Week 6 NFL Game Picks

2018 PICKS RECORD SO FAR: 41-23 (64%)

BUCCANEERS @ FALCONS

The Falcons continue to deal with major injuries this week. Devonta Freeman and Grady Jarrett are both out, and even though this matchup is in Atlanta and the Falcons are absolutely in a must-win scenario, I fear that their horrific injury luck will cost them yet another close game this week. I would not be shocked if both teams score 30+ points in this game, so it’s not like it will be a blow out, but in the end I think that the Bucs will get the ball last and march down the field to win by a field goal. All of those Falcons star defenders getting hurt will likely be the difference on that “game-losing” drive. 

CHARGERS @ BROWNS

This is a sneaky huge game. The Browns have a ton of talent on both sides of the ball, and were it not for some really bad luck (in more ways than one), they might have one of the best records in the entire league. On the flip side, the Chargers are also extremely talented and have all the firepower they need to keep up with Baker Mayfield. In my opinion, the key to this game is the matchup between Denzel Ward and the Chargers wide receivers. Philip Rivers lives and dies by how well he connects with Keenan Allen, and Mike Williams is a dangerous threat in his own right. If Ward can at the very least *limit* Allen’s production – especially on third downs – then I think the Browns have a really good chance to pull away on offense and seal the deal here. Give me Cleveland by three points. 

COLTS @ JETS

Andrew Luck is reinventing himself as a “dink and dunk” field general, and he’s finding a lot of success in doing so. Even with all of Indy’s injuries to their skill position players this year, Luck is still moving this offense extremely well; and even though he is without T.Y. Hilton this week, I still have confidence in him to put up points against an equally banged up Jets secondary. Gang Green is going to be a tough out of course, especially since the game is in New York, but I just have a gut feeling that we’re going to see a vintage Andrew Luck “I’ll do it all by my damn self” performance this Sunday.

SEAHAWKS @ RAIDERS

The Seattle offensive line is playing much, much better now (just as I thought they would), and if you give Russell Wilson protection and Doug Baldwin that much longer to get open, good things tend to happen. The Seahawks damn near knocked off the Rams last week, who are arguably the best team in the league, so I feel really good about their chances against Oakland. The Raiders have a lot of exciting talent in their own right of course, but at the same time I just don’t think that they have been able to get out of their own way this year. Something is off with Derek Carr, and I don’t think the team has the defense or the run game to make up for some of the critical mistakes he’s made in big moments this season. In the end, I think Seattle’s advantage at quarterback will be the difference in this one.  

PANTHERS @ REDSKINS

Yikes….last Monday night was truly brutal to watch for Redskins fans. The offense couldn’t sustain any drives, while the defense could never, ever get off the field. You could say that part of that blow out was just the Saints being a better team – which is true – but I also think that the schematic and personnel limitations of the Redskins are really starting to show themselves. I’m not sure that they have enough raw talent to correct their current course, and they certainly don’t have as much raw talent as the Panthers do. It would take a lot of really weird stuff for Washington to win this game – at least just based on all of the personnel advantages that Carolina has – so give me the Panthers by at least a touchdown. 

BILLS @ TEXANS

As I broke down on The Film Room this week, the Texans offense is actually really, REALLY good…they just can’t seem to execute in the red zone. Eventually I do think that the offense will figure out their issues and start firing on all cylinders – and that might even be this week – but the offense is not really the reason that I’m going with Houston here…it’s the defense. The Bills have basically nothing around Josh Allen right now, and I have next to no confidence in Buffalo’s offensive line to block J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney for four straight quarters. Even though the Texans have had a lot of issues in their secondary, Allen probably won’t have enough time to throw the ball to exploit them anyway. The Bills defense is way, way better than people think they are, but with so little support coming from their offense to keep them fresh and off the field, I don’t think that they alone will be enough to secure a victory for Buffalo. Mark me down for Houston.

CARDINALS @ VIKINGS

One way or another, this is probably going to be one ugly football game. The Cardinals are extremely inconsistent on offense, while the Vikings are extremely inconsistent on defense, and when you mix those two inconsistencies together you basically get a completely unpredictable matchup. My gut says to lean Minnesota solely because of the strength of their roster, but would you be AT ALL surprised if the Cardinals won here? I sure wouldn’t – that would be the most quintessential “Vikings” loss of the season, even more so than the loss to the Bills. So yeah, I’m going with Minnesota in this game, but I really don’t feel good about that pick either. Something smells fishy here. 

STEELERS @ BENGALS

I think the Bengals are the best team in the AFC North right now. Cincy’s defense has been up and down all year, but their offense has been more than good enough to carry them anyway. The loss of Tyler Eifert (again) is tragic, but with how well A.J. Green, Tyler Boyd, and Andy Dalton have been playing, I don’t think that it will hurt the team that much overall. As long as the Bengals running game can stay somewhat consistent to keep the offense balanced (heath issues in the backfield or not), I think the Bengals can win in a shootout at home. Look for both teams to top 30 points, with Cincy slightly pulling away in the fourth quarter. 

BEARS @ DOLPHINS

This is actually a tougher game to call than you would think. I’m still ultimately going with the Bears because I’m in love with that defense and they are way healthier, but the Dolphins are a really well coached team and have a lot of sneaky good talent on both sides of the ball. It actually wouldn’t shock me at all if this game turned into a Minkah Fitzpatrick coming out party for a surprise upset win, but when you also consider that literally 20% of the Dolphins roster was on the injury report this week…that upset win is probably unlikely. Put me down for the Bears getting a crucial road win to keep pace in the NFC North race. 

RAMS @ BRONCOS

This one is pretty self-explanatory. The Rams are the best team in the league, even with some of their key injuries right now, and I don’t think that the Broncos have enough to pull off the upset. Sean McVay is too good of a head coach, Jared Goff is too good of a quarterback, and Todd Gurley is too good of a…well…everything. LA stays undefeated. Also, random side note – I really like this Broncos rookie class for the future. They might lose this week, sure, but keep an eye on these kids. They are really damn good. 

RAVENS @ TITANS

If the Titans are good at one thing this year, it’s dragging their opponents down into the mud and forcing them to play really ugly football games. The Ravens have traditionally been at their most comfortable in those messy, wild, and incredibly physical matchups, so overall I’m actually really, really excited for this game. I think we’re in for an old school slobber knocker in Nashville between two teams that LIKE to play in that style, so even if there are not that many points scored I think this will be a highly entertaining three-ish hours. I favor the Titans by a nose in this game solely because they are finally starting to get healthy again (and a healthy Titans team is super dangerous), but man this one could go either way. Give me Tennessee by less than a field goal.

JAGUARS @ COWBOYS

Speaking of extremely ugly football games with not many total points scored…that’s probably what is going to happen in Dallas as well. The Jags and Cowboys both have two of the best defenses in the league to go along with average at best offenses, so I wouldn’t blame you for taking the under in this game (it’s 40 on MyBookie, by the way). That being said though, I shockingly have more faith in Blake Bortles than I do in Dak Prescott to rebound from last week’s disappointments, so I’ll favor the Jags ever so slightly as the road team. It won’t be an easy win, and anything is possible as long as the Cowboys have Ezekiel Elliott and Demarcus Lawrence on their side, but overall I feel more comfortable with Jacksonville’s offense than I do Dallas’. 

CHIEFS @ PATRIOTS

This is the game of the season so far - two AFC heavyweights clashing in what very well could be a championship preview of what we see in January. I have zero expectations of witnessing any good defense in this game, so ultimately I think the winner will be determined by which offense can consistently set the pace and force the other team to answer the bell. Setting the pace and forcing teams to keep up has been Kansas City’s mantra all season long, so I think the script for this game plays right into their hand. If Tom Brady wants to get into a shootout, he is more than capable of winning that kind of game of course, but man it’s tough to pick against a quarterback like Patrick Mahomes. This kid was one of the kings of the Big 12, where “defense optional” shootouts were what he did BEST. Bet against him at your own peril.

49ers @ PACKERS

If Jimmy G were healthy this would be a much, much more interesting matchup, but instead we’ll likely get to see the Packers have a “get right” game under lights before their big showdown with the Rams next week. My only real question for Monday Night is whether or not the Packers will finally start to feed Aaron Jones, because if they do he could become a truly instrumental piece for them down the home stretch this season. Aaron Rodgers always takes his game to a completely different level whenever he gets support from his defense and his run game, so if Jones can provide that support then there is really no limit to where this team can go. Keep one eye on that storyline as the season progresses.