Week 3 NFL Game Picks

2018 PICKS RECORD SO FAR: 19-14

BILLS @ VIKINGS

The Vikings are 17-point favorites to win this game, and I think that’s just about right. I would probably have Minnesota winning by more if Dalvin Cook and Everson Griffen were not already ruled out with injuries, but honestly the Vikings don’t need either of them in order to win this game handily. This is the perfect recipe for a “get right” game after that disappointing tie against the Packers last week.

GIANTS @ TEXANS

This is the classic desperation battle that we see every season between two 0-2 teams. Unfortunately for the Giants, however, they are coming into this game (which is on the road mind you) down their best pass rusher and number two corner to injuries, while the Texans are almost entirely healthy outside of some minor ailments to depth players. Both teams cannot protect their quarterback worth a damn so anything is possible for both of these defenses, but overall I think the Texans are just the more talented (and healthier) team right now. Give me Houston by three.

PACKERS @ REDSKINS

Washington looked really, really inconsistent last week in Indy, but it’s tough to tell how much of that was the Skins offense being bad and how much of it was Colts LB Darius Leonard being awesome. Either way, I still don’t think the Skins can have that much success on offense without getting the run game going, and the bad news for them is that literally their entire offensive line has been banged up to varying degrees this year. Combine that with a very stout Green Bay defensive line and some guy named Aaron Rodgers still slinging bullets on only one leg, and you have yourself a recipe for a Packers road win in Maryland. 

49ERS @ CHIEFS

I expect this one to be a barn burner of epic proportions. Now that Marquise Goodwin is back and semi-healthy, the 49ers offense should be firing on all cylinders; and they are going to need all the explosive plays they can get to keep up with Pat Mahomes and the Chiefs. I would not be remotely surprised if both teams go over 30 points in this one, but ultimately now that the Niners are getting two of their best players back (Goodwin and Reuben Foster), I think they have the narrowest of edges in this game. It could really go either way, but in the end I’ll take San Francisco by a field goal or less. 

RAIDERS @ DOLPHINS

The Fins are playing up to the level that I expected them to in my preseason predictions episode, but rather than losing close games like I thought they would, they’ve actually *won* them. People thought of Miami as some sort of bottom feeder roster this year, and for the life of me I still have no idea why. Kenyan Drake is an extremely talented running back, you could do a lot worse at receiver than Kenny Stills and Danny Amendola, and Ryan Tannehill is nowhere near as bad at quarterback as some members of the media constantly claim. Is their offense or defense a top tier unit individually? Absolutely not, but they are both good *enough* to win games, and right now I would take that Dolphins roster and coaching staff over the Raiders roster and coaches in a heartbeat. 

COLTS @ EAGLES

Carson Wentz making his grand return could be just what the Eagles need to bounce back in week three, but unfortunately they are dealing with a truly devastating number of injuries *other* than their quarterback right now that could still hold them back. The Colts are still missing left tackle Anthony Castonzo, but that’s really their only “major” loss on the roster at the moment, while the Eagles will be without Jay Ajayi, Mike Wallace, Timmy Jernigan, Darren Sproles, and *maybe* even Alshon Jeffrey, Jason Peters, and Corey Clement on top of that. Yes, the Eagles are at home, and yes, when healthy they are the better team. But they just simply *are not* healthy right now at all, so I’ve got to lean towards the Colts in this one.

TITANS @ JAGUARS

Just like the Eagles, the Titans are still slowly recovering from their injury apocalypse at the start of the season. Even though they were able to out-coach their way to a win over the Texans in Nashville last week with plays from the Wildcat and a touchdown on a fake punt, I don’t know if they will be able to get away with that twice in a row, let alone on the road. The Jags are the class of the AFC at the moment, and their defense is hungry for revenge on Derrick Henry after he ran over them last season. Put me down for the Jags by a touchdown, and possibly even more than that if Marcus Mariota does not play.

BENGALS @ PANTHERS

The Bengals have lost a pair of critical offensive players for week three in Joe Mixon and Billy Price (who is probably the more important of the two), and that spells trouble when going to face an elite front seven on the road in Carolina. I don’t think there is a single DB on the Panthers roster than can cover A.J. Green, sure, but I don’t think those DBs will have to worry too much anyway if Andy Dalton is getting killed on every snap before he can even release the ball. This game smells like a defensive slugfest, and usually I’ll side with the Panthers in that kind of game every time…especially when they are playing their first home game after a devastating event in their own community. 

BRONCOS @ RAVENS

It wouldn’t be the Ravens if they weren’t already dealing with several star players being unavailable by week three. C.J. Mosley is banged up and might not be able to play, Jimmy Smith and Anthony Averett are out, and run-plugger Michael Pierce seems unlikely to go as well. I can’t remember the last time the Baltimore defense was fully healthy, to be honest, so I guess this trend is nothing new. The Broncos, meanwhile, are off to a hot 2-0 start on the strength of their defense and run game (as usual), and they are in a far better health and depth situation than the Ravens right now. Case Keenum always has the potential to throw a hand grenade into this prediction if he has a bad game, but I feel pretty confident in the Broncos stealing one on the road this week against a depleted and regrouping Ravens roster. 

SAINTS @ FALCONS

I give up. I have no idea what either of these teams are right now. When I pick the Falcons, they lose. When I pick against them, they win. Matt Ryan’s inconsistency is absolutely maddening to watch because I can never tell if we are going to get good Matt or bad Matt, and it makes the Falcons an impossibly unpredictable team. The Saints, on the other hand, got taken down by the Bucs in week one and *almost* lost to the Browns in week two, so it’s not like they are in any better of a position right now. Ultimately, all I can really do is just side with the injury reports and the tape that I have watched so far, and both of those things are telling me to go with the Saints. The Falcons are extremely beat up right now, and I just have zero trust in both their quarterback and play caller to have good games from week to week. Drew Brees and Sean Payton are more trustworthy commodities, and even though they are on the road, at least I know what I’m going to get with them. I can’t say the same thing for Atlanta anymore.

CHARGERS @ RAMS

The Rams look absolutely unstoppable. Offense, defense, special teams, play calling, all of it. They are a freakin’ juggernaut, and even though I like the Chargers a lot this season, there’s damn near zero teams in the league that I would pick over the Rams in LA right now. I think the first half is close, but after half time the Rams turn on those third quarter afterburners and pull away. They’re just too talented and too well-coached for the Chargers to handle right now.

BEARS @ CARDINALS

Yikes…the Cardinals are a mess. They can’t run the ball, they can’t throw the ball, they can’t block, they can’t do anything. And on top of that they are going to be starting a backup right tackle this week against Khalil Mack, who seems to be on a mission to strip sack the entire NFL this season. Mitchell Trubisky’s play on the field has been somewhat less encouraging than I expected so far this year, but with how well his defense is performing I really don’t think the Bears need much from Trubisky at all to still win this game. It would take a truly herculean effort for Sam Bradford to pull off the upset, but considering that it *is* Sam Bradford after all…well…I’m pretty confident in Chicago in this one.

COWBOYS @ SEAHAWKS

This is the hardest game of the week to predict for me. It’s an even money line despite the game being in Seattle, and that’s for good reason. Both the Seahawks and Cowboys offenses have had periods of not being able to get out of their own way, and both of their defenses have had really good overall performances in back to back weeks despite not having as much “star power” as in past years. I do think that the Cowboys have a better defense than the Seahawks (and a deeper bench, at that), but the Seahawks have unquestionably a better quarterback, and arguably a better head coach as well. Throw in the formidable home field advantage in CenturyLink Field and the fact that this is the Hawks’ home opener, and it’s making me really, really want to take a shot on Seattle here. I know that nobody likes to bet on 0-2 teams, especially when they give up 12 sacks in two weeks, but my gut feeling says to trust Russell Wilson this week. I truly believe that he can pull this win off simply because I’ve seen it so many times before, so I’ll let my money ride with him.

PATRIOTS @ LIONS

The Lions are all over the damn place both offensively and defensively, and I feel like we are right back to where we always end up with this team. There’s no cohesion, and no identity to build around, and it’s driving me up a freakin’ wall (again). I’m not even a Lions fan, but at this point seeing them STILL not have a consistent run game despite all of their offseason investments in that area is just insanity to me. YOU HAVE KERRYON JOHNSON ON YOUR ROSTER – USE HIM PLEASE. Ugh…but anyway, I digress. The Patriots are a well-oiled machine that know exactly what they are and what they want to do, while the Lions are still seemingly weeks away from figuring that out. I feel like we won’t find out what kind of team Detroit really is until October, so until then I’ll just roll with the Patriots. 

STEELERS @ BUCCANEERS

Oof, the Steelers seem to be a mess behind the scenes right now while the Bucs are as strong as ever. Ryan Fitzpatrick has completely taken command of the offense (and the entire locker room as well, honestly), and all of their weapons have performed brilliantly so far in the first two weeks of the season. Everyone is contributing in big ways – Evans, Jackson, Godwin, Howard – and when this passing game really gets going I don’t know if there are too many defenses out there that can match up with them talent for talent. The Steelers sure as hell can’t at least – we all know that – so mark me down for the Bucs to cap off one of the most remarkable 3-0 starts that I can remember on Monday night. If you told me this would happen three months ago I would have called you a big fat liar, and yet here we are.