly, this week the club managed to make fools of those of us who thought that we were starting to turn the corner. 

I have my own views on the redundancies that I’m not going to go into in detail in this piece. I’m fairly sure that Elliot didn’t give me this platform to get on my political soapbox. I do agree that the communication was a little clumsy. However, I think that billionaires and the people that enable their existence are more deserving of our ire than the club. Ok maybe a little soap boxing 

Back to the football though…It’s just over a year since Edu joined as technical director. At the time, Raul Sanllehi called it the final piece of the jigsaw. Arsenal finally had a modern executive set-up that should provide the foundation for the club to build for the future. But a year on, the fan angst is palpable.  

If there’s a plan, it hasn’t been communicated in a way that people can digest. That’s led to a situation where almost any news from the club is viewed through a negative lens. I understand why that has happened, but I think it has also led us to miss some of what is happening in plain sight. 

I wanted to look at various aspects of the club, where I think that Arsenal are starting to change the way that they operate and, dare I say it, smarten up. Change takes time though and we are impatient. 

Heads will roll 

In the absence of any better alternatives, let’s start with the most current topic. People losing their jobs. 

There’s been a lot made of the fact that there have been a number of departures in the last year or so. Some of those have held senior positions at the club, while some have been lower ranking positions. 

Of the more senior roles, Cagigao is the most recent (and a couple of other senior scouts), but also the likes of Jason Roesenfeld, Steve Morrow and, most controversially, Sven Mislintat. These have been painted as decisions that take out dissenting voices and allowing Raul Sanllehi to accrue unchallenged control of the club. However, the less sensationalist these take outs look like standard corporate manoeuvres.  

It’s extremely normal for new management to take out the Heads Of in various departments and promote the next layer. Sometimes this is purely a cost-saving measure and it can cost you talent. In my experience though, this more frequently takes out expensive people who don’t add value commensurate to their salaries. Those people might have allegiances to former employers and struggle/refuse to adapt to new leadership. That can look like taking out dissenting voices, but there is a difference between robust challenge and being obtuse.  

Taking these people out opens a pathway for younger, more energetic employees to develop. Much like a football team, at some point, you have to let go of your ageing superstar and make way for the younger, exciting talent. They may not be fully formed at the time they are promoted, but have room to grow. We’ve heard it time and again that to change culture, you have to change people. It’s no surprise that in an organisation that was famously stagnant, there have been a swathe of casualties, and that can be a positive thing for Arsenal. 

Buy high, sell low 

Arsenal’s handling of player recruitment, player sales and contract management has been laughable for a long time. The list of players that Arsenal have bought at the wrong price, sold at the wrong price, failed to renew or renewed on bloated salaries is long. Too long. Frankly, it’s been embarrassing. However, there are some hints that Arsenal may have started to smarten up in this regard. To borrow a Clive-ism, let’s look at the components of the problem statement. 

It’s not what you know, but who you know 

The line that Arsenal prefer a ‘contacts-led’ approach to recruitment has been oft repeated ever since Sven Mislintat left the club, barely a year after his appointment. The story goes that Arsenal have eschewed a modern, data-driven approach so that Raul and Edu can cosy up to their mates and throw fees their way at will. The idea that Arsenal’s approach has to be one or the other paints far too simplistic a picture; it is almost certainly a blended approach.  

There are various articles that hint at Arsenal’s data use, but the clearest evidence comes from Steve Round, our assistant manager, who said: 

“We work with a company called StatDNA which is US-based. I’m not even going to start to begin to understand how they come up with these stats because it’s mind-boggingly boring. But these guys crunch the numbers, look at the data and come up with some fascinating stuff, they really do. Then, I’ll go and watch a player live and I’ll think they were bang on with that, spot on. If I really like the player and think his mentality is outstanding and the data backs it up, then I highly recommend we sign this player. Then you’ve got other factors in terms of money and fees but I don’t have to get involved in that.” 

This is the way that modern clubs operate. Use data to identify players of interest, watch player, get to know the player and their mentality and then figure the finances out. It’s an approach that is increasingly accepted as best practice. Arsenal aren’t gaining a march on the field by working this way, but they, at least, aren’t losing ground.  

The Round quotes are also consistent with something that Raul said, when he gave a club media interview, sat on a sofa with Vinai in crisp white shirts with a few too many chest hairs on show.  

“The data and analytics helps you to avoid making mistakes. The football eye is really important, but data helps you to avoid mistakes.” 

It seems clear that data analytics is part of the approach, but if it is, why are so many of Arsenal’s signings linked to one of a handful of agents. 

The obvious answer that assumes no dishonest dealings by our board, is that having relationships with the biggest agents gets you access to the best players and gives you the ability to do deals expediently. The best agents know how to identify talent (they use data too!) and have helpful information on a player’s happiness, his parent club’s willingness to sell, release clauses etc.  

Clearly there is value in knowing agents, but a number of fans, including some very high profile fans, are extremely uncomfortable with the level of influence that Kia Joorabchian, in particular, has at the club. The argument basically runs that we are being exploited by an opportunist and consequently overpaying for average talent. It’s a short-term strategy that leaves Arsenal using their limited resources inefficiently. To be clear, I understand this concern and the fact that some of the people who are so vocal with their concerns have a stronger connection to the club than I do is worrying. 

However, this is an alternative read of the situation. 

Firstly, Kia is a successful businessman. Generally, the route to long-term success is to build sustainable, mutually beneficial relationships. Taking a club for everything that it’s worth might be great in the short-term, but if you really want to coin it then you want to have a stake in a consistently growing organisation. I agree when people say that Kia’s first responsibility is to his company, but that doesn’t have to be at the expense of the clubs with which he works. We shouldn’t expect favours from Kia, but, generally, decisions that benefit Arsenal in the long-term, will benefit his company in the long-term. 

Secondly, we all know that one of Arsenal’s historical issues has been selling. We’ve overpaid for average talent and now they are sat at the club enjoying indulgent salaries and with no interest in taking a pay cut to move elsewhere. Agents make money moving players in to clubs and moving players out of clubs.  

It would be no surprise if Arsenal suddenly get a lot better at moving players on in the next couple of years. We’ve seen Kia was very useful at moving players out of Chelsea when they needed help meeting FFP guidelines, expect Arsenal to see more benefit in this area in the future.  

It is an idea that makes the signings like Pablo Mari and Cedric intriguing. Raul and Vinai have described the January window as a tactical window in the past and that chimes with picking up these two players at a time when our centre-back numbers were depleted and our RB situation was uncertain. It also makes sense that we would use friendly agents to execute expedient deals to address short-term needs. If these players move on from the club in a year’s time, which is a lot more plausible given their representation, will that change people’s opinions on the business? Having an idea of your exit plan, before you invest is the way smart people do it. 

Sign on, sign on 

If you look hard, there may be signs that Arsenal may have a plan to modernise their approach recruitment and selling. Contracts is another matter though. Players are still allowed to run into the last year of their contracts and we’ve lost millions in pounds with players on free transfers. But maybe there are signs that Arsenal are starting to modernise in this area too and ‘contracts-guru’, Huss Fahmy, is not a total fraud. 

Reports regarding the Koscielny and Luiz contracts stated that they were tapered. Older players, front loading the value of a contract in the early years of the contract and then in the outer years the basic reduces and the value is increasingly loaded in incentives. It de-risks the club if a player falls off a cliff and strengthens their hand when they are trying to move out older players or re-negotiate. Stay here and we won’t play you so the value of your contract is drastically reduced, it makes that move more appealing.  

Add to this the plus one option that we increasingly see in contracts. If the player is playing well approaching the end of the contract and you want to retain for longer, you can offer a longer contract than the plus one option with a greater basic but reduced overall cost. It again gives the club greater control over retention and costs. 

I sincerely hope that this is what has happened with Aubameyang and would also be the format with Willian. The Ozil contract was a parting gift from Gazidis akin to the ‘There’s no money left’ note left by the outgoing Labour treasury for their successors, following the Global Financial Crash. It’s cost Arsenal millions and arguably cost them the opportunity to renew Ramsey at an affordable rate and the current regime has been trying to get out of that deal pretty much ever since it happened. Maybe the executive is dumb and hasn’t learned from that experience, but it is also plausible that they have and they are suitably managing risk in contracts for older players. 

I’ll admit that I’ve had my doubts about Huss Fahmy, particularly during the year long contract drought prior to Saka’s signing. However, and I realise that I’m stretching here, if you are constructing complex contracts such as this, it stands to reason they take longer to negotiate. 

Do you take this club to be your lawfully wedded wife? Edu 

Going back to my favourite interview, at home with Raul and Vinai. This is Raul talking about the technical director role: 

“I’ve always worked with a technical director…it is their job to set the philosophy of the club, to have a strong connection with the head coach, to understand the academy and be across the market, scouting by age and market” 

Maybe it’s just me, but you can almost see the fear in his eyes when he says that he’s always worked with a technical director. At that stage, he was fulfilling a role he had never done before and, arguably, he didn’t do a great job of it. A few months later after Edu’s appointment, he was at pains to point out that this wasn’t Edu’s transfer window. In hindsight, it’s easy to interpret that as an employer protecting his shiny new technical director from criticism, rather than Don Raul taking all the credit for a madness.  

My view on that window was that you can split it into two parts. The first was pre-planned sensible shopping (in place before Sven left?), the likes of Tierney, Saliba Martinelli and maybe Pepe. The second part was patched together after we failed to qualify for the UCL – Ceballos and, most obviously, Luiz. It is funny (and potentially instructive) how the pre-planned deals aren’t attached to super-agents and the last-minute panic buy is. 

Joined up thinking 

The first thing to note about Edu, is the relationship that he has with other members of the leadership team. Gazidis assembled the all-star exec team, but chose not to stay to oversee the development of working relationships and it ended with hobo Sven out on the streets.  

It is interesting that when people discuss Edu and Raul’s relationship now, they talk about a close friendship, but as if it is a bad thing. Chemistry between key decision-makers is critical if you are going to achieve operational efficiency. Add to that Arteta, who has been very clear on his relationship with the board: 

“I have a really good relationship with Raul, with Edu, with Vinai (Venkatesham, managing director) and direct contact with the owners. We know what we want to do. That’s not the issue, for sure.” 

Maybe you believe that there was a gun in his back when he said this, but with what we know about Arteta, who is comfortable calling out under-performing players in the press, I’m not sure that’s his style. 

Much of Liverpool’s success is attributed to data, but really their competitive advantage comes from the way they operate as a decision-making team. Everyone pulling in the same direction and a clear strategy drives operational excellency, and it is no surprise that the mistakes that they have made are few and far between in the last couple of years. 

It took time for Liverpool to get there, but given what everyone is saying about each other (in public at least) the optimists among us can be hopeful that Arsenal’s decision-making gets more cohesive. 

What does ‘E-do? 

A lot of people struggle to see what Edu has done and point to the signings of Mari and Cedric as uninspiring and agent-led. To be fair, I’m very open to the idea that recruitment isn’t Edu’s strong suit. But that’s only part of his role. 

“Safeguard the medium and long-term future of the club” were Raul’s words.  

Medium and long-term can be defined as three to five years and five years plus. It should not be a surprise that we haven’t begun to see Edu’s full impact yet as we haven’t reached the medium-term part of his remit. Add to that the fact that his 100 day plan was blown apart by Emery dragging the team into a mire and year one had a pandemic in the middle of it and it doesn’t take a lot of mental gymnastics to see why he might not have achieved anything that he wanted to in year one. There are hints as to what he has done though.  

Scouting for goals 

The uproar over the scouting dismissals encapsulates perfectly where a large proportion of this fanbase is with the executive. The news leaked that scouts were leaving the club and this made it clear that Arsenal were taking out heads and leaning in to the infamous contacts-based recruitment model. Redundancies are sad and people are allowed to react emotionally.  

However, once your rational brain kicks in, the chances are that this isn’t a powerplay, and recent reporting suggests as much. The idea that you need to or should run a global scouting network in the modern post-brexit, post-covid world is frankly laughable. It’s like a restaturant choosing to offer a menu that covers cuisine from Italian to Indian and everything in between, or a company choosing to advertise in the expensive Coronation Street ad break to access the largest audience.  

Data has helped companies to become more focused and more specific. I receive emails trying to flog me arsenal merch and bottles of red wine, because data tells retailers who I am and allows them to be targeted in their approach.  

It’s the same with scouting. A smart set-up doesn’t have someone camped in France telling you Mbappe is good. 

Alongside a centrally-led, data and video analysis approach, You identify markets that are under-exploited and can provide value and focus your attention there. It’s a model used very successfully by the Red Bull clubs, targeting parts of Africa and Eastern Europe where they believe there is untapped potential. 

It should be no surprise then that we retained our scouts in South America. It’s an under-exploited market in the UK. The looming cloud of Brexit is about to add an additional cost to European talent. We have a technical director with knowledge of the area, relationships with agents that dominate the region so you start to see something that looks like a plan. Or money laundering, it could be money laundering of course. 

The challenges with South America historically have been two-fold. It’s difficult to obtain work permits other than for premium talent and they often struggle to acclimatise in London. 

How are Arsenal addressing that? With a plan.  

• One of Edu’s roles with the Selecao was to convince players of dual nationality that their future lay with Brazil. That knowledge gives a competitive advantage in finding value in this region. 
• David Luiz and presumably Willian are two experienced Brazilians, well-established in London and an available support network for young talent. Martinelli lives in London with his parents. This isn’t Emi Martinez arriving in London from Argentina at 16 with no support network or Wellington arriving with no clear plan for obtaining a work permit and no pathway to the first team. This is starting to look like a structure that may allow Arsenal to generate value from the South American market.    
  
  The other area that we know that Arsenal are targeting is London, specifically youth players. Zeroing in on a region with a high density of talent, low cost of scouting and identifying players with a connection to the area and, hopefully, club. Again, a forward-thinking, focused, cost efficient and Brexit-proof plan.
   

Young love
 

Edu’s role also involves overseeing the connection between the academy and the first team. In a time where funds are limited, maximising the return from the academy has the potential to make a material difference to our net spend either by generating funds or providing ‘free’ talent.  
 

Historically, the hit rate out of the academy has been underwhelming. In the Emirates era, established first team players generated by the academy have been a rare thing. Arsenal’s primary problem with its academy is not the talent in it, but getting that talent to the first team – look at the ex-Arsenal youth players now making careers for themselves across Europe (Bennacer, Malen, and Reine-Adelaide to name a few). The club is trying to improve that hit rate, by identifying the points of failure and putting controls in place to try to smooth the process.
 

Last summer, the club appointed a transition team comprising the U23 coach (Steve Bould), a first team coach (Freddie Ljungberg), the loans manager (Ben Knapper) and a further coach (Sal Bibbo). Some of those moves, the loans manager for example, were long overdue and only served to bring Arsenal into line with established practices. It does point though to a clear attempt to improve the chance of academy players becoming first team players.
 

Going back to my favourite sofa chat, Raul talks about the academy saying this:
 

“It is not just financial, it’s about identity. The most successful teams in history have a strong academy”.  
 

You can see the idea of identity running throughout the club, but nowhere more obvious than in some of the recent appointments. Edu, Arteta and Mertesacker now fulfil three of the most important roles in the club and all three are former players. They understand the club, have a connection to its history and it holds a place in their hearts. You can say that’s a sentimental stance that has no genuine impact on their success, but I disagree. If you are selling the club to young players, potential signings and potential employees, you need to be able to sell its magic and articulate why to choose Arsenal ahead of any other club. People that can deliver that message authentically because they have a clear connection to the club are valuable and so much easier to trust. Again, it points to some clarity of thought and strategy in decision-making.
 

Edu and young talent
 

It’s interesting that Edu’s previous role involved overseeing all of Brazil’s teams. You would think that this involves identifying young talent, managing development, clearing pathways and, in some cases, convincing players that their future is with Brazil and not with their dual nationality. Maybe that is something that Arsenal stand to benefit from.
 

He hasn’t spoken much, but he did give an interview after Saka and Martinelli signed new contracts, with some interesting quotes.
 

On Saka:

“Bukayo came through the academy and I think we did the right process with him - 100 per cent right. So he started with the first team just training, then he came into training even more, then started to be on the bench, then started to play 15 minutes, 20 minutes of games, then he became a very important player for the squad. So the process with him was brilliant. This process is the one we are working really hard on in the club to get it even more with the players. So that's very important for everybody and to send a message to everybody about the way we are working. 

The ways he speaks to everybody is so nice, and I had the opportunity to meet his family as well. When I met his dad, his mum, his brother, I saw where Bukayo has come from properly. The family is similar to him.” 

On Martinelli: 

“Martinelli is a young player, different process but a very nice case as well. We bought Martinelli when he was 17, he didn't come from the academy, but we planned with him to start with our under-23s and then, because he's such a talented player in the pre-season he proved how he could be in the first team, as with Bukayo. Be on the bench, training with the first team to be in the squad, then he proved as well to be an important player as well so it's two different cases but we are really, really happy to have the possibility to renew and to be with them for a much longer period. 

When you are talking about behaviour, attitude, mentality, family, so it's really nice, really nice. I met as well his family, and I saw properly how nice they are, how educated Martinelli has been during that period.” 

And on young players in general: 

“You have to understand the right time to start training, the right time to start to including the players on the bench and the right time to expose the player to play football for the first team. The process is a very big piece for everybody, it has to be done properly, we are working really hard to pay attention on that part, to see even more from the players that we get from the academy.” 

There are two things that come across from these quotes. Firstly, that there is a process for managing players into the first team and it is monitored closely enough that it can be flexed based on development. The second is how he identifies the importance of family and mentality. It hints at a holistic view when appraising talent and an understanding of the conditions that help a player turn promise into a long career. 

On the pod the other day, Ted Knutson talked about how Arsenal had given a presentation on youth player development (using various forms of data to help tailor development plans) at the Tactical insights conference. 

It’s interesting that Arsenal may be using data in this way. Having attended the statsbomb conference last year, data use in youth development is a major growth area. Vosse de Boode from Ajax (one of the gold standard clubs for player development) gave a fascinating presentation that hinted at how they use data analysis to refine young players bio-mechanics. I wonder whether Arsenal are also making interesting strides in less mature areas of data analysis.  

In Arteta we trust 

You can’t give a positive take on Arsenal without talking about the manager. We have appointed one of the most exciting young managers in the game. People that only give reluctant credit to the exec team are being unfair.  

If you truly believe that the leadership is incompetent and too cosy with agents then explain why would they take a risk on a young, unproven coach not represented by Joorabchian or Canales. If you want a comfortable life while dishing out fees to your agent mates then you don’t appoint someone with the ambition of Arteta, his exquisite communication skills and with an established connection with the fans. You’d be making life unnecessarily difficult for yourself. 

It was reported at the time that Arteta’s final interview was more a case of him interviewing the board than the other way round. Assuming that is true and given what we now know about Arteta and his demanding standards, if Raul and Edu were full of hot air do you think he would have still signed the contract? It feels implausible. 

You can legitimately hold the fact that the board were slow to sack Emery and seemingly did so without a plan in place against them. But if you do that and don’t want to give them props for having the courage of conviction to pick him (and also managing to sell the shitshow of a club as a good career decision) then perhaps a bit more balance in your analysis wouldn’t hurt.  

Last words 

The main thing that I’ve learned writing this is that it’s really difficult to write about this in a punchy 1,000 word article. That tells me that there’s loads of depth to this subject, buckets of nuance and too many gaps to fill. I can’t tell you that the negative takes on the club’s hierarchy are wrong because I don’t know. Of course, there are pieces of evidence that support those arguments that haven’t been covered here. However, based on some of the information that is out there, I don’t think that those arguments  are the only interpretation. 

Furthermore, both view points incorporate a great deal of projection. We are filling in gaps and making assumptions about the intelligence and intentions of the board. We would all love some more communication from our handsome Brazilian technical director or even our gravelly voiced head of football. Until they are ready to talk more openly, we will continue to fill in the gaps and some of us will fill them in hopefully and others pessimistically. In the meantime though, a few words from Rudyard Kipling 

If you can keep your head when all about you    

   Are losing theirs and blaming it on Edu,    

If you can trust the process when all men doubt Edu, 

   But make allowance for their doubting too;    

If you can wait and not be tired by waiting, 

   Or being lied about, don’t deal in lies, 

Or being hated, don’t give way to hating (except Spurs), 

   And yet don’t look too good, nor talk too wise: 

If you can dream—and not make those dreams your master;    

   If you can think—and not make thoughts your aim;    

If you can meet with Kia and Canales and not sign a disaster 

   And treat those two impostors just the same;    

If you can fill the unforgiving ninety minutes 

   With five thousand four hundred seconds worth of distance run,    

Yours will be the Premier League title and everything that comes with it,    

   And—which is more—you’ll be an Arsenal fan, my son!