NFL DIVISIONAL ROUND SATURDAY PICKS!

RAMS @ PACKERS

GAME PICK: PACKERS

SPREAD PICK: PACKERS (-7)

ANALYSIS: I have a lot of faith in the Rams defense today - honestly, they could have a pretty good game. Jalen Ramsey has been the best corner in football this year and might be able to at least slow down Davante Adams...sort of. And on top of that, the Rams run defense is ranked third in the league by DVOA as well. This unit is phenomenal, but there is just one problem - even if LA can hold the Packers under 24 points...do people have any faith at all in an injured Jared Goff to put up 25?

If Goff had a fully functional throwing hand, and if Cooper Kupp were not slightly banged up himself with a knee injury, I might actually be inclined to pick the Rams here to win a physical, defensive game in the cold of Lambeau. But alas, Goff is not healthy, and my faith in him to throw accurately any further than 15-yards down the field is practically zero.

It sucks for Rams fans because the misfortune of an injured quarterback late in the season may end up costing them a legitimate Super Bowl run...but I just can’t in good conscience pick them today. Go with Green Bay to win and cover.

RAVENS @ BILLS

GAME PICK: RAVENS

SPREAD PICK: RAVENS (+2.5)

ANALYSIS: This game is fascinating to me because you would think on paper that the Bills are in great shape to win it. Josh Allen absolutely shreds blitzes and man coverage looks - things that the Ravens defense use on nearly half of their defensive snaps (most in the league) - so in theory at least the Buffalo offense should put up a lot of point...right?

Well, maybe not. The Ravens have sort of switched up their style in recent weeks due to some nagging injuries in their secondary, and they are playing a much more bend-but-don’t-break style...or at least they are relative to their standards. Baltimore only blitzed Ryan Tannehill 11 times last week - a season low - but that emphasis on dropping seven guys in coverage rather than leaving their corners out on islands payed dividends. AJ Brown could not beat his double team after the first drive, none of the tight ends could consistently break loose of the Ravens linebackers, Derrick Henry obviously could not get going either against that finally-healthy Ravens defensive line, and overall the Titans offense just stalled time and time again with no real answers.

It was a brilliant defensive performance from the Ravens, and I have a sneaking suspicion that they are going to tone down the blitzes yet again this week and play more zone coverage to keep Allen out of his comfort zone. If they can pull a few pages from the Cardinals play book and use some crafty post-snap rotations or inverted coverages to snag a timely interception on Allen (Arizona picked him off twice, for reference), that could be a monumental shift in this game.

Throw in the fact that the Ravens have a devastating running game and the Bills run defense is below average at best, and I think we have a formula here for a Ravens upset. It’s a risky bet, obviously, but I just have a gut feeling that this weekend is not going to be the last time we see Lamar Jackson play this season. Ravens win by 3.