NFL Week 8 Game Picks!

My apologies for getting these out so late (again). This week was pretty crazy with the evacuations from the fire, so I've been trying to play catch up at work every since I was able to come back to my house. I hope y'all have a great Sunday!!!

GAME PICK RECORD: 69-36-1

SPREAD PICK RECORD: 55-44-5 (51.6% win rate vs the spread so far. 55% is considered a top-tier hit rate, for reference)

FALCONS @ PANTHERS

GAME PICK: PANTHERS

SPREAD PICK (from Thursday): FALCONS (+1.5)

VIKINGS @ PACKERS

GAME PICK: PACKERS

SPREAD PICK: VIKINGS (+6.5)

ANALYSIS: The Vikings are (still) extremely banged up in the secondary with both Mike Hughes and Holton Hill out,  which means we are going to be seeing A LOT of Cam Dantzler matching up on Davante Adams today...which is not something that I expect to go well for the rookie. Green Bay is dealing with a ton of injuries themselves including Aaron Jones, David Bakhtiari, both of the Smith brothers, and Darnell Savage - so I wouldn’t be surprised if this game is close - but when push comes to shove I’ll take Aaron Rodgers pulling out a win against an extremely thin secondary 10 times out of 10.

TITANS @ BENGALS

GAME PICK: TITANS

SPREAD PICK: TITANS (-7)

ANALYSIS: Joe Burrow is very, very good at picking apart zone coverages, but the Titans run zone in a way that young QBs - even ones as good as Burrow - really struggle with. There’s lots of rotations, lots of simulated pressures built in to the coverages, lots of looks that I highly doubt Burrow has seen before...this entire game is going to be a learning experience. I think the Titans win by 10 and Burrow gets thoroughly beaten up in the process (again), while Derrick Henry does his thing and rolls right over that Bengals front seven.

JETS @ CHIEFS

GAME PICK: CHIEFS

SPREAD PICK: JETS (+20)

ANALYSIS: The Jets are going to lose this game. Maybe not by 20, because Andy Reid tends to take his foot off the gas once he knows he’s going to win...but the Jets are going to lose. Fire Adam Gase and just end this misery, please.

COLTS @ LIONS

GAME PICK: LIONS

SPREAD PICK: LIONS (+3)

ANALYSIS: I really, really like this Lions offensive line in pass protection. Their battle against the Colts’ pass rush is going to be one of the most entertaining matchups of the day, and it’s one that I truly think Detroit can win. Keep an eye on Jonah Jackson - their rookie right guard. That guy is going to be a Pro Bowler not too long from now. If the Lions can keep Stafford upright (and I think they can), I believe he can pick apart these Indy zone coverages little by little and score just enough to win this game. I know that the Colts are getting back Michael Pittman today, which is a big deal for them as well, but I just have a good feeling about the Lions here. I’ll go with my gut.

STEELERS @ RAVENS

GAME PICK: STEELERS

SPREAD PICK: STEELERS (-4)

ANALYSIS: I think the Steelers might be the best team in the AFC right now. Their defense is phenomenal at stopping the run, and if you’ll remember what happened in 2019, the black and yellow were one of the ONLY teams throughout the entire season to make Lamar Jackson look mortal as a passer as well. If Big Ben played in that game last year, I honestly think they would have won. Fast forward to this year when they *do* have Ben, and we are finally seeing just how complete and dominant this Steelers squad can be. Don’t get me wrong, the Ravens are amazing, but right now I’m taking the Steelers to beat *anyone* until proven otherwise.

RAMS @ DOLPHINS

GAME PICK: RAMS

SPREAD PICK: RAMS (-3.5)

ANALYSIS: I really like this young Dolphins squad. They have a very solid pass defense anchored by their amazing secondary, they’ve got some weapons that I love on offense in Parker, Gaskin, and Williams, and of course how could anyone *not* be excited about Tua? There’s a lot to love with this Miami team, especially for the future, but for just this week I don’t feel confident on betting on a rookie quarterback in his very first start to go out there and beat one of the most dominant (statistically) defenses in the league that often uses 3-3-5 and tite fronts that are literally designed to beat what Tua is good at - RPOs and quick passing from the spread.

Would I be completely shocked if Tua pulled it off by picking on everyone not named Jalen Ramsey in coverage and getting the ball out before Aaron Donald could completely wreck the game? No, that wouldn’t really surprise me...but am I willing to put money on that happening? Not yet, at least...

PATRIOTS @ BILLS

GAME PICK: BILLS

SPREAD PICK: BILLS (-4.5)

ANALYSIS: The Pats have no weapons, no Stephon Gilmore, and sharply declining offensive line, and a quarterback that has not looked the same since the first few weeks of the season. I have no idea how New England is supposed to win this game. The Bills have also seemingly filled their hole at number two corner across from White as well now that Dane Jackson is activated again, so I *really* don’t know how the Pats are supposed to move the ball today now that Buffalo has finally fixed one of their few true weaknesses. The fact that this line is still less than 5 points is a true testament to Bill Belichick’s ability to coach, because I just don’t see any path for the Pats to pull this one out. I think Buffalo wins by double digits.

RAIDERS @ BROWNS

GAME PICK: RAIDERS

SPREAD PICK: RAIDERS (+1)

ANALYSIS: The Browns are a little bit banged up right now, just as the Raiders are finally getting healthy again. Trent Brown should be back after being activated from the Covid list, which is huge for Derek Carr, while Cleveland is still without Wyatt Teller, Austin Hooper, and obviously Odell Beckham is lost for the season as well.

I expect the Browns to be given a HEAVY does of Josh Jacobs today considering their fairly average defensive line against the run, and I also think this could be yet another Henry Ruggs breakout game too. The Browns are going to be in a ton of single high shells today (because they can’t do anything against the run otherwise), so I envision a scenario where Vegas gets Ruggs matched up on a play action bomb on 1st and 10 against Terrance Mitchell, who runs 4.6 on a GOOD day. Threaten the free safety with a few of those shot plays to loosen things up, and then start ripping Darren Waller right up the seam once the safety starts cheating over to Ruggs. That’s the formula for a win here, and I expect the Raiders to follow it.

CHARGERS @ BRONCOS

GAME PICK: CHARGERS

SPREAD PICK: CHARGERS (-3)

ANALYSIS: Justin Herbert has been extremely impressive so far this year, even if the Chargers haven’t won very many games. He’s been poised under pressure, very accurate down the field, and obviously his mobility has been a factor on designed runs as well. I know that he’s maybe due for a “bad game” eventually like most rookie quarterbacks, but I don’t think it will be this week. He’s well on his way to being the rookie of the year, and I don’t think Denver is nearly healthy enough to keep up with him once he starts dropping bombs deep down the field.

SAINTS @ BEARS

GAME PICK: SAINTS

SPREAD PICK: BEARS (+4)

ANALYSIS: Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders are STILL not playing, which is *slightly* concerning when I’m picking the Saints to win, but ultimately I did pick New Orleans because I have *zero* faith in Chicago moving the ball consistently. Their offensive line has been horrible for the last month, Matt Nagy’s play calling has been suspect at best, and Nick Foles hasn’t been accurate on shots down the field that could give his offense much needed chunk plays. Nothing about this Bears offense works right now, so even though I’m not super enthusiastic about the Saints either without Thomas and Sanders, I can’t in good conscience pick against New Orleans here. I think the Bears defense is good enough to keep the game to a field goal, but if Chicago actually *wins* today, I will be (pleasantly) surprised.

49ERS @ SEAHAWKS

GAME PICK: 49ERS 

SPREAD PICK: 49ERS (+3)

ANALYSIS: Russell Wilson is playing at a level right now that we’ve rarely seen seen from any QB before. He’s on pace to throw almost 50(!!!) touchdowns this year, and I don’t see him slowing down anytime soon. Buuuut that being said, the 49ers might be able to slow down Tyler Lockett a little bit if Jason Varrett shadows him (he probably will). Varrett has been one of the very best corners in the entire league so far this season, so if he can at least limit Lockett out on an island while the double team is rolled to D.K. Metcalf on the other side, the Niners have a good shot at stopping this Seahawks offense. Plus, Jamal Adams might not be playing yet again today, so I am not super optimistic about the Hawks being able to stop the 49ers run game or stopping George Kittle either. Overall, this game is just kind of a bad matchup for Seattle, and I feel good about the 49ers’ chances to upset their arch rivals on the road.

COWBOYS @ EAGLES

GAME PICK: EAGLES

SPREAD PICK: EAGLES (-10.5)

ANALYSIS: The Eagles are getting a slew of players back from injury today including Dallas Goedert, Jalen Reagor, and Jason Peters. Don’t get me wrong, Philly is NOT a great team at the moment, but with them (finally) getting healthier and with Dallas being completely inept in basically every way possible, this has all the ingredients for your classic “get right game”. I think we see Reagor go over 100 yards, Wentz go over 300 yards today, and I think the Eagles defense forces a couple of turnovers from the relentless pressure they’ll inevitably generate against this banged up Cowboys line. Philly wins by two touchdowns.

BUCCANEERS @ GIANTS

GAME PICK: BUCCANEERS

SPREAD PICK: BUCCANEERS (-13)

ANALYSIS: Write up coming in the morning after injury information is updated.